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Title(town) defense * Rams will be challenged if Packers' D stands upPosted: Monday September 02, 2002 11:33 AM
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- I'm picking the Rams, with an asterisk. The asterisk is the Green Bay defense, which might be really good. The other night, I watched the Packers play their last, meaningless, preseason game with Tennessee. Titans head coach Jeff Fisher played this game differently than most of his peers would. While most coaches play their first-stringers two-plus quarters in the third preseason game, Fisher figures why play the starters their longest time 16 days before the opener? Why not play them two-plus quarters in the final preseason game closest to the opener, nine or 10 days prior to the first game? And so here was his first-team offense, with the mighty Eddie George and the fully matured Steve McNair, getting a big bite of playing time, a playoff favorite polishing its act one final time. And the Packers didn't let them breathe. First-half totals: zero points, 86 total yards. George: seven carries, 14 yards. Twice Fisher tossed/punted his headset.
New defensive quarterback Hardy Nickerson roamed sideline to sideline with vigor. (Though I don't expect this necessarily to last; Nickerson's 37 and coming off two injury-plagued seasons.) Free-agent defensive end Joe Johnson, frisky and relentless, showed he'll be a good bookend for Vonnie Holliday. The secondary, underrated and blanketing, didn't let the Titans breathe. This secondary, even without the retired LeRoy Butler, is a beautiful thing to watch. Watch Mike McKenzie play corner this year, and, by the end of the year, you tell me if there's one shred of difference between him and Champ Bailey or Charles Woodson. Right now, I don't see it. On the other side of the ball, one look at Terry Glenn and Javon Walker tells me if Glenn can stay healthy -- and that is the biggest "if" in the NFL this year -- Brett Favre will have the best set of receivers he's had in 11 seasons at the Packers' helm. Walker just gets open. Over the middle, on the sidelines. Fearlessly. Glenn's a piece of china. He could break any Sunday. But he is some fine china. I was very close to picking Green Bay over the Rams to win the NFC, and then everything. I have waffled the past few days, first because I fear the Rams' health, and now more so after seeing the Packers' D on Friday night. But that would be discounting the Rams' defense, which is every bit as good as Green Bay's. Maybe better. Last year, the Pittsburgh defense was the best in the NFL, surrendering 4.5 yards per play. The Rams' D was a tick behind, at 4.7 per play. I can't see the Rams in many games where the offense will need to put up more than 17 points. I can't see the Rams in many games where the offense will score less than 28. I'm about to make my predictions for the season, but I must caution you not to take them very seriously. I stink at predictions. Seven years ago, I picked the Browns to go to the Super Bowl. Five months after my pick, they were a five-win team in moving vans, heading for Baltimore. Seven days ago, I told the fantasy world to take Danny Wuerffel high in Rotisserie drafts. So much for my inside knowledge. But my choices this year do include two wild guesses for wild cards, because recent history shows a lousy team one year invariably winds up in the Super Bowl the next season. Atlanta, St. Louis, the Giants, New England ... hey, may the best guessers win. I'm not sure people realize yet how bitter the wild-card races will be in December. With four division champs automatically qualifying for the playoffs this year, that leaves one less spot for a 'card. You can bet you'll hear the howling from a good team excluded from the playoffs because a lesser team won a division at 8-8 or a weak 9-7. Picking the NFL, division by division:
AFCEast -- By far the toughest division to pick. I will not be surprised if any team in this division wins a division road game. Not one iota. Not even Buffalo winning at Miami. I like New England (10-6) to win the closest race in the league by tiebreakers over the Jets (10-6) and the Dolphins (9-7) and the Bills (8-8). Game of the year: Miami at New England, week 17, Dec. 29. Play of the year: Tom Brady to Deion Branch for all the marbles. Weird story of the year: Miami winning two fewer games with Ricky Williams. North -- Pittsburgh (11-5) cakewalks, but not without some headaches. I think there's a very real chance that Bill Cowher will yank Kordell Stewart for Tommy Maddox if Stewart struggles early; Cowher loves Maddox the leader and Maddox the marksman, and he's not afraid to go to him. Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress, too, may chafe at all the balls thrown Antwaan Randle El's way. That kid's going to be a big star. Cleveland (9-7) should make a legit playoff run, because six of its last seven games are against teams that look to be losers this year; I like the Browns' wild-card tiebreaker chances against Miami. Cincinnati (6-10) needs a quarterback. Baltimore (4-12) needs a quarterback -- and a supporting cast for one. South -- I am Missouri about the Colts' defense. They've got to show me. Until they do, Tennessee (10-6) is my team here. The Colts (9-7) are closer than before with Dwight Freeney and Larry Tripplett on the front line. Kevin Carter will be reborn with the Titans, finally. I see him and Jevon Kearse combining for 28 sacks and much mayhem. Jacksonville (5-11) and Houston (4-12) will surprise no one. West -- I must say I am clueless about the West. I entered my summer camp tour thinking Denver would come back strong, but now I'm not so sure. Their receivers are getting old, and getting hurt too much. Brian Griese is two bad starts from the bench. I wanted to like Kansas City, but half of its summer was mayhem, and I think its tackles, William Roaf and John Tait, could be turnstiles. And so I return to Oakland (9-7), believing the Raiders veterans have one more division run left in them, in a tiebreaker over Denver (9-7). The Chiefs (8-8) get better behind a very good year from Trent Green. San Diego (7-9) endures the struggles of playing a kid quarterback, Drew Brees. The Wild Cards -- New York, Cleveland.
NFCEast -- No one's beating Philadelphia (11-5), unless someone gets on a hot streak. The Eagles aren't the best team in the NFL, or the NFC, but they're good from the top to the bottom of the roster, and few other teams in the NFL can compete with their depth. Having said that, I wish that the two times I'd seen Donovan McNabb in August -- once in a practice, once in a game -- he'd been more accurate. And I wish Andy Reid had cracked open the ol' cap wallet last spring to buy Keenan McCardell. Washington (9-7) will be better at the end of the year than the beginning, once the Spurrier Way kicks in. The Cowboys (7-9) are a year away. The Giants (7-9) are an absolute mystery to me. If Kerry Collins is good, they'll be over .500. Guaranteed. North -- Green Bay (11-5) rebounds from the worst game of Favre's life (six picks vs. St. Louis in the playoffs last year) and finds two new stars to lead the way. Walker "has turned into a go-to-guy in one training camp," safety Darren Sharper says. And McKenzie sends these chilling words to the rest of the NFC: "You will not run on us. At all. And then we tell our secondary: Go hunt. Go get it." Seduction is easy in August, but I really like this team. The Bears (9-7) had a nice, quiet offseason. I wish I trusted their offense for the days their defense allows 17, but I don't. I can't figure any reason to like Minnesota (5-11) much, because the Vikes will have to win a slew of 37-31 games to be in the race. And I like Detroit (4-12) less. South -- Tampa Bay (11-5) has to be chortling. Carolina (3-13) is changing quarterbacks today, going from the scatter-armed Chris Weinke to the 36-year-old Rodney Peete, who last started a game in 1998. Atlanta (8-8) isn't ready to contend yet, unless Michael Vick is further along than any of us really think. And New Orleans (7-9) ... well, I don't know which Saint is going to be a pass-rusher, or a pass-coverer. That's not good entering a football season. Meanwhile, Michael Pittman is going to the Pro Bowl, and Jon Gruden is going deep into the playoffs. West -- St. Louis (12-4) meets its match in the division from San Francisco (11-5). The 49ers saw their 17-game winning streak in the rivalry busted by the Rams in 1999, and St. Louis has won all six games since. This year, they split. Fittingly. Here's an interesting stat. We all love Jeff Garcia, right? Great player, still quite underrated, heck of a guy, modest and unassuming. Well, Kurt Warner threw for almost 1,300 more yards than Garcia last year. I worry about the Rams' health, because Warner is a banged thumb from missing more time, and Marshall Faulk is bothered by these loose bodies that rub around in his knee at the worst times. My worry about the Niners is different. They drafted rush havoc-wreakers number one in the 2000 and 2001 drafts, Julian Peterson and Andre Carter. They combined for all of 9 1/2 sacks last year. Turn it up, men. Seattle (8-8) should be better than 24-25 entering Mike Holmgren's fourth year, right? Arizona (5-11) has a terrific head coach, Dave McGinnis, and about five terrific players. Not enough to do anything but cellar-dwell, I'm afraid. The Wild Cards -- San Francisco, Washington. The playoffs:
AFC seeds:
NFC seeds:
One final proviso, from Favre: "If we get home field, it's over. We're not losing at home." Consider yourselves forewarned, Rams.
The $295 million overhaul of Lambeau Field won't be finished for a year, but the Packers already have 30 weddings booked for the atrium of the stadium beginning in fall 2003.
1. I think I'm as happy as the next guy that baseball will be strike-free until at least 2007, and I think this was probably the best deal owners could have gotten, but I'm fairly sure the deal won't affect competitive balance much. The Yankees had to give something like $32 million in revenue-sharing to the bottom teams this year. Next year, under the new deal, they'll have to give something in the neighborhood of $47 million. Does anyone think that will make any difference in how George Steinbrenner runs his business, and who he signs? Does anyone think he won't go out and get a Carlos Beltran or whoever the outfielder of his dreams is this offseason when he tries to solve the only weakness among his position players -- left field? This deal will do absolutely nothing to stop the Yankees steamroller. The New York Times had a great stat Sunday. The last time Pittsburgh made the playoffs, 10 years ago, the Pirates payroll was $5 million less than the Yankees. This year's opening-day Yankee payroll was $92 million more than Pittsburgh's. The times, they aren't a-changin'. 2. I think maybe Jamal Anderson or someone close to him wanted the world to think he simply changed his mind last Tuesday and didn't sign with the Patriots because of concern over the condition of his surgically repaired knee. What really happened is Anderson was very keen to play in New England, but he flunked the team's conditioning run. It's a tough running test, but no Marine boot camp thing. Bernie Kosar passed the same test the last five years of his career. The next time Anderson wants to resume his career, it might be wise for him to be in shape. 3. I think I was reminded of why the NFL has things so much more in control than baseball last Thursday night, in the first mile I drove after spending some time at Brett Favre's house. Very nearly in the shadows of the new light stanchions of Lambeau Field, I drove out of a neighborhood toward my hotel across town, and in the first mile I saw, in order, a woman walking two dogs, a high-schoolish boy shooting baskets in his driveway, three joggers, two moms and dads pushing strollers, and a father and son (I am not making this up) having a catch with a baseball and gloves. The Green Bay feeling is something. Without revenue-sharing, without splitting the TV pie 32 ways, Favre and the Packers would never have happened. The Packers were kept alive, in part, by loans from George Halas before the TV money hit in the '60s. The Packers would have died sometime in the '70s, at the latest, without the football pie being split as it is. Bitch about what ails the NFL if you want -- the ridiculous parity, the ridiculous uniformity of it all, the ridiculous roster shuffling every spring -- but it is the smartest, and most compelling, game in the United States today. 4. I think if the Giants aren't careful, San Francisco's Terrell Owens might put up three scores Thursday night. The man is primed. 5. I think these are my personal thoughts of the week: a. Since when did Thursday night football become so big in college football? I counted 29 Division I or I-AA games last Thursday. What gives? Saturday no good for you guys? b. Montclair (N.J.) High Field Hockey Note of the Week: It's that time of year again. Field hockey nerdness. Oh, I love it. What a game. Tremendous end-to-end action. The thing I really like about the game is that talent is important, but determination wins. Anyway, we come off a 16-2-4, state-tournament-tested team, having lost our goalie, our entire back line, our second-leading scorer and our center midfielder, the most important position on most field hockey teams. Early on in summer camp, the coaches have been experimenting with a couple of girls -- co-captain Lyndsay Wilson and your favorite player of all, junior Mary Beth King (cast off the broken right forearm from the softball injury) -- at left and right link. That's sort of an offensive midfield position, from what I can tell. But my field hockey knowledge would fit in a thimble, I'm afraid. So I'll have to see one of our scrimmages this week to figure out how the new position's going to work out, or if they're going to play it. c. Does anyone remember their kids doing so much summer homework? Mary Beth has been as busy the last couple of weeks as she is during most school weeks. She's got a Kurt Vonnegut book going, and Revolutionary War definitions. Is this what's going to get her into Dartmouth? d. Coffeenerdness: Is it too much to ask for a little pastry variety at Starbucks? I mean, I like coffee cake as much as the next guy, but not the same kind, in every darn Starby's boutique nationwide. Variety, please. e. Big night tonight at the Goldstein house. Montclair SI Bears awards night. The challenge for me, as usual on softball awards night, will be to say something laudatory about each of the kid I've coached (10-and-under girls, in this case) without hearing my voice crack. I fail most times. 6. I think this is why I like Tom Brady: I was talking to him on the phone recently, and I told him how, with a couple of minutes left in the Super Bowl, I was on the fence with my Super Bowl MVP ballot. I'm one of the 15 or so media people who vote for the thing. Anyway, I told Brady the league people were pressing me for my ballot, but I couldn't give it to them with the game hanging in the balance, but I wrote down Otis Smith just in case the Patriots won because I thought he was a perfect representative of this little-engine-that-could team, and then Brady led the Patriots downfield in 63 seconds for the winning field, completing clutch pass after clutch pass, and then he got them in position for the winning field goal, and then the field goal was kicked, and the Patriots won, and I scratched out Otis Smith and wrote in Tom Brady on my ballot. When I finished telling him the story, there was a three-second pause. I thought the cell phone was going into a lousy cell zone. Just then, I heard Brady say, with a slight chortle: "You just gave me goosebumps." How can you not like the man? 7. I think Mike Martz has to be pretty worried about his offense if he pays a six in 2004 for a receiver, Troy Edwards, who won't be ready to play for a couple of weeks and who the Steelers were going to cut. 8. I think I would like to congratulate Robert Edwards. What a story, making the Dolphins after almost getting his leg amputated three and a half years ago after the beach football accident. 9. I think I have one message for the Chargers: Thaw. You need Quentin Jammer. 10. I think sportswriters on the NFL beats will have an interesting dilemma in four months: Is Randy Moss an MVP if he shatters the receiving records and plays for a sub-.500 team?
Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Monday Morning Quarterback appears in this space -- no kidding -- on Monday mornings.
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