Not a big edge ... but an edge

Patriots' special teams could make a difference

Anyone who watched the AFC Championship Game last weekend knows that the Patriots got to New Orleans on the shoulders of their special teams. Brad Seely's group generated 14 points on their own in the 24-17 victory over Pittsburgh. Most would agree that New England needs another extraordinary effort from this unit to win the Super Bowl.

Can they do it again? Let's take a closer look at this matchup.

There will be between 25 and 30 special-teams plays in this game and that should be enough opportunities for the winner of this battle to create a distinct advantage in the game.

The two kickers ranked 12th and 13th in the league. New England's Adam Vinatieri gets a slight nod over Jeff Wilkins of St. Louis for a few reasons. Vinatieri made the big field goal in the snow against Oakland, he has a better percentage from 40 yards out and he has a better chance of kicking off into the end zone. Wilkins had all seven of his kickoffs returned last week in the NFC Championship Game. Advantage: New England

The punting advantage clearly goes to the Rams. Jon Baker ranked 16th in the NFL with a 42-yard average, plus he had to punt only 43 times during the regular season. That's nearly half the average number of punts for the rest of the league. The Patriots used two punters this year and after 73 punts, their average was 39 yards. Advantage: St. Louis

Neither team can boast an exceptional kick return unit, but I like the way St. Louis returners Yo Murphy and Trung Canidate take the ball up the field. Murphy averaged 32 yards a return last week against Philadelphia and New England's returners won't do much better than 20 yards a try. Advantage: St. Louis

When it comes to punt returns, no one comes close to Troy Brown, the top man in the NFL. He has already returned three for scores and he averages more than 14 yards a try. Advantage: New England

I took a close look at these teams' top tacklers on special teams. New England has the best special-teams tackler in the game in Larry Izzo. They signed him as a priority free agent last year and his play has paid dividends. Tebucky Jones also has done an outstanding job. But the Rams have also been getting great efforts from Adam Archuleta and Candidate (in the NFC Championship Game they combined for six tackles). St. Louis appears to have more speed on the field. Advantage: St. Louis

Creating turnovers may be the most critical part of special teams. The Patriots have blocked four kicks this year, but none was more important than Brandon Mitchell's blocked field goal for a score against the Steelers last Sunday. The Rams haven't blocked any kicks this year. Advantage: New England

The Patriots get the nod from me as the club with the special teams advantage but they face the problem of getting enough opportunities to create plays. The last time these two teams met, St. Louis punted only twice and that makes it tough for Troy Brown to do his thing. And the Rams didn't even attempt a field goal back in November so blocking one would be difficult. For things to go right Bill Belichick's defense has got to stop drives, force punts and make St. Louis settle for field goals rather than score touchdowns. Belichick will find a way to get the most benefit from his special teams group.

Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel adminstrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNNSI.com.

 

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