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Five things I think I think Of course, with the draft hours away, they could change
Sports Illustrated's Peter King will file two more editions of Five Things I Think I Think on Saturday, one about midway through the first round and one after the first round. SEATTLE -- As someone who has studied Michael Vick quite a bit over the past month and come to the conclusion that he might be the biggest boom-or-bust prospect in NFL draft history (I mean that), I have a problem with the team that traded the chance to pick him ... and the one that acquired that chance Friday. The San Diego Chargers, the traders, now move into the fifth spot in the first round. That puts them in jeopardy of missing out on the best quarterback of this draft and maybe the best playmaking-quarterback prospect ever. But it also probably puts them out of range of drafting the top player on their board, TCU running back LaDainian Tomlinson. They also got poor value, the fifth and 67th picks, for the first overall pick -- in addition to a second-round pick in 2002. Maybe GM John Butler knows something the rest of the NFL doesn't know right now -- namely, that the next four teams in the draft will not pick Tomlinson or trade the rights to Tomlinson. If he's right, and Tomlinson is there at number five, then I'll reconsider my stance here. But if I were the Chargers, I'd be trying to trade back up with Arizona at number two right now. The Atlanta Falcons, the tradees, just might have given away second- and third-round picks plus Tim Dwight (I know, whoopee) for nothing. Wednesday through Friday morning, I called around the league asking if any team was going to try to move up to take Vick if San Diego passed on him. I not only got no bites. I got no exposed teeth. Nothing. I firmly believe the Falcons could have sat right where they were, at No. 5, and picked Vick -- and signed him for millions less. Thus my confusion. I don't know. I think sometimes these teams try to out-think themselves. That second-round pick and the third- should be starting players for the Falcons in 2003. And they gave them to San Diego. I doubt sincerely the Falcons had solid intelligence that some team had a good shot to deal with Cleveland or Arizona or Cincinnati for Vick. I didn't hear a syllable of it in three days on the phone. Well, the stage is set for a fun draft, anyway. As I said on CNN and CNN/Sports Illustrated on Thursday night, I've never seen a draft like this one in the 21 years I've covered the league. No one knows what the second pick holds, never mind the seventh or 12th or 15th. It's going to be an exciting day. Now for my pre-draft Five Things I Think I Think: 1. I think I give the Jeanne Dixon Seer Award of this draft to Phil Simms. When I sat with him two weeks ago to watch three game tapes of Vick, I asked him what he thought San Diego would do with the first pick. "Trade it," he said. "They're going to see he's too risky, and they'll find someone a day or two before the draft who's really interested in him." Nice job, Blondie. 2. I think it is unlike the Giants to be trying move up in the draft, but that's what I hear they're doing -- for either Syracuse cornerback Will Allen or Arizona State tight end Todd Heap. 3. I think Seattle might deal up to Arizona for Gerard Warren. 4. I think the Green Bay Packers might surprise a lot of us Saturday if they pick -- as I hear they might -- the No. 1 man on their draft board, risky North Carolina State wideout Koren Robinson. 5. I think the Patriots hold the power high in the first round, because they could be sitting there at six with either David Terrell (I still can't believe the Browns would take him at three) or Warren on the board, two guys who we all thought would be among the top three or four picks a couple of months ago. If that happens, the Patriots deal down for a second- or third-round pick, or take Warren. After being skeptical about Warren's weight and attitude, Bill Belichick dispatched defensive aide Romeo Crennel to Florida to meet with Warren Thursday, and Warren came back with a relatively clean bill of health and weighing only six or eight pounds over his playing weight. Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.
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