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Potent mixture One man's narrowing formula for long-term successPosted: Monday May 20, 2002 2:51 PM
Trying to find information about your favorite NFL team this time of year is hard, but that’s not to say teams aren’t getting some very interesting things done behind the scenes. Teams are busy at work laying the ground work for the future. Questions like: Should we cut a player before June 1 and take the cap hit now, or should we put it off and make it next year’s problem? An eye on the future is critical for success in this league. But Americans love credit cards and future fiscal responsibility is usually substituted for present satisfaction or relief. Fighting the temptation to "mortgage" the future is a difficult one; some teams fall prey and some resist and still succeed.
Smart teams look to the future before they decide what to do and with that in mind I took a long look at which teams will head into 2003 with the highest probability to become contenders. Teams aiming for a push two years from today are doing business right now restructuring contracts and passing on high-priced, instant fix-type players. I studied all the teams in the league as of May 3 and what their 2003 structure looked like. I used a very high set of criteria to sort the league out. Teams that are "built right," so to speak, with:
Only 15 of the 32 teams had contracts for at least 50 players two years from today. Half the league already eliminated! Of those 15, only nine clubs had $4 million or more in projected cap space (14 teams are already projected over the cap). Of those nine, only seven had a below average prorated signing bonus charge for 2003. Teams with more than 14.8 million in signing bonus have little wiggle room to get out from under deteriorating player contracts. Of the seven remaining, six have stable front offices and a head coach under a long-term deal. These teams -- Philadelphia, Chicago, Buffalo, Seattle, Minnesota, New York Giants -- sit in the best position to make some headway in 2003. The League office forever preaches cap responsibility, stability in the organization and an eye on the future -- well here are the six teams poised to take advantage of their 2003 situation. Teams like Pittsburgh and Cincinnati were close to making the top six and could very well be there by next year but, for now, have not met all the criteria. There are rumors Mike Holmgren could be in trouble in Seattle, but I’m sure with Trent Dilfer taking over at quarterback, Holmgren will right the ship. The year Dick Vermeil took the Rams to the Super Bowl he was on his last leg, and just a year ago people were wondering how long Bill Belichick would last in New England. If Holmgren wins in 2002, it’s clear sailing after that (as it should be for the other teams under this formula). It’s no secret that in the past few years teams have come out of nowhere to get to the Super Bowl. The average franchise in 2003 has 47 players under contract, $2.9 million of cap space and $14.8 million of space already used up in prorated signing bonus. To get to the "big dance" a team has to be better than average -- and it starts with its foundation. Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNNSI.com.
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