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For better or worse, some predictions
It's that time again -- time to embarrass myself with preseason predictions. I've picked the Super Bowl outcome right once in my 16 years covering the NFL: Dallas over Buffalo eight years ago. Two years later, I atoned for my success -- I picked Cleveland to win it all and they won all of five games. This is risky business, but here goes: In my mind, the AFC has seven of the top 10 teams in football entering the season, so winnowing the list is tough. It'll come down to a warm January afternoon in Nashville, with Eddie George chewing up the Indianapolis defense. I like Tennessee to repeat as AFC champion. Three very good teams can't fit into two NFC Championship Game slots, so I'm leaving out NFC East champ Washington. Look for Tampa Bay to stuff the Rams offense in a repeat of last year's title game, and watch middle linebacker Jamie Duncan emerge as a Pro Bowl star as Hardy Nickerson's replacement. In the Super Bowl, in Tampa, I like Tampa. Eddie George will meet his match in a terrific run-stuffing Bucs defense, MVP Warren Sapp will sack Steve McNair twice, and Shaun King will do just enough. Bucs 20, Titans 16. Now for the individual awards: The offensive rookie of the year should be Washington left tackle Chris Samuels, who will do a great job shutting down the weak side. But linemen never win these awards. So the pick here is Peter Warrick, the Cincinnati receiver who will be Akili Smith's go-to guy from Day 1. He'll edge New England's J.R. Redmond, who should start by October 1 and be a 1,000-yard rookie rusher. On defense, I like San Francisco pass rusher Julian Peterson, who has studied Jevon Kearse over and over on film this preseason and will be put in a similar role. Peterson's 13 sacks will give him the nod over brilliant Chicago second-round safety Mike Brown. It's not hard to pick the comeback player of the year. Denver's Terrell Davis, with 1,500 yards rushing, wins over the Jets' Vinny Testaverde and his 3,000 passing yards. The MVP race will be close. Third in my voting: Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski, who will kick an NFL record 64-yarder in Week 2 at Indianapolis, lead the league in scoring and lift the Raiders to a 10-6 playoff season. No. 2: St. Louis QB Kurt Warner, who will spread the ball around more in 2000 than he did last year, particularly to Torry Holt. My winner: Tennessee's Steve McNair. I saw McNair in the preseason finale at Chicago, and he's a different quarterback than the tightly reined one we saw last year. He's sure of himself, bullet-armed. New offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will showcase McNair's mobility and strong arm, plus he'll have two 1,000-yard receivers, Carl Pickens and Kevin Dyson. McNair will throw for 4,000 and run for 500. That spells MVP on this ballot. Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and appears each Sunday on CNN's "NFL Preview." Click here to send a question to his mailbag.
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