Peppers to Panthers

John Fox, you're on the clock.

Those are words the new Carolina Panthers coach has been waiting to hear for most of his adult life. In 24 years, his assistant-coaching travelogue has taken Fox from San Diego State to U.S. International to Boise State to Long Beach State to Utah to Kansas to Iowa State to the USFL's L.A. Express to the University of Pittsburgh to the Pittsburgh Steelers to the San Diego Chargers to the Oakland Raiders to the St. Louis Rams and to the New York Giants. Fourteen jobs, never any place longer than five years. And now the ultimate post, the one he wants to keep for a decade or more but the one he knows he won't keep longer than two or three unless he turns things around right quick. And now the ultimate pick, the second of Saturday's first round, when the first selection is predetermined -- Houston is taking quarterback David Carr -- and the pick he needs has to play Opening Day and play big.

List of the week The 10 draft factoids you should know ...   1. Miami corner Phillip Buchanon is starting to tick people off with his Deionesque attitude. It could affect which team picks him and how high he goes.  2. Tennessee receiver Donte Stallworth is edging into the top five.  3. Hawaii receiver Ashley Lelie, he of the persistent hamstring strain, did not win friends in the NFL by running pass routes at 80 percent in his final pre-draft workout Friday. Most of the the teams that sent scouts or coaches there hadn't been informed that Lelie wouldn't be 100 percent. So they were surprised to see him not run full-go. "I know some teams are talking about Lelie as a mid-first-rounder," one GM told me Friday night, "but there's just too many questions about him. Can he stay healthy? He's had one big year; is he a product of the run-and-shoot at Hawaii or a great receiver? Is he tough enough to get banged around in the NFL? The pick would be too risky for me."  4. I know one team that has taken Ohio State corner Derek Ross off its draft board because this team views him as a head case with a bad attitude. I know another team that pegs him as a high second-rounder and the third corner in the draft because of his cover skills and his ability to block punts.  5. LSU quarterback Rohan Davey will be a great bargain for someone. What a beautiful ball he throws. The Bengals might luck out if he's available in the second or third round.  6. The Raiders aren't seriously trying to trade up anymore. They need too many players, and four picks in the top 55 (21, 23, 53, 55) should get them two or three real players.  7. Buffalo loves Texas tackle Mike Williams. He looks like a Bill to me.  8. Uh-oh. I hear Daniel Snyder wants a sexy first-round pick. That's trouble.  9. Mike Martz called the other day and said, "Tell me the receivers who definitely won't be there when we pick in the first round." The Rams pick 31st. Lelie and Stallworth, I said. Probably others, but they're all so even, I said. One man's abar Gaffney is another man's Javon Walker (my favorite, by the way, of the sub-Stallworths). The Rams could go 100 different ways with their pick, but I would not be surprised to see them take Boston College running back William Green if he falls that far. Looks like T.J. Duckett is the flavor of the month for some teams.  10. Five top 10 picks were traded either the day before or day of the draft last year. I say no more than two move this year. It's dead out there.

Which is why, I believe, he won't take Joey Harrington.

Which is why, I believe, he will take Julius Peppers.

Not that this is any great mystery. Most of us in the draftnik business (and I am only on the fringe because I don't work it as hard as many of my peers) will pencil in Peppers, the 283-pound mass-of-potential pass-rusher, as the Panthers' pick in mock drafts this week. Driving home from work the other night, Fox called me and set out the parameters that he, general manager Marty Hurney and the Richardson family will use to make this selection.

"We've kind of floated all over the place about the pick," Fox said. "Now it's come down to Joey Harrington, Julius Peppers and Quentin Jammer. More than likely, it'll be one of those three. We haven't had any communication with anybody about trading the pick, so we'll probably sit right at two and take one of those players. I've never done this before, obviously, but we need to take a guy, picking second, who we feel will be able to be an impact guy this year."

What must torment Fox is that he wants to build the best long-term team he can, and he knows Harrington might well be a franchise quarterback. But the reason he won't take Harrington -- my words, not his -- is that he knows Harrington might not be a franchise quarterback, too. "I look around the league in recent years and find that lots of the good quarterbacks are with their second or third teams. Aikman, Marino, Elway. That's three who stayed with one team and were great. Seems like 333 have hit it on their second or third team." And the shoulder surgery to starter Chris Weinke, could that affect the pick? "No," he said. "It's the equivalent of a running back getting a knee scope. He'll be ready in plenty of time for training camp."

The Panthers have neither a dominating defensive end nor a shutdown corner. This is a tough call. But I know Fox, mostly from his days as the Giants' defensive coordinator. He knows Michael Strahan, at his peak, was significantly more important to the defense than a corner could have been. He thinks this kid, Peppers, the basketball/football standout, will be something special. "I watched a basketball tape from one of his North Carolina games the other day," he said. "And that joker is aggressive. Real aggressive. He's an intriguing player."

The Panthers might be making a big mistake by passing on Harrington. We all know that. But chances are if they take Harrington and he turns out to be really good within the next three or four years -- because he's not taking Weinke's job this year -- Fox and his current football regime won't be around to run show in Carolina. And that, fans, is how the draft works today.

By the way, now YOU are on the clock, Matt Millen.

Among draft prospects this year, there is an Antwoine, an Antuan, an Antwaan, an Anton, an Antwon and an Antwan.

1. I think, and I've waffled on this quite a bit in the last few days, a week from today Drew Bledsoe will still be with the Patriots. Not enough good offers -- or even one -- are coming New England's way.

2. I think these are my personal thoughts of the week:

a. Coffeenerdness: Heavyset woman walks into the Starbucks on MacArthur in Dallas early last Tuesday morning. "Venti triple half and half nonfat four equal extra whip white chocolate mocha," she announces. Cashier says to the barista: "Venti skim triple half and half nonfat four Equal extra whip white chocolate mocha," and the barista repeats it word for word. You got that? Here goes: Largest drink, frothed skim milk, three shots of espresso -- one and a half with caffeine, one and a half decaf -- four packets of Equal sugar substitute mixed in, five pumps of white chocolate mocha mix (too many, in my book). My question is, How'd she ever figure out that's what she wanted? It must have taken her five years of experimentation.

b. I say Nate should break it off with the psycho in Six Feet Under and go for the rabbi.

c. I feel good when Colin Powell is representing us in Mission: Impossible over there.

d. Montclair (N.J.) High Softball Note of the Week: The Mounties stand 3-2 traveling to Teaneck Monday, beginning a challenging five-games-in-six-days schedule. Good lesson for soph pitcher Mary Beth King when we traveled to play one of the best teams in Essex County, Belleville. She retired the Bucs in the first and second without incident and got the leadoff hitter in the third. Then six runs came across, one earned, as our defense napped for the rest of the inning. Mary Beth got yanked. Humble pie is a tough thing to to eat. I was thinking about all the things I was going to say to her or e-mail her that night as I prepared to go out of town on business, until I saw the Instant Message she had posted when friends IM'd her. It was all about how that was a bad performance, and we're better than that, and we've got to do something about it as a team. And so I thought: I don't have to say much to her.

3. I think if the Bears draft Syracuse defensive end Dwight Freeney they will have an illegal defense. I mean, they'll just be too good in the front seven.

4. I think I'm no hockey expert, but Devils over Wings for the Cup.

5. I think these are my MLB Extra Innings -prompted baseball thoughts of the week:

a. Jim Kaat made an excellent point, well worth repeating, on the YES network's Yankees-Red Sox opener Friday night. Darren Oliver was pitching to the top of New York's order leading off the game. Nibbling, Oliver threw four straight balls just barely outside the strike zone. Maybe. Quite literally, every pitch could have gone either way. Kaat said, "You know, there are umpires in the big leagues who would have called every one of those a ball, and there are umpires who would have called every one of those a strike."

b. I miss Michael Kay in a big way on the Yankees' radio broadcasts because he was such a superb reporter. But his dialog with Kaat on TV is so interesting. On Saturday, Kay asked Kaat about hitters who peeked back at the catcher, and how much of an advantage it was. Kaat mentioned that Steve Garvey was a big peeker. "I'm surprised Garvey, a borderline Hall of Famer, cheated," said Kay. Countered Kaat: "Maybe that's why he's a borderline Hall of Famer."

c. Pedro Martinez has the most precise placement of pitches in and on the edge and around the strike zone of anyone I've ever seen.

d. Ask me how my rotisserie team's doing. OK, since you asked, my four stud hurlers are Mulder, Zito, Garcia and Marquis the Brave. That's how I'm doing.

e. I love seeing all these local telecasts, all of which it seems Fox owns. The Mariners on TV might be the best. Great commercials boosting the team. And a great soft-shoe done by the Mariner Moose in the promos.

f. The A's batted Scott Hatteberg third again on Sunday. What am I missing here?

g. Still can't believe the Red Sox sold their souls for Manny Ramirez instead of Mike Mussina a year ago.

h. There are times when Dodgers closer Eric Gagne looks tougher to hit than Mariano Rivera.

6. I think if I'm Trent Green, I'm thinking, "The Chiefs are showing an awful lot of interest in Joey Harrington; was someone going to tell me of my planned obsolescence?"

7. I think Paul Zimmerman's mock draft, filed to the office eight days before the draft, is a must-read when you get your SI this week. He's really got it pegged this year, from what I can see.

8. I think the truly amazing thing about Tiger Woods is that he's won seven majors now and he's still a kid. Arnold Palmer, Sam Snead and Bobby Jones won seven majors. Wow.

9. I think, soon, it's going to be all Mel Kiper, all the time.

10. I think, and this is what I'll never get about the draft, that it's bizarre to see Major Applewhite listed below guys from Cal-Northridge, Idaho, Valdosta State and Robert Morris among prospects at quarterback. I mean, I understand his limitations about arm strength, but Applewhite is Jason Garrett. He should be a nice career third-stringer who might earn a promotion to No. 2 somewhere, some day.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Monday Morning Quarterback appears in this space -- no kidding -- on Monday mornings.

 

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