Been there, done that

Past playoff experience gives Eagles, Raiders edge

To me, this is the best weekend of pro football -- four games involving the league's best teams, all playing for their postseason lives. Saturday should see two close ones inside stadiums that might be hosting their final games.

The early game brings the playoff-experienced Eagles to the inexperienced Bears. Donovan McNabb seems to get the green light to run from Andy Reid more in the postseason, and I expect him to be a big factor. Chicago must have someone spy on him -- probably Brian Urlacher -- or McNabb will be the leading rusher in the game. Aside from McNabb, however, running the ball against the NFL's second-best rush defense is a bad idea. If Philadelphia's quarterback starts to move around in the pocket as defenders come up for him, he's savvy enough to find tight end Chad Lewis, who caught four balls last week against Tampa Bay.

When the Bears get the ball, they will run Anthony Thomas at the heart of the defense, focusing on tackle Paul Grasmanis, who is subbing for the injured Hollis Thomas. The Eagles hope to stuff the run and force Jim Miller to throw 35-40 times like Brad Johnson did last week. Hugh Douglas will lead the all-out assault on Miller, who is about as mobile as Johnson (four interceptions).

The Raiders advanced to Saturday's other game thanks to a bunch of 30-something veterans. Did old-timers Jerry Rice or Rich Gannon look like they've lost anything after a full season's wear and tear? I expect New England will zone off Rice and Tim Brown and limit them to underneath routes. If that happens, Jerry Porter could become a factor down the field.

Charlie Garner is always a threat to go the distance, and if the Patriots don't key free safety Tebucky Jones on Garner, their linebackers won't have a chance. Tyrone Wheatley will try and keep New England honest inside but the emergence of rookie DT Richard Seymour has made life difficult this season for inside power runners.

The Patriots need a big game from Antowain Smith so Tom Brady can establish the play-action pass. Oakland's cornerbacks have too much of an edge in obvious pass situations.

Ultimately, the Raiders' experience will be too much for New England. If a young team finished as poorly as the Raiders did, I'd have been concerned. But they looked rejuvenated last week and should end the Patriots' impressive run, though it may come down to a late field goal by Sebastian Janikowski. I think the Eagles also win with a late field goal. The Bears have allowed only 31 points in their last four games, but Philadelphia scored 31 last week against a very good Tampa Bay defense. And Chicago was only 3-3 this season against playoff-bound competition.

Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNNSI.com.

 

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