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Quarterback Mistake Quotient The numbers don't liePosted: Monday November 26, 2001 12:04 PM
PHILADELPHIA -- Watching the Monday night game a week ago, I kept wondering: What's wrong with Kerry Collins? Where's the Kerry Collins who looked so sharp during the last half of 2000, who lit up the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game for five touchdowns and 381 yards, who stared down the demons-in-a-bottle that almost wrecked his career, who made my criticism of the Giants' rich signing of him look so foolish last fall? Throwing off the back foot. Taking sacks close to the red zone, which took the Giants out of field-goal range for the ancient Morten Andersen. And those maddening fumbles; two a game, every game, it seemed. Yes, he's still moving the team and making good throws in big spots. He's still the best quarterback the Giants have had since Phil Simms. (Though that's faint praise, like saying Joe Oliver was the best catcher the Reds had since Johnny Bench. Whoopie!) I wondered if it was Collins playing so recklessly and dragging the Giants down with him, or if I was judging him too harshly because I've seen him have a few mistake-filled games.
So I set out, with the help of the good folks at Elias Sports Bureau, to place a value on quarterback mistakes. A quarterback can do three things wrong, statistically speaking, other than complete a low percentage of his passes. And if the percentage is too low, he's going to get yanked anyway, so I didn't worry about factoring that in. The three wrongs: interceptions, fumbles and taking sacks inside the opponents' 30-yard line (sacks that help push the offense out of field-goal range). I figured I couldn't assign the same value to each, because they are weighted differently in how they hurt a team. The interception is the worst, because you lose possession. The fumble is the next-worst, because there's about a 50 percent chance you lose possession. The near-red-zone sack is next; it's a coach's nightmare (ask Jim Fassel ), but it doesn't automatically mean a kicker won't make the field goal. It just makes the field goal harder. Arbitrarily, I assigned three points for an interception, two for a fumble and one for a sack that comes when the ball is snapped inside the opponents' 30-yard line. That gave me a number on each quarterback. Then, I divided that number by the number of starts each quarterback has had. Many teams have played a different number of games so far, between nine and 11. This would allow us to see, per game, the comparative number of mistakes each passer is making. I call it the Quarterback Mistake Quotient. Here's how the quarterbacks rank, starting with the worst: 1. Daunte Culpepper, Vikings. Starts: 10 ... 12 interceptions, 16 fumbles, 5 bad sacks ... 73 points. QMQ: 7.30. (Let me take a minute to make sure you're following the Quarterback Mistake Quotient. Through Sunday night's loss to Chicago, Culpepper has thrown 12 interceptions, fumbled 16 times and been sacked five times inside the opponents' 30. Counting three points for an interception, two for a fumble and one for a "bad" sack, that's a total of 73 points. Divide that by his number of games, and you get his QMQ -- 7.30.) 2. Charlie Batch, Lions. Starts: 8 ... 12 interceptions, 6 fumbles, 9 bad sacks ... 57 points. QMQ: 7.13. 3. Trent Green, Chiefs. Starts: 10 ... 16 interceptions, 8 fumbles, 6 bad sacks ... 70 points. QMQ: 7.00. 4. Collins, Giants. Starts: 11 ... 13 interceptions, 15 fumbles, 7 bad sacks ... 76 points. QMQ: 6.91. (Interesting. The worst four on the QMQ scale all are having down years for significantly underachieving teams -- the 4-6 Vikes, the 0-10 Leos, the 5-6 Giants, the 3-7 Chiefs. And the next guy would be in this category if not for his 74-yard drive to save the Ravens on Sunday.) 5. Elvis Grbac, Ravens. Starts: 9 ... 14 interceptions, 7 fumbles, 3 bad sacks ... 59 points. QMQ: 6.56. 6. Peyton Manning, Colts. Starts: 10 ... 16 interceptions, 6 fumbles, 5 bad sacks ... 65 points. QMQ: 6.50. 7. Brett Favre, Packers. Starts: 10 ... 13 interceptions, 10 fumbles, 3 bad sacks ... 62 points. QMQ: 6.20 (If you're going to love him for taking the big chances and winning games he has no business winning, you have to grin and bear it when he throws away a chance to win one like the Atlanta game.) 8. Kurt Warner, Rams. Starts 9 ... 13 interceptions, 6 fumbles, 4 bad sacks ... 55 points. QMQ: 6.11. (I have no logical explanation for all the picks, other than to say teams like New Orleans are playing a more effective center field on him, and he has been hampered by the bad throwing thumb.) 9. Jon Kitna, Bengals. Starts: 10 ... 12 interceptions, 9 fumbles, 4 bad sacks ... 58 points. QMQ: 5.80. 10. Jay Fiedler, Dolphins. Starts: 10 ... 15 interceptions, 5 fumbles, 2 bad sacks ... 57 points. QMQ: 5.70 11. Chris Weinke, Panthers. Starts: 10 ... 14 interceptions, 7 fumbles, 0 bad sacks ... 56 points. QMQ: 5.60. 12. Jim Miller, Bears. Starts: 7 ... 7 interceptions, 6 fumbles, 3 bad sacks ... 36 points. QMQ: 5.14. 13. Tom Brady, Patriots. Starts: 9 ... 7 interceptions, 9 fumbles, 6 bad sacks ... 45 points. QMQ: 5.00 13. Aaron Brooks, Saints. Starts: 10 ... 8 interceptions, 9 fumbles, 8 bad sacks ... 50 points. QMQ: 5.00. 13. Jake Plummer, Cards. Starts: 10 ... 12 interceptions, 4 fumbles, 6 bad sacks ... 50 points. QMQ: 5.00. (I might be speaking too soon -- in fact, I know I am -- but Plummer just might be getting the hang of it.) 16. Rob Johnson, Bills. Starts: 8 ... 7 interceptions, 6 fumbles, 6 bad sacks ... 39 points. QMQ: 4.88. 17. Tim Couch, Browns. Starts: 10 ... 10 interceptions, 7 fumbles, 4 bad sacks ... 48 points. QMQ: 4.80. 18. Brian Griese, Broncos. Starts: 11 ... 13 interceptions, 4 fumbles, 3 bad sacks ... 50 points. QMQ: 4.55. (With his non- Rod Smith supporting cast, I'm surprised the numbers aren't worse.) 19. Jeff Garcia, 49ers. Starts: 10 ... 10 interceptions, 7 fumbles, 1 bad sack ... 45 points. QMQ: 4.50. 20. Chris Chandler, Falcons. Starts: 9 ... 9 interceptions, 3 fumbles, 4 bad sacks ... 37 points. QMQ: 4.11. 20. Steve McNair, Titans. Starts: 9 ... 10 interceptions, 2 fumbles, 3 bad sacks ... 37 points. QMQ: 4.11. 22. Tony Banks, Redskins. Starts: 8 ... 5 interceptions, 7 fumbles, 2 bad sacks ... 31 points. QMQ: 3.88. 23. Doug Flutie, Chargers. Starts: 11 ... 9 interceptions, 5 fumbles, 1 bad sack ... 38 points. QMQ: 3.45. 24. Kordell Stewart, Steelers. Starts: 10 ... 4 interceptions, 8 fumbles, 6 bad sacks ... 34 points. QMQ: 3.40. (A great measure of a resurgent player's worth to his team. Bill Cowher wants Stewart to be efficient while keeping his electric qualities about him. The man threw one interception in November, and the Steelers lost one game. He's turning into a good quarterback before our very eyes.) 25. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks. Starts: 8 ... 5 interceptions, 4 fumbles, 4 bad sacks ... 27 points. QMQ: 3.38. (Well, the QMQ doesn't measure how long each quarterback plays in each start, only the number of starts. This makes the thrice-pulled Hasselbeck's QMQ better than it should be.) 26. Brad Johnson, Bucs. Starts: 9 ... 6 interceptions, 3 fumbles, 6 bad sacks ... 30 points. QMQ: 3.33. 27. Vinny Testaverde, Jets. Starts: 10 ... 6 interceptions, 7 fumbles, 1 bad sack ... 33 points. QMQ: 3.30. (Living in Jetville, I hear people say Vinny's having a crummy year. Wrong. Vinny's having an efficient year, doing what the coaches are asking.) 28. Rich Gannon, Raiders. Starts: 10 ... 2 interceptions, 10 fumbles, 2 bad sacks ... 28 points. QMQ: 2.80 29. Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Starts: 10 ... 5 interceptions, 4 fumbles, 3 interceptions ... 26 points. QMQ: 2.60. 30. Mark Brunell, Jags. Starts: 9 ... 4 interceptions, 3 fumbles, 3 bad sacks ... 21 points. QMQ: 2.33. The worst four on this list play for sub-.500 disappointments. Four of the bottom seven play for division leaders this morning. I don't expect the NFL to adopt QMQ, but I do expect that it'll tell you much about your quarterback's performance.
The Veterans Stadium fans booed the first of two "Canines In Flight" frisbee dogs performing at halftime when the dog, a charcoal-gray whippet-looking thing, missed a 45-yard bomb from his horrendously inaccurate human thrower.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Washington QB Tony Banks. He had numbers Kurt Warner would find passable only for a quarter (12 of 18, 96 yards, no touchdowns or picks), but he managed a big win and didn't make mistakes. He's only a 51 percent passer, but no starting quarterback in the conference has thrown fewer than his five interceptions. And down the stretch, when he needed to bleed the clock and clinch the game, Banks lasered third-and-9 and second-and-9 conversion passes. "You guys have been ripping me for years," he told writers after the game, "but when you win five in a row, there's not much you can say." Touche. DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Jacksonville LB T.J. Slaughter, who led all NFL tacklers with 15 on Sunday and made some huge stops in a game the Jaguars let slip away in the final minute. Guys like this are why this team is not bereft of hope for the future. SPECIAL TEAMS PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Oakland S Brandon Jennings. The play meant little, but it was a play every special-teams coach should find and show his gunners today. Jennings sprinted downfield on a fourth-quarter punt coverage play, fought past the Giants' blocking, dove at the legs of Tiki Barber and stopped him for no gain. COACH OF THE WEEK: Washington coach Marty Schottenheimer. Met with him Saturday night at the Redskins' hotel, and you'd never know if he had won four in a row or lost five in a row (both of which he'd done this year already). I wondered how he kept from going wacko at 0-5. "As a leader of a group," he said, "you learn that people around you respond to adversity the way you respond to adversity. If you come apart at the seams, they'll come apart at the seams." I checked Schottenhemer's seams and they hadn't come apart. GOAT OF THE WEEK: Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning. Never thought I'd ever put this man in this category. But he looks like he's floating the ball; that's what he did to Zack Bronson, allowing him to return one of the four Manning picks for a touchdown. Four picks. That's double what Gannon has thrown in 11 games.
Kitna's quarterback rating in Cleveland on Sunday was 16.2. He was pulled in favor of Scott Mitchell, who put up a rating of 3.5.
1. I think the more I see Rich Gannon play, the more I think he would be my first overall pick in a Fantasy Football Draft. If I played, of course. He has an amazing knack for throwing an accurate ball -- but an accurate ball that only his own man can catch. And to think I questioned Jon Gruden for firing Jeff George and hiring Gannon in 1999. 2. I think the Redskins will win the NFC East. 3. I think Akili Smith has some gall, getting lippy with some Browns fans after the game for taunting him. You're the third-stringer for a 4-6 team, babe. Cool it. 4. I think these are my thoughts on the Redskins-Eagles: a. I will be charitable here and say, ahem, that Donovan McNabb has a ways to go before he gets my vote for Canton. What a blunderous day he had here. Two horribly high overthrows on first-half third downs. Third-down missed conversion passes that landed way short of the first down anyway. Throwing low and outside on the run, every time. But that's one of his problems. He rarely runs. He often seemed glued to the pocket and he ran only three times. Why in the world is Donovan McNabb glued to the pocket?! The situation called for -- no, screamed for -- McNabb to jumpstart the Eagles with his legs, and he stayed stapled in the pocket. Move him around, Andy Reid. Save your offense. b. I have now located the best name in the NFL. Central McClellion, a Washington defensive back. I like the fact that he went to Ohio State, because it means that Central McClellion went to college in Central Ohio. c. He Hate Me made his NFL debut. Rod Smart played special teams for the Eagles. No tackles, no assists. Lots of shove-downs. d. I wonder if network announcers would speak of Eagles fans, particularly the drunken ones in the upper deck, so admiringly if they heard the venom they spewed so reflexively. I mean, how can you bring your 8-year-old son or daughter to a game? e. I have been hard on Dan Wilkinson throughout his star-crossed NFL career, but if any defensive tackle is collapsing the pocket right now any better than he is, show him to me. 5. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week: a. In order to fit its U2 show into a tidy 90-minute block Friday night, VH-1 might have cut out too much, but it was still the best live-to-film concert I've ever seen. "With or Without You" has never been better. And "Walk On" and "Beautiful Day" were just as good. Great tour. Great show. Great band. b. Coffeenerdness: Is it just me, or are you disgusted by the over-saturation of Christmas ads and stores open on Thanksgiving? I heard my first Christmas music in Starbucks on Nov. 8. And I said to myself: I will not buy a single non-latte product in here until after Christmas. c. With a 100.7 temperature Wednesday night, and without solid food in me for 24 hours, I was afraid that my favorite holiday of the year, Thanksgiving, would go down in feverish flames. But I rebounded nicely, and we made it to brother Bob's house in South Windsor, Conn., for an appetizer of Heineken and a dinner of turkey, squash casserole, sweet potato casserole (sister-in-law Caroline's terrific concoctions), mashed potatoes, wife Ann's fresh fennel green beans, cranberry bread, homemade applesauce, and my mother's angel pie (meringue crust, lemon filling, whipped cream on top). Bob, Caroline, a great feast. The Kings were very pleased. However, I was not pleased, particularly after running long hills the two weeks before Thanksgiving, that I missed out on the Manchester Road Race. Bummer. Convenient, though, that I wasn't too sick to eat like a Palomino. d. Contract, Bud, contract. And find some way to put Javier Vazquez on the Red Sox. e. Montclair High athletic note of the week: Big week around the King house. Mary Beth King, the Montclair (N.J.) high sophomore, finds out Thursday if she has made the bowling team. I am of two minds on this, and they have nothing to do with he fact that her softball pitching coach does not want her to bowl because he thinks it aggravates old injuries to her elbow and shoulder. No, I'm thinking more of the fact that she's angling for a custom ball and team jacket. Is there no end to the costs you get hit with in kids' sports today? ... Also, note that the Montclair High Field Hockey awards banquet is Dec. 5 at the Valley Regency in Clifton, N.J. Let me know if you need tickets. They're $33 a pop. f. New Jersey Turnpike note of the week: What a zoo Sunday night. And smart move, by the way, all you restaurateurs at the Molly Pitcher Service Area, for closing most of your establishments at 10 with the place mobbed on a holiday weekend. 6. I think I wonder sometimes why Brian Billick can't just walk into a press room after a game and talk about the game without telling the media how little we know about football. 7. I think I don't get how the Chargers are 5-6. If I'm Mike Riley, suddenly, I wouldn't be putting the down payment on that place in Torrey Pines. 8. I think you would be surprised, unless you watched every week, that Kordell Stewart has the longest streak without an interception -- 155 throws -- in football today. 9. I think it's a good thing the Browns have the former head of the Secret Service from the Clinton White House on the payroll. Wouldn't want to see any of their players getting into trouble. 10. I think I should rename this Monday Afternoon Quarterback today. That stomach thing has had a hold of me so I did something last night I don't do much of on Sundays. Slept.
Brad Johnson steals the show, almost. Johnson to Keyshawn 11 times, and a spunky show by the overmatched Bucs. But Marshall Faulk wins the day. Rams, 30-27. Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL and appears
regularly on CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNN's NFL Preview. Click here to send a question to his
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