ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- We in the media sit around for two months before the real games start, talking to ourselves. We think we know things, real things. And then -- I can tell you with certainty that this happens every season -- it takes about two-and-a-half quarters for the season to blow up in our faces.

Sunday, from the front row of the press box at Ralph Wilson Stadium, I watched the Saints get cuffed around by a no-name Bills team that held New Orleans scoreless for a half, with no first downs for 29 minutes. The Saints finally came around and won, but weirdness was everywhere. Minnesota went 35 minutes without scoring -- at home -- and lost to one of the one of the worst teams in the league. That's what I thought Carolina was. The Pats, touted by yours truly as the NFL's surprise team before their summer of discontent, were awful and fell in Cincinnati. At one point, I looked at the scores popping up in the upper right of the Saints-Bills FOX 'cast (good thinking, by the way; this way we don't have to wait 10 minutes for the ticker at the bottom of the screen) and saw the following: Dallas 6, Tampa Bay 3 ... Chicago 6, Baltimore 3 ... Cleveland 3, Seattle 3 ... Kansas City 17, Oakland 6.

The season-opening ratings of the new-and-improved Top 12 (if everything else in America gets bigger and better, why not the Top 10?)  1. St. Louis (1-0). Rams just played their toughest road game of the year, and they're 1-0.   2. Denver (0-0). Run Mike Anderson early and often. That's my refrain, not that Mike Shanahan is listening.   3. Baltimore (1-0). Elvis, that's a heck of a debut. Anybody out there think Trent Dilfer could have gone 24-for-30?   4. Indianapolis (1-0). I was just thinking how much those missed offseason workouts in Indianapolis hurt Edgerrin James, who ran for 135 yards and scored two touchdowns on Sunday.   5. Oakland (1-0). What would Al Davis be saying today about the replacement refs if he had lost by a field goal instead of winning by one?   6. Miami (1-0). Lamar Smith is one heck of a football player.   7. Tennessee (0-1). Mulligan. They hope.   8. Tampa Bay (1-0). There haven't been many uglier wins in Bucs history than that bizarre thing at Dallas yesterday. Warrick Dunn is on pace for a 352-carry season, by the way, after a 22-rush day.   9. New Orleans (1-0). My problem with Aaron Brooks, who I like and think will be a good NFL player, is that the media and Madison Avenue have made him famous before he is very good.   10. New York Giants (0-0). I think their most valuable player Monday night could be Cornelius Griffin, who has an ouchy ankle. How weird is that? But he stops the run, and Denver's the best rush team in football. Just a thought.   11. Philadelphia (0-1). Can't afford all those mistakes, Iggles.   12. (tie) San Diego (1-0). Either the Chargers are pretty good or the Redskins belong in NFL Europe. Or NFL El Salvador. Green Bay (1-0). Is that Ahman Green or Amen, Green?

And this is what I immediately thought: Poor St. Louis. I picked the Rams to win the Super Bowl. So obviously they are doomed. I am 1-for-17 (Dallas, 1992) in picking Super Bowl winners before the season.

So why does it get harder every year to pick the wheat and the chaff in this league? Why, even though I went to see 17 teams this summer, and talked to their coaches and players, and watched their practices, and listened to the beat guys rip and praise and predict, am I sitting here at 2:50 in the afternoon on opening day with a stunned look and drool running down my chin? Couple of reasons. Teams change more than they ever have, some of them drastically. Saturday morning, I sat with Gregg Williams, Buffalo's new head coach, and listened to him talk about his Bills. "After we cut our roster," he told me, "I asked all the first- and second-year guys to stay behind because I wanted to talk with them about a few things. They all come in, sit down. And I start counting. There's 32 of them. I was shocked. That's our team." And so, obviously, there's no way in the world you know how strong safety Raion Hill is going to plug center field when the bullets start flying. How do know if first-year starters Bill Conaty, Corey Hulsey and Jonas Jennings -- the center, right guard and right tackle, respectively -- will form a solid wall for the rookie ballcarrier, Travis Henry? Those are vexing enough questions. Then you get into the game and see John Fina, supposedly the anchor of this group, playing like an Arena League cuttee and letting the Saints turnstile him on the way to Rob Johnson. Then there's the matter of adjusting to the West Coast offense, a Buffalo first, and switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3. I mean, who in their right mind could have predicted how the Bills would play in the opener, not to mention this season?

Then there's this eternal verity that Bill Parcells used to mouth every couple of minutes when I covered the Giants in the '80s. "You're never the same from one year to the next," he'd say. "What you did last December never matters this Septmember." That's the biggest problem in trying to figure this game. We go off last year's standings and project them to this year. Big mistake. Desire changes. Teams change. Schedules change; the Giants' schedule has gone from Division II in 2000 to a-playoff-foe-a-week in 2001, for instance.

Last week I did the talk-show circuit. Before the season, I'm brought on stations from San Diego to Bangor (well, I didn't do Bangor, but they didn't ask) to preview the season. And my surprise team, I told the nation in these small doses, was San Diego. A couple of times, probably after seven or eight beers, I even said the Chargers would be on the playoff bubble come December. Well, I might as well have said the Devil Rays would be in the race the last week of September. I was roundly shouted down.

San Diego 30, Washington 3. Dallas, Cincinnati, Cleveland and New England are next for the Chargers. How can they not be playoff-bound?

See? I never learn.

"Yeah," I said. "They'll buy a team, you'll play for it."

Rice chortled. "I don't think so," he said. "Well, probably not."

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK: New Orleans DE Joe Johnson and New Orleans SS Sammy Knight (tie). Three sacks for Johnson, three interceptions for Knight. Johnson absolutely abused Buffalo's Fina, who is supposed to be the rock on a kiddie offensive line. Johnson sacked Rob Johnson twice in the first half and leveled him violently and cleanly on a third rush, then finished the third quarter with a sack of the beleaguered Bills QB. Knight made leaping, in-stride and diving picks -- and added three passes defensed. It's hard for a safety to be better than he was.

SPECIAL TEAMS PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Carolina kick returner Steve Smith, who started a stunning road win against Minnesota with an athletic 93-yard touchdown return. Did you know Carolina trailed for only 192 seconds in this game?

COACH OF THE WEEK: St. Louis defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. The Rams, with nine new starters, held Philly to 33 percent third-down conversions and just 57 rushing yards, plus they forced three turnovers. What do defensive players want to do? Attack, not read and react. And attacking is what Lovie Smith teaches.

GOAT OF THE WEEK: Buffalo QB Rob Johnson. No TDs. Three picks. In all the league, I can't think of one high-expectation player who was worse on Opening Day.

I am amazed, even by Buffalo standards, by the sight of three Winnebagos with tables outside in full breakfast mode. Twenty-eight hours before kickoff, Bills fans in a rebuilding year are the same Bills fans they've always been, which is to say ridiculously loyal. My favorite sight: One of the tables had as its centerpiece a fifth of Jack Daniel's, and make no mistake about it -- it was being used.

1. I think the more I hear the regular officials talk, the more they remind me of the air-traffic controllers during the Reagan Administration. In other words, they might be right, but it doesn't matter. What matters is they're getting squashed like squirrels in the road.

2. I think Steve McNair could be a little more durable.

3. I think the Dolphins aren't missing Trace Armstrong much this morning. That was a heck of a show Miami's front seven put on Sunday night, harassing the stuffing out of McNair and forcing the Titans into three picks.

4. I think these are my media thoughts of the week:

a. There is no more stupid series of ads on television today than the Buddy Lee jeans spots.

b. John Riggins was talking about football being a contact sport on ESPN Radio on Sunday night when he said he didn't like contact "unless it's got breasts" (he also included another part of the female anatomy I won't stoop to mention). This is mindful of his "Loosen up, Sandy baby" line to Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor years back. I hope ESPN likes that kind of insightful analysis.

c. The Westwood One radio crew doing the Rams-Eagles game called St. Louis tight end Ernie Conwell "Cornwell" and "Cardwell" before settling on his correct name late in the first half.

d. FOX's Deacon Jones said Jevon Kearse would get four or more sacks Sunday night. Kearse's line: two tackles, one assist, zero sacks.

e. ESPN's Mike Patrick, while the Titans were driving with their backup quarterback on the field, said: "People have to remember all the great years Neil O'Donnell had in Pittsburgh." O'Donnell played five years with the Steelers. He never threw for 3,300 yards in any of those seasons, never completed 60 percent of his passes, never had a quarterback rating over 88, never threw more than 17 touchdown passes. Come on, Mike. Superlative-down, fella.

5. I think, if I haven't already made myself clear on this subject, that this is my final critique of the silly new NFL schedule starting in 2002 that thumbs its nose at regional rivals (Raiders-Niners, Rams-Chiefs), who'll play but once every four years: Houston, hoping to build rivalries with New Orleans and Dallas, hosts the Cowboys in 2002 and the Saints in 2007 ... the only appearances by either club in Houston until 2010. Idiotic.

6a. I think this is the first installment of the Montclair Field Hockey Note of the Week: Faithful readers of this column will remember the interminable missives last fall about my hometown Montclair (N.J.) High School field hockey team. If the heroes of Montclair (17-3-1, losers in the state sectional finals) bored you last year, please jump immediately to No. 7. If not, this is your primer for an exciting new season. The Mounties lost eight of their top 10 scorers from last year's North Jersey Field Hockey League championship ballclub, and 10 key players graduated. It will take a while for the new crew to mesh, as Friday's season-opening 0-0 overtime tie against league rival Demarest showed. Now for the real King family drama. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. Last year's right wing, Laura King, has moved on. This year's right wing, at least in the opener, was sophomore Mary Beth King, who played 62 of 70 minutes. And she almost had fame, glory and a celebratory Brownie Frappucino after this one. Late in the first half, she took a long pass near midfield and maneuvered past the last defender, breaking in one-on-one on Demarest's fine goalie, Nicole Burr. King dribbles closer. Burr comes out to cut off the angle. King shoots ... pad save! Just off the outside of the left pad! Gallant effort by the kids. We'll get better. (They'll get better, I should say. I'll watch.) We're at Hackensack on Monday, 4 o'clock, if you want to stop by. The field's just off I-80, maybe nine miles west of the George Washington Bridge. And we can always use some quality fans.

6b. I think, if you wonder what happened to right wing and No. 1 daughter Laura King, she is entering her second week of freshman-year classes at Tufts University, a few long Bledsoe spirals from Kenmore Square. She is not playing field hockey. She is, however, taking Astronomy and Italian I. That ought to keep her from taking the T to the Boston hot spots too often. (What a naive father I am.)

7. I think it's an insane league that, in the span of 28 months, renders a first-round quarterback worthless. Take the Redskins, who need a quarterback of the future. They could have had 1999 first-rounder Cade McNown for a fifth-round draft choice in mid-August. None of their last 10 fifth-round picks (Quincy Sanders, Derek Smith, Mark Fischer, Jamel Williams, Keith Thibodeaux, Twan Russell, Brad Badger, Leomont Evans, Jamie Asher, Rich Owens) were in Washington's starting lineup Sunday. And the 'Skins wouldn't risk a fifth on McNown? Nuts.

8. I think the Patriots were the only team in football with a must game in Week 1 -- let's face it, you cannot start a season with any optimism after losing the opener to Cincinnati -- and they played horribly. The Bengals are doing their darndest to prove me wrong. "Regardless of what people say or think," Takeo Spikes told me in training camp, "pro football is up to the players on Sunday now. And we have three things going for us. We've got veteran players who know what it takes to win. We have Dick LeBeau, who we know believes in us. And we are so fed up with losing. We can't take it anymore."

9. I think LaDainian Tomlinson is sore this morning. No player got the rock more than Tomlinson's 36 carries and one catch Sunday. Norv Turner told me Saturday he would carry it 23 to 25 times, and I dutifully reported this to my CNN audience on NFL Preview. Little did I know I'd be a dozen carries low.

10. I think it doesn't get much easier for Philly. Heartbreaker to the Rams, first of all. Then, in eight days beginning Saturday, the Eagles migrate two hours south to play in Tampa, fly home, then fly five hours west to Seattle, play the 'Hawks, and fly home. That's a rough three weeks.

Denver, 23-13. Shanahan has done something very odd in the salary-cap era. He has built a deep team. The only way the Giants can derail Denver, particularly on the night the new stadium opens next to the old Mile High, is with their excellent front four. It'll be interesting to see how third-round draft pick, corner Will Peterson, who was playing in the cornfields at Western Illinois 10 months ago, handles his debut at corner for the Giants under the pressure of the Monday night game. Jim Fassel loves him and Peterson might need a hug tonight when Rod Smith gets through with him.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL and appears regularly on CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNN's NFL Preview. Click here to send a question to his NFL Mailbag.

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