Prime time players

Talent is available, albeit at a hefty price

With the unprotected players list for the Feb. 18 expansion draft taking shape, CNNSI.com chatted with Sports Illustrated's Peter King about the Houston Texans' philosophy in building their team.

CNNSI.com: Considering that only three of the 37 players the Browns took in their expansion draft are still with the team, what sort of lesson can the Texans take into the Feb. 18 expansion draft?

King: The quality on the expansion list for Cleveland was far inferior to the quality of the players on Houston’s expansion list. There’s one very big difference, however. The players available to the Texans are better, and certainly closer to their prime, than were those available to Cleveland. For instance, Aaron Glenn, made available by the Jets, is still an above-average NFL corner. But I wouldn’t think there is any chance Houston would take him and absorb his $8.2 million cap hit for 2002. Those are the kind of decisions Charley Casserly will have to make before the expansion draft.

CNNSI.com: How is this expansion draft different from previous expansion drafts, and what is the prevailing wisdom for a team when picking from the unprotected list?

King: History tells us that no team has ever gotten rich long-term in an expansion draft. In fact when I talked to Casserly about his philosophy on the draft, he clearly didn’t expect to get very much help for the long haul from this draft. The Texans will go at this one of two ways. They make take four or five high-salary guys and then go out in college free agency after the draft and sign a bunch of marginal young prospects. Or they may go the traditional route: Take 20 or 25 players who won’t cost very much when and if Houston has to cut them and then build through the draft and future free agency seasons. The advantage to the former is that you wouldn’t be saddled with the players you knew wouldn’t be with you long term. But I’d expect Casserly to go with the latter in hopes of finding one or two keepers for the future among the many players he knows will not be Texans for more than a year or two. Remember, Kurt Warner was in the pool when Cleveland held its expansion draft.

CNNSI.com: And what is the conventional wisdom when the teams draw up their unprotected lists?

King: When teams put players on this list, they’re not necessarily putting their five worst players out there. They’re putting out players the team would love to be rid of in a cap sense. Let’s take the Aaron Glenn example. The Jets are more than $15 million over next year’s scheduled cap. If they lose Glenn, they lose all cap responsibility for him. So half of their salary cap dilemma will be taken off their hands simply by jettisoning Glenn.

CNNSI.com: When Dom Capers started in Carolina, he had a veteran-heavy team. It ended up flaming out, but what kind of team can Casserly build through this unprotected list?

King: I don’t think the Texans will find many long-term answers here or in free agency. The league was only in the third year of free agency when the Panthers took advantage of teams -- teams didn’t know that they had to lock up quality veterans before the free market opened in February. That’s how they were able to steal some quality veterans and become competitive early. Houston will be more like Cleveland, which got some above-average veterans by overpaying them in free agency and then filled in the roster through the draft. I expect that’s how Houston will go.

CNNSI.com: Some of the players we’ve seen on the unprotected list are $6-8 million guys and others -- Bruce Matthews, for instance -- might retire. Is the expansion process a flawed design that allows teams to stick it to Houston?

King: No question about it. Teams want Houston to solve cap problems for them. If Casserly is as smart as I think he is, he’s not going to do that except in the case of a player or two that might be a good example-setter for his young team. For instance, although he might only have a year left, Bill Romanowski could be a smart pick for Houston because he is such a blood-and-guts player. That’s the kind of guy you hope will come into the offseason program and show a bunch of kids and marginal veterans how to work out and how to practice. I also think that there are a couple of quality vets who have some football left. William Roaf, who is considering retirement, would be an interesting choice because a change of scene can be a beneficial thing for some veterans who are sick of being where they are. The bottom line is, I don’t think that Jim Pyne, the first pick of the Browns three years ago, will be the caliber of top pick Houston gets. I think Casserly might take a couple of recognizable names who he thinks could be good examples for a young team.

CNNSI.com: Of course, it all comes down to picking worthwhile pieces from a heap. How equipped is the Texans’ management team to do that?

King: One of the big advantages for the Texans, as offensive coordinator Chris Palmer told me a couple of weeks ago, is that their scouting and management team has been in place for an entire NFL season before the expansion draft. If you remember, Palmer basically came right off the Jacksonville coaching sidelines to the Cleveland head coaching job and was thrown into the scouting fray with just weeks to spare before the expansion draft. Casserly, Capers and Palmer have spent the entire offseason scouting college and pro games. That should be a big advantage.

CNNSI.com: Any guesses as to which teams might lose more than one player, or which players might be the most desirable outside the names you’ve already mentioned?

King: I think there were a couple of teams that put interesting players out there for Houston. I expect the Jets to lose Ryan Young, an average-to-good prospect and could step into the Texans’ opening day lineup next fall, as well as cornerback Marcus Coleman, who had a subpar year this season but was a rising star a couple years ago when Bill Parcells coached him.

In addition, if I were Houston I’d pick Jeff Blake, the quarterback left unprotected by New Orleans. Blake never got another chance once Aaron Brooks made his strong showing in 2000, and he still has three or four years of good football left in him. Also, I’d take a gamble on Kenny Holmes, who underachieved with the Giants this year, but is still young enough to have a good career.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL and appears regularly on CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNN's NFL Preview. Click here to send a question to his NFL Mailbag.

 

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