Home teams should prevail Saturday

Saturday's playoff games may appear to be rematches of last weekend's regular-season finales, and that may be accurate in the case of the Jets and Raiders. But the Bucs and Eagles showed little that will be useful this time around.

The Eagles know all about the Bucs' defense. John Lynch is the heart and soul of this dangerous unit. He's near the line of scrimmage against the run and back deep against the pass. And he'll be far from alone, with Warren Sapp in relentless pursuit of Donovan McNabb and Derrick Brooks haunting Duce Staley every time he touches the ball.

The Bucs' offense is another story. Tony Dungy loves giving the ball inside to Mike Alstott and with Eagles DT Hollis Thomas gone for the year, I expect a lot of conservative play-calling. Keyshawn Johnson may not like that kind of offense, but Dungy knows Philadelphia's defense is all about pressure, especially from the outside, and he won't put too much responsibility on pocket-passer Brad Johnson if he can help it. The Eagles feel their corners, Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor, match up well with the Bucs receivers and that means man-to-man blitz calls all day long. Hugh Douglas will be a problem for LT Kenyatta Walker. Points and yards in this game will be hard to come by for both teams.

The Jets and Raiders both came away from their Sunday showdown having learned some valuable lessons. Oakland coach Jon Gruden now knows that he must get the ball to his Hall of Fame receivers. Last week the Jets' zone kept the Raiders from even attempting a pass to a wideout until the last play of the first quarter.

Gruden also knows he must control John Abraham. If the Raiders get in too many passing situations, Abraham could become the star of this game. Screens to backs and quick slant routes become the order of the day if Abraham becomes unblockable. Of course, Oakland also has to contend with injury issues surrounding Charlie Garner. I look for Tyrone Wheatley to get about 15 carries and he could be effective against a defensive front that has struggled against inside runners.

The Jets absolutely need more production out of Curtis Martin than the 50 yards he gained last week. Otherwise, Vinny Testaverde will have to put the ball up 30-plus times and that's asking for trouble against a secondary that features Eric Allen, Charles Woodson and Tory James.

I think the Raiders will fix the special teams problems that hurt them last week and the return of kicker Sebastian Janikowski may be enough to give them the edge. Tampa Bay has more impressive the past month but they take a 4-4 road record to the Vet. In this defensive battle, I think McNabb's escapability will be the difference late in the game. I like both home teams to advance to the next round.

Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNNSI.com.

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