But when you took the Jets' job, and your mentor went out on a limb to give it to you, part of your psyche should have been: 'I'm in for the long haul, no matter what happens.' I also hear Groh fired special teams coach Mike Sweatman on Friday, hours before meeting with Virginia AD Terry Holland. I mean, what is going through this man's mind?

My MMQB Top 10 1. Tennessee (13-3). Only 402 carries, Eddie George? C'mon! You're letting up! 2. Baltimore (13-4). There has never been a player more excited to play the sport of football than Ray Lewis. What a player he is. 3. Oakland (12-4). Notice a trend here? An AFC trend? 4. New Orleans (11-6). Jim Haslett, take my credit card. Take your staff and players out to Emeril's right now for a CNNSI.com-sponsored team dinner. No team deserves it more. 5. N.Y. Giants (12-4). I have moved the Giants from 8 to 5 in the MMQB Top 10 for reasons relating to karma. They get top seed. Snow, cold roll in. Rams lose, eliminating first-round match against St. Louis team that maimed Giants seven weeks ago. Eagles loom; Giants have won both matches this year, by 15 and 17 points. Prospective title game would bring dome team to Meadowlands; Saints had zero cold weather games all season; Vikings one chilly one, at Dallas on Thanksgiving. See my point? Everything's coming up Giants. The Giants have beaten the Eagles eight consecutive times. What more do they want? 6. Minnesota (11-5). During the bye week, Denny Green had bottle rockets surgically implanted in his corners' calf muscles. 7. Philadelphia (12-5). The Vet is more than a 12th man. It is a 13th, 14th and 15th. (tie) Miami (12-5). "We are what we are," head coach Dave Wannstedt told me after the overtime win against the Ponies. Boring, he means. But they're in the final eight, baby. 9. Tampa Bay (10-7). It's time, Tony Dungy. It's time to drag this offense kicking and screaming into 2001. The last two times the Bucs have really opened it up, they've scored 41 on Minnesota and 38 on the Rams. Once the Eagles bottled up Warrick Dunn on Sunday -- and what a great job that Philly defense did -- the game was over. John Madden said it perfectly on FOX early in the fourth quarter, with the Eagles up 21-3 and Shaun King continuing to throw dump-offs. "At some point, you've got to start throwing the ball down the field," Madden said. "You can't keep throwing short, throwing short, throwing short." 10. Denver (11-6). My educated guess is: Goodbye, defensive coordinator Greg Robinson. Goodbye, defensive staff. (tie) St. Louis (11-5). "How many times do I have to tell you,'' Bill Parcells said to me Saturday night, after the Saints' 31-28 victory against the Rams, "that you better play defense this time of year or you're going home?" I learned too late. I am stubborn. I loved this offense so much I couldn't evaluate all their faults fairly. But this was a careless team, so careless in the end that it infected even the great Kurt Warner.

My best guess right now is that when Bill Parcells and owner Woody Johnson meet Tuesday, Parcells tells him he doesn't want to coach, and that running backs coach Maurice Carthon, Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson and Giants defensive coordinator John Fox will get considered for the job.

Favorite scene of the weekend, from the Dolphins' press box luncheonette Saturday at halftime: New York Post Jets beat man Mark Cannizzaro, having just heard the Groh news, looked like his dog just died. This is what happens when a normal postseason life turns into the hell of a full-blown New York media coaching search "Shoot me now," he said. "Please."

Which brings us to ...

Which brings us to ...

The new wrinkle, according to my old friend Deep Redskin, is that Terry Robiskie has been told that if Parcells, Joe Gibbs, Steve Spurrier and Dick Vermeil turn down the Redskins, then Snyder will stay with Robiskie. The sidebar issue here being that Robiskie staying would mean Ray Rhodes would stay because he likes Robiskie so much. I've got a gut feeling that Vermeil will be a factor in this one before it's over, and I told that to Vermeil on Sunday morning. He, by the way, will listen to offers, but he told me he won't be a candidate in Kansas City.

Which brings us to ...

Which brings us to ...

Phillips will meet with owner Ralph Wilson early this week. Wilson will probably ask him to fire offensive coordinator Joe Pendry and special teams coach Ronnie Jones; he may ask him to dump offensive line Carl "Old Yeller" Mauck. Phillips, I feel sure, will stick by his vow to fire no one. Wilson, then, would fire Phillips. That's the most likely scenario.

Candidates: Defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell, Marty Schottenheimer and, depending whether Tom Donohoe is hired as general manager this week, Pitt coach -- and Donahoe pal -- Walt Harris and Dom Capers.

Which brings us, and I'm not sure why, to ...

Which brings us to ...

The Jets hire Groh without outside interviews. Same with the Bengals and Dick LeBeau, the Cardinals with Dave McGinnis, the Dolphins with Dave Wannstedt, the Lions with Gary Moeller. Same, really, with New England and Bill Belichick, who was the only real candidate the Patriots considered a year ago.

What this means is when the coaching carousel spins, many of the openings are actually closings. And I could tell it burns Lewis, though he was diplomatic because he wants a job. "Look at all the guys elevated to full-time head-coaching jobs after they've been on those staff for a year or longer," Lewis said. "Who's succeeded in recent years, other than Al Groh, Bill Parcells, Marty Schottenheimer and George Seifert? I figure it out recently it's like 35 guys have failed and five succeeded. Amazing thing. But all I can do is hope I get a shot. I've put it in God's hands."

I've been screaming about the plight of the black coaches for the past year. I will keep screaming. One permanent hire in the past five years? Disgraceful.

Wild-Card Awards

OFFENSIVE PLAYERS OF THE WEEK: It's a tie: Miami running back Lamar Smith, whose 40-carry, 209-yard rushing day set a Miami record and was the second-highest rushing day in the NFL playoff history. This was easy. Also, Baltimore fullback Sam Gash, for The Block. As weird as the 58-yard ping-pongish touchdown pass to Shannon Sharpe in the second quarter was -- it ricocheted three time before landing in Sharpe's arms -- what made it happen was one of the great blocks of our time. With Bill Romanowski measuring him for a tackle after, say, a nice 8-yard gain, Gash flew out of nowhere and blindsided Romo, blasting him out of bounds. High school coaches, get this video. It shows what a valuable, and uncoached, skill open-field blocking is.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia defensive end Hugh Douglas. What a great player. The Eagles were stumbling around, getting nothing early in their playoff game with the Bucs, until Douglas burst around the failed block of running back Warrick Dunn with five minutes left in the second quarter and the Eagles trailing 3-0. He nailed quarterback Shaun King for a sack and a fumble. The Eagles recovered the fumble and rallied for their first touchdown. In the second half, with the Bucs desperately rallying, Douglas ended another drive with a third-down sack of King. Douglas, a legitimate All-Pro player this year, came up huge in the biggest game of his career. Two sacks, five tackles, three QB pressures.

SPECIAL TEAMS PLAYER OF THE WEEK: New Orleans fullback Brian Milne. Special teams is about working and fighting through blocks and racing downfield -- when you know you might be racing downfield for no good reason. And when Milne did that late in the fourth quarter Saturday, it paid off in a win. With the Rams trailing 31-28 and a punt floating toward Az Hakim, Milne steamed downfield, evading blockers when he could. And when Hakim fumbled, Milne burrowed in to steal the ball from Hakim. Ballgame.

COACH OF THE WEEK: Miami offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. I chuckle at those who say Gailey's prehistoric offense can't win. First of all, this prehistoric offense has the same principles of the Bill Parcells ball-control scheme. Secondly, players win. Players who block well, players who run well, players who throw well. And the Miami players, including a relentless Lamar Smith and an underrated front, have been choreographed superbly by Gailey this year, culminating in the overtime playoff win against the Colts.

Factoid of the Week That May Interest Only Me

Actually, it's a quote. Comes from my press-box-mate in Ravensville, Sports Illustrated's Mike Silver, when the announcer pointed out a tackle by Denver defensive end Maa Tanuvasa.

"Know what his brother's name is?" Silver said.

"What?" I said.

"Paa."

The 10 Things I Think I Think

1. I think this is the threefold NFL upshot of the Culligan Holiday Bowl

a. Texas left tackle Leonard Davis looks like one heck of a player, as big as a mountain and nearly as quick as Chris Samuels.

b. Longhorn quarterback Chris Simms did nothing to hurt his NFL stock, though he threw four picks and no touchdowns while going 17 of 33 for 245 yards. I liked his composure, his mobility in the pocket (for such a big kid) and knowing when to take off and when to stay home. He had touchdown passes dropped in the end zone by freshmen Roy Williams and B.J. Johnson. I liked his reaction after those drops, which was basically no reaction. He's a cool kid. I still remember him as a 5- or 6-year-old from visiting his father, Phil, while covering the Giants for Newsday in the mid-80s. During one interview by the Simms pool, Phil must have said "Christopher, stop throwing dirt in the pool!" four or five times.

c. Speaking of those drops, they didn't hurt the 2001 chances of a transfer from Duke. Kid by the name of Kyle Shanahan, Mike Shanahan's son. Kyle left Duke because he wanted a more serious football experience out of college and so he walked on at Texas this fall, playing the scout team. Next year he'll be eligible to play, and he'll probably be the third, fourth or fifth wideout for the 2001 Longhorns. It won't hurt his chances that he's become fast friends with Simms.

2. I think it is laughable that you would read the following item, considering I picked four visitors this weekend and four home teams won. But my early line on the divisional playoff round has the Giants, Saints, Raiders and Ravens winning. What, by the way, would CBS think of a Baltimore-New Orleans Super Bowl?

3. I think I am still glad I voted for Marshall Faulk for MVP, but it leaves me slightly tortured that I didn't vote for Eddie George. You recall my switch from George to Faulk last week, a tough decision based on the fact that Tennessee leans so heavily on George; eight times this year he carried the ball 25 times or more, and the Titans were 8-0 in those games.

That torture was exacerbated Saturday afternoon by sitting next to a George voter and a writer I respect hugely, Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News. His reason for the George vote: "Best player on the best team. Wore the biggest bullseye of any player in the NFL all season. For the Titans to do what they wanted to do on offense and defense all season, they had to give it to George 25 times a game. By running the ball so much he gave them a 33:48 time of possession. So a good, rested defense was playing 26 minutes a game, and they were the number one defense in the league. As for Faulk, their best win all year might have been the road win against the Giants, the number one seed in the NFC, and they won by 14, without Faulk." Duly, and respectfully, noted.

b. Speaking of George, this from Ira Miller of the San Francisco Chronicle, seated to the left of Gosselin, on a prospective matchup for the AFC title between Tennessee and Oakland: "Eddie George has 415 yards in his two games against the Raiders -- 216 and 199 yards. At that rate, they should hold him to 182 in the championship game."

4a. I think I would like to ask Michael Vick this question: When you begin telling the truth, would you please let us know? First, in October, you say you're staying at Virginia Tech for the 2001 season. Now, I understand why you said that. You wanted to get the pressure of the constant questions about your future off your back. Then, earlier this month, you repeat that you'll stay in school next year. And now, preparing for Monday's Gator Bowl game against Clemson, you say that the prospect of being the No. 1 overall pick "makes my decision tougher" about whether to stay in or come out. "It's great to know I have this option," you said. What option? You've said twice you're staying in school. My advice to you is that when you call your next news conference to discuss your future you preface your remarks with: "There is no reason you should believe what I'm about to say."

b. I think Vick's coming out.

c. I think, as I wrote in SI a couple of weeks ago, the draft order will be Davis and Vick, in that order. And San Diego will move mountains trying to deal that top pick for a passel of picks.

5. I think this is the way the NFL tries to level the playing field every year: Compare the 2001 schedules of the Colts, second-place finishers in the AFC East, with the Bills, fourth-place finishers. Five of the Colts' eight non-division games are against 2000 playoff teams; the Colts also have quasi-contenders San Francisco and Kansas City. Buffalo has one playoff team, New Orleans, and this magnificent seven for its non-division schedule: Seattle, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Jacksonville, San Diego, San Francisco and Atlanta. And you want to see the Giants fall to earth next year? Check out their non-division schedule: Five playoff foes, 9-7 Green Bay, Seattle with $19 million to spend in the draft and free-agency, and the Chiefs.

6. I think the Dolphins would have lost by 21 without Lamar Smith.

7. I think Az Hakim may very well have saved the Saints from a bigger playoff choke than the '92 Oilers in the 38-35 wild-card loss to Buffalo. Imagine being up by 31-7 with 10 minutes left in the game and losing 35-31. Well, if Hakim hangs onto that punt, it's at least 40-60 that Kurt Warner can take the Rams 89 yards in a minute to win, the way they'd been playing offensively.

8. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

a. I'd like to give a shout-out (is that the correct terminology from the square father of two teenage girls?) to a few e-mailers. Dwayne White, of Clinton, Md., has named his fantasy basketball team "The Montclair High School Field Hockey Team." Wow. For those latecomers to this column, the MHS field hockey team provided many column inches of fun this fall in MMQB. Memo to teacher Patrick Mulhern from Red Bank: I'd be happy to comply with your request, but your e-mail address doesn't work; send along a better way to contact you. Memo to Ellis Tate of Plano, Texas: Laura King does not play basketball. She does, however, make winter sports of filling out college applications and working at The Gap. Memo to Adam Menter of Nashville: You would have loved being in PSINet Stadium on Sunday, when, during a second-quarter TV timeout, It's A Beautiful Day, by U2 blared over the PA. And you would have freaked when Elevation came on at the two-minute warning. And a memo to Rutgers soccer coaches Glenn Crooks and Michael O'Neill: Go Scarlet Knights.

b. Daughter Mary Beth, a Montclair High frosh, has made the high school bowling team. Out of the blue, really. We went bowling the other day at the Garden Palace Lanes in Clifton, N.J. (where I learned imported grande hazelnut lattes, or any outside drinks, are not welcome), and she beat me one out of three. She suggested, with the end of the field hockey season, maybe I could start writing about the bowling team in MMQB. Hmmm. Good idea. A new team to cover! Kegling! Great family fun! Live, from Bowler City in Hackensack! That's where our league matches (meets? bowl-offs? games?) happen.

c. Saw two movies during the holidays. Was entertained by Jim Carrey, who is continually brilliant, but turned off by the strange darkness of The Grinch. And I got blown away by the brilliance of Tea Leoni in The Family Man. I know the movie's been ripped, and I know I'm an old cornball, but I really liked the movie. Leoni sort of fell off our radar screens for a while, but her performance as a sensuous and hopeful suburban saver-of-the-world is worth the price of admission ... even at $9 a pop.

d. Coffeenerdness: Because I have ripped the inconsistency of the Starbucks lattes throughout the fall, I must share this e-mail from Scott, in Denver: "Learn to appreciate the inconsistency of your favorite coffee drinks. Every latte is hand-made, from scratch. Each one has a distinct personality. Like a quarterback, it takes time for a barista to learn his/her position. Be at peace with your coffeenerdness. Live in harmony with the ebs and flows of the latte." Pardon me while I do TM ... OK, now I'm done. One comment: I have no problem with slightly different-tasting lattes. But the pods must be cleaned between each shot of espresso. Common courtesy, Scott. I want a fresh latte, not one soiled by residue from the last few drinks. And for $3.45 a cup, I think I deserve that. (Can you believe what a coffee nerd I am?)

e. The Fort Lauderdale Airport is an absolute disgrace. Terrible restaurants. Horrendously inconvenient. Got there about 8:30 Saturday night and this was my meal choice: Raisin bran or two-day-old sandwich. Chose the raisin bran. How sad. Ira Miller chose Ritz crackers.

f. Huge Fin fans spotted at Pro Player: Jim Leyritz, Mary Jo Fernandez. Leyritz told me stories about a beanball war he had with Greg Maddux between 1998 and '99, and about how he slept through the first three innings of the World Series game with Atlanta in '96 before belting the game-tying three-run home off Mark Wohlers. Told Leyritz he has a good book in him.

9. I think you can never overestimate home-field advantage in the playoffs.

10. I think if this is the first thing you've read in 2001, God bless you.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL and appears regularly on CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNN's NFL Preview. Click here to send a question to his NFL Mailbag.

 

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