Here are the teams I feel have it tough and the ones that caught a break from the scheduling gods inside NFL headquarters on Park Avenue this week:

FAVORED-NATION STATUS

1. Carolina. John Fox, this is your chance. Carolina opens with two straight at home, against rebuilt Baltimore and 2-14 Detroit. Then the Panthers are at rebuilding Minnesota (a Cats' victory last year) and at Green Bay (OK, that's a loss), followed by a trio of winnables: Arizona, at Dallas, at Atlanta. I'm not saying the Panthers, who won all of one game last year, are any good. What I am saying is that the schedule gives this franchise an excellent chance to be the surprise team of the NFL by Halloween -- if Chris Weinke is a better player than most of us think.

2. Tampa Bay. The Bucs have a tough finish, with Pittsburgh at home and the Bears in Champaign (where Chicago will call home while Soldier Field is being remodeled). But if Tampa Bay hasn't built a 10-4 cushion by then, it's no one else's fault. Ten of the Bucs' first 14 come against teams with losing records last year -- including six in the new NFC South with Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans. How about this stretch beginning in Week 4: at Cincinnati, at Atlanta, Cleveland, at Philly, at Carolina, Minnesota, bye, Carolina. Average wins of those seven foes last year: 5.4. No excuses, Bucs.

3. Chicago. The Bears play four non-playoff teams to start (Vikings, at Falcons, Saints, at Bills), then finish at Carolina and with the fear-of-freezing Bucs on the night of Dec. 29 in Champaign. With its strong defense, the only remotely fearsome attack Chicago will face in the first month and last fortnight is Minnesota's.

IN TROUBLE BEFORE THE OPENING KICKOFF

1. New England. Hey, the Super Bowl champ always has it tough. But show me a schedule in recent years with five games in 25 days, four of them on the road. Here's the Pats' killer stretch come November: at Buffalo, at Chicago, at Oakland (prediction: Walt Coleman will not work that game), Minnesota at home, at Detroit on Thanksgiving on the short week. That's the worst. There's also the matter of opening the season with the Steelers on Monday night and playing at the Jets six days later. It's as if the league is saying, Good thing you guys won last year. You won't survive this schedule.

2. St. Louis. The Rams will be favored to win their first four games (at Denver, Giants, at Tampa Bay, Dallas). But I say they have a heck of shot to start 2-2. Then come the 49ers at 3Com, the Raiders at home. Then there's a breather (Seattle, bye, at Arizona, San Diego). Then Chicago at home and a lethal three-game stretch: at Washington ( Steve Spurrier drools over the chance to take on Mike Martz), at Philadelphia (Revenge City) and at Kansas City (the Vermeil Bowl). The Rams should win the West. But 11-5ish sounds about right to me.

3. Green Bay. The Packers open with ice cream and cookies -- Atlanta, at New Orleans, at Detroit. But in early October Green Bay has two killers in six days, at Chicago on a Monday night and at New England the next weekend. In December, the Pack has the Bears at home and the 49ers and Jets on the road. It's the second straight season that will end in the Meadowlands, and I have a strong feeling that the defensively recharged (after the draft) Jets will put up a much better fight come late December than the mailed-it-in Giants did last season.

My game of the year? Green Bay-New England. (And not because it's the Terry Glenn Reunion Tour, either.) October 13, 1 o'clock. Beautiful New England Sunday. Foliage city. Favre vs. Belichick. New palace of a stadium. This game is the reason there's nothing like an NFL Sunday when the game is big and the dogs are on the grill by 9:15 a.m.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Check out his Monday Morning Quarterback column every -- and you should see this coming -- Monday morning.

 

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