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Rough draft In my evaluation of 1998 picks, no team earned an APosted: Monday May 12, 2003 11:42 AM
I'm not a big draft-report-card guy. It comes down to this: No matter how many times you read Mel Kiper's analysis and no matter how many GMs you talk to about prospects and no matter how many guys you think a team stole because the player was still available in the third round when every draftnik had him going late in the first, you can't really grade how a team did in a draft before the draft choices put on their first mini-camp jockstraps. A couple of weeks ago, a radio talk-show host suggested to me that it would be interesting to go back five years and, looking at what has happened since, analyze how the teams made out in that particular draft. "Great idea," I replied. And the more I thought about it, the more curious I became. Thus was spawned the idea of grading a draft after it has had time to breathe. From Peyton Manning to Cam Quayle, I've evaluated the 30 teams that selected -- and the 241 players who were picked -- in the 1998 draft, and judged each team by several different categories:
That last category is the one I like the most. When you pick a player, you hope at the very least the guy fills a role that improves the team. Starting half the games or more, to me, is the mark of a player who has improved the team. I've ranked the players by NFL starts, but those starts were not necessarily made for the team that drafted them. Cornerback Duane Starks' 53 starts, for instance, have been combined from his four years in Baltimore and one in Arizona.
Cincinnati has the best percentage of draftees who've started at least half the games since 1998. Now, this won't automatically translate into a top grade for the Bengals when I grade the teams (as you'll see below) because you can't call Artrell Hawkins an excellent NFL cornerback, despite his 63 NFL starts; Hawkins was entering a cornerbacking black hole in 1998, meaning anyone the Bengals drafted at that time would have been a marked improvement. Any wonder Bobby Grier was politely excused from New England and Bobby Beathard similarly excised from San Diego? On with the grades of the 1998 draft, from worst to best:
F
D-
D
C-
C
C+
B-
B
B+
That's it. What? No A's? That's right. I don't grade on a curve. And that's what makes the draft game so hard. Very, very rarely does a team put together a draft that excels throughout, and there wasn't one in 1998.
PING … From Matt of Keller, Texas: "Wow! What a great story about the Mounties. Last year I read the story to my four girls at our dinner table -- one plays, one used to and one can't wait to. I printed this one out for some more family dinner reading." … PONG … From From Richard of Huntsville, Ala.: "You come across like a soccer mom who can't resist any opportunity to toot her kid's horn." … PING … From Abe DeGuzman Jr. of Los Angeles: "Intense, dramatic, exciting. At the end of the story I had goosebumps on my arms and a smile on my face." … PONG … From Brian of Boston: "For the past six months, every one of your columns oozes self-importance, name-dropping and narcissistic tendencies as epitomized by you vicariously living through your daughter. What I read from you now is an astonishing chronicle of a man who has thoroughly outgrown his britches, whose ego knows no bounds, who desperately seeks to become the story instead of covering it. Your blustery arrogance is totally despicable. When did you start hating fans?" … PING … From Shaun Harper of parts unknown: "Absolutely lovely and touching article about your daughter's game. Keep them coming. We all need to be reminded about wonderful the game, any game, can be." … PONG … From Chad of Honolulu: "I hate (and I rarely use this word) your Montclair reports. YOU DO NOT HAVE THE RIGHT TO USE YOUR STATUS IN SPORTS ILLUSTRATED TO PROMOTE THE CAREERS OF YOUR DAUGHTERS AND THEIR FRIENDS. I'll make you a deal. Keep your Montclair news providing you open every one of your TV reports with, 'Before I get into the NFL news, let me tell you about my daughter Mary Beth and her field hockey game yesterday.' " … PING … From Diane Zurliene of Fairfield, Ill.: "I sit here with tears in my eyes after reading your account of the softball game. I coached for 17 years before I became a principal in rural southern Illinois, and I agree with your assessment: This is what sports is all about, and it doesn't matter which gender is competing." … PONG … From Michael Willis of Philadelphia: "Nooooooo! No more stories about girls softball! It's like nails on a chalkboard. You might as well be writing about full-contact origami." … PING … From Carl Tinkham of Raleigh, N.C.: "After reading your column on Montclair softball, I can only hope that when I am a parent, I will have the same passion for, and pride in, my family that you've been kind enough to share with us all." … PONG. From David Swanson of Boston: "I believe I speak for the vast majority of MMQB Nation when I say I hope and I pray that Mary Beth does not receive a college athletic scholarship. I just can't go through four more years of this. I'm getting carpel tunnel from scrolling over these inane stories every week. But I'm sure if Mary Beth is not competing at the college level we'll be reading English 101 updates. I can't wait."
a. Culpepper signed for a bonus of $8 million. But only $2 million comes now. He'll get $3 million on March 15, 2004 and $3 million on March 15, 2005. b. If Culpepper continues to fumble and turn the ball over at an alarming pace, the Vikings will have a couple of options. In the next two years, Culpepper is due to make $10.08 million from this deal. Before he is paid a scheduled roster bonus in 2005 of $2.5 million, the Vikings could divorce him and make his signing bonus proration penalty manageable by spreading it over 2005 and 2006. This, of course, is not likely to happen, but it's a comfort for the team to know that it has this outlet if it needs one. c. Here's how contracts like this make headlines but are essentially as phony as a three-dollar bill: There's a clause in the contract that Culpepper can earn $900,000 if he participates in 75 percent of more of the Vikings' special teams plays. Culpepper doesn't play on special teams. He's a quarterback. Why are we taken for such suckers when contracts come up? This clause is why. 2. I think I wrote about Mike Price last week knowing two things: that he went to a strip club and engaged a woman for company, whatever that company entailed. I didn't know about other warnings he'd gotten from the university. Many of the letter-writers to this column in the past week wrote me either after more information about his troubles surfaced or with the assumption that he had been previously warned by the university administration to tone down his lifestyle a bit. As of this writing, I cannot tell accurately how much wrongdoing Price has done. If it's a one-night deal at a strip club, I still don't think he should have been fired. If it turns out to be more, and he turns out to be a serial whatever, I reserve the right to change my mind. 3. I think it'd be pretty darned ridiculous to throw Bob Ryan, a very good man, under the bus for making a stupid comment about how he'd like to smack Joumana Kidd, wife of Nets guard Jason Kidd. I know Bob Ryan. He is an honorable and good person. He's already paying more of a price for saying he's like to smack Joumana Kidd than her husband paid for actually smacking her. So let's let Ryan do his time and give him a pass back into the human race next month, shall we? 4. I think I would be worried if I had Priest Holmes in a fantasy league. The Chiefs said during the week his rehab from hip surgery is on track and he'll begin running in June. When you're supposed to start getting whacked around in July, that doesn't leave much time for a setback. The Larry Johnson pick might be the smartest selection any team made two weeks ago. 5. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week: a. Finally a Six Feet Under worth watching. Real death. Real dealing with death, and the prospect of it. One slightly unbelievable thing, though: Would Nate be so driven to nutsoness over the possible death of Lisa, when Lisa and he were headed toward splitsville anyway? The best character on the show continues to be Claire, who is more like a young and rebellious college student than any young and rebellious college student in America. b. Montclair (N.J.) High Softball Note of the Week: There is no joy in Mudville. Bloomfield 4, Montclair 0, Saturday night in the Essex County Softball Tournament semifinals before 500 at Pulaski Park in Bloomfield. Just not the Mounties' night, and just not junior southpaw Mary Beth King's, either. She was thrown out at home trying to score from second on a single. She took a third strike looking, which is highly uncharacteristic. She gave up a few hits. Give Bloomfield credit. This is a well-drilled, fine-fielding team, and smart too. Now MHS gears up for the state tournament, which begins late next week, and we finish our regular-season schedule in the meantime. Keep your heads up, girls. Last year after 21 games MHS was 14-7. This year the record is 15-6. c. Coffeenerdness. While waiting in line at the Upper Montclair, N.J., Starbucks behind six others before 9 o'clock on Mother's Day morning, I looked around at the jam-packed seats and tables in the place, and recalled the advice of a stockbroker friend of mine from about 10 years ago. He said: "Don't buy Starbucks stock. They're way overextended. It's a house of cards." And I'm the joker, obviously. d. I'll say one thing about the Red Sox, regarding the 9-8 loss to Minnesota last night and their general play so far this year: They don't have enough pitching to win, but they sure do make it fun to watch. 6. I think we often let slide the comings and goings of people in the game, particularly people the public doesn't know. But the other day Rick Smith retired as the PR maven of the Rams. He's one of the all-time greats at what he did. He took pains to know you, to know what a story was, to know when he could fight battles and when he could win them. His retirement should not just be a line in the transactions. He made covering the Rams, even during the trying times last season, as manageable as possible. Young PR folks in the game, any game, should go to the Rick Smith School, and they're certain to have a fabulous career, too. 7. I think, speaking of Red McCombs and his future, how does the Los Angeles Vikings sound? I don't think it's imminent, and my gut feeling is the team will stay in Minnesota, but he's not going to continue to run this franchise with his current stadium deal. 8. I think, looking over the spring NFL Competition Committee report the other day, a couple of items caught my eye: a. More points were scored in the fourth quarter last year -- 12.36 per game -- than in any year since 1988. b. Last year's rushing yardage average (232.3 yards per game) was also the highest since 1988. And there still were games, plenty of them, in which the ball was flung all over the lot. That shows in the 4.96 touchdowns per game, the most since 1987. My gut feeling is this is a pretty well-balanced game right now. 9. I think Sammy Knight looks more and more like a Dolphin, and he's a good, instinctive ballhawk. But if you ask Jim Haslett, he'll tell you Knight's a 5.1-seconds-in-the-40 guy, which is OK for a guard but not too good for a safety. 10. I think Clinton Portis' contract standoff with the Broncos sounds ominous. And I don't think Mike Shanahan will give in. What we have here, basically, is a situation in which a guy was drafted in the second round, had a high-first-round rookie year and now wants to get paid like a high-first-round player. Shanahan will pay him something more, but not without tacking another year or two on the contract. My advice to Portis: Suck it up for one more year. Gain 1,500 yards. Then you'll get the real money. You're not going to get real money in the NFL after three great months. Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Monday Morning Quarterback appears in this space every week. Click here to send him a comment. |
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Chargers. One national magazine whose name I will not mention wrote about how Ryan Leaf would be humongously better than Peyton Manning. At what? Quitting? But the Chargers' 1998 draft would almost be an F even without Leaf. If there were a lower grade, say a "G" or an "H," I'd give it to San Diego for this one. The Chargers mortgaged the future, trading their 2000 first-round pick, just so they could take that incredible talent, Mikhael Ricks, with the 59th overall pick. San Diego had six picks, and here are the final four: Cedric Harden, Clifford Ivory, Jon Haskins and Kio Sanford. Five years later you can still smell the disaster that was this draft.
Patriots. Can't blame the Patriots for Robert Edwards shredding his knee in Hawaii, and Tebucky Jones has turned out to be an above-average safety. But what about the five other picks in the first four rounds? Tony Simmons, Rod Rutledge, Chris Floyd, Greg Spires and Leonta Rheams.
They passed on Hines Ward, Roland Willams, Fred Beasley, Brandon Whiting and James Cannida. Wow.
Jets. They stay out of F-ville only because their first two picks went to the Patriots in the Bill Parcells compensation deal. But what a lousy haul, led by the forgettable top two selections of Dorian Boose and Scott Frost. Jason Fabini has started 73 games, and, as a fourth-round pick, was a solid pickup at tackle. But their other 11 selections have started a combined 16 NFL games. Pathetic.
Panthers. They received high marks after this draft for rebuilding a terrible defensive line with the first three picks -- Jason Peter, Chuck Wiley and Mitch (Don't Call Me Bone) Marrow. Ouch. Only Wiley, with 17 career starts, remains in pro football.
Dolphins. Not Jimmy Johnson's finest hour. Knowing his love for the 12-ounce green bottles, could he possibly have been drafting during Happy Hour? John Avery in the first round? Brad Jackson and Larry Shannon in the third? Only Patrick Surtain, an excellent corner taken with the 44th overall pick, saves this from being an F-bomb.
Ravens. I've never been a huge Starks fan, and he's all this class has. Patrick Johnson has been a disappointment as a burner receiver, and the next three picks were Martin Chase, Ryan Sutter and Ron Rogers. Say no more.
Bills. Traded their first-round pick for Rob Johnson. Made a great selection of Sam Cowart with the 39th pick in the draft. Got nothing even remotely serviceable with their final five picks. This draft is one of the reasons Tom Donahoe had to play such aggressive catchup ball when he took over as GM
three years later.
Giants. The Giants only had six picks, and Shaun Williams and Joe Jurevicius are good-to-very good NFL players. (Joey J. will now be a star in Tampa, which figures, because the Giants have let two tall drinks of water, Ed McCaffrey and Jurevicius, go only to see them shine elsewhere.) Then they reached for a receiver, Brian Alford, who turned out to be horrible, and the Jints got nothing out of their Day 2 picks. No team in the NFL has coaxed fewer collective NFL starts (70) from its '98 draft class than the Giants.
Jaguars. It's tempting to look at the selections of Fred Taylor and Donovin Darius in the first round, and workmanlike center John Wade in the fifth, and call this a decent crop. But if you stink up the joint on the other eight picks (which ranged from Cordell Taylor to Brandon Tolbert), as Tom Coughlin did, you've done a mediocre job at best.
Redskins. Stephen Alexander in the second round and Shawn Barber in the fourth. Nice picks. Beyond that, a bunch of schmoes.
Bears. Fell for the ol' Penn State running back trap and took Curtis Enis with the fifth pick overall. You cannot waste the fifth pick in the draft and be graded well. In Rounds 2 and 3, Tony Parrish -- one of only two players to start 80 of 80 games since this draft -- and center Olin Kreutz were divine picks. The last five picks never did much for the Bears, though Chris Draft, the sixth-round linebacker, went on to play well for Atlanta.
Buccaneers. A Byzantine draft. Follow this: The Bucs traded their first pick to Oakland for two second-rounders. They shipped one of the second-rounders to San Diego for a 2000 first-round pick. Combined that pick with their own selection in 2000 to acquire Keyshawn Johnson. So their No. 1 pick this year, the 23rd overall selection, equates to Jacquez Green -- a perennial disappointment -- and half of Keyshawn Johnson. Commeç
i, commeç
a. The Bucs' second (Brian Kelly), third (Jamie Duncan) and sixth (James Cannida) selections all have been serviceable or better NFL players considering where they were picked.
Lions. The good: Four of the five picks still are in the game. The bad: They traded three picks to move up to take Charlie Batch, who was their quarterback of the future for about three cups of coffee and then sacked, literally and figuratively, by the Millen regime. Top pick Terry Fair played his way out of Detroit. Second-round selection Germane Crowell was a very good wideout for two or three years before blowing out his knee. Today the Lions have nothing to show for this draft.
Seahawks. Any draft that includes acquiring Ahman Green in the third round and Bobby Shaw in the sixth has to be better than average. But that's all it is -- in part because the Seahawks dumped these guys and got nothing in return. Anthony Simmons and Todd Weiner -- another member of the Seahawks Alumni Association -- were good first- and second-round picks.
Steelers. I remember New York radio/TV czar Mike Francesa laughing me out of a studio for picking the 92nd overall choice, Hines Ward, as my preseason rookie of year. I probably deserved that, considering the draft featured Peyton Manning. But any team that selects Hines Ward with the 92nd pick, then follows through by putting him in position to make plays, deserves some major props. First-round pick Alan Faneca and Ward are both two-time Pro Bowlers after five NFL seasons, and sixth-round pick Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala is a serviceable NFL back. They make up for the Jeremy Staat and Chris Conrad selections in Rounds 2 and 3.
Saints. The Saints had three picks in the top 100, and all of them -- Kyle Turley, Cam Cleeland, Fred Weary -- have had some degree of NFL success, Turley the most, obviously. The last five picks -- other than a brief flurry of goodness from linebacker Chris Bordano, who later brought an OK corner, Kevin Mathis, via trade from Dallas -- were non-impact guys.
Cardinals. It's not their fault Andre Wadsworth (knee microfracture surgery) ended up bombing out, though he still goes down as a wasted pick. Smart choices in the second (tackle Anthony Clement), third (Michael Pittman) and seventh (Pat Tillman) rounds made this a better-than-average crop.
Bengals. I like this draft, but it's hard to love it after watching this core of players just add to the Bengals' misery index during the past five years. If players get drafted and start a lot of games and the team still stinks, how can a draft be called superb? Five players have started 40 or more games -- first-round selections/linebackers Takeo Spikes (79) and Brian Simmons (60), second-round corner Hawkins (63), and third-round linebacker Steve Foley (45) and guard Mike Goff (51). All of those picks came in the top 80. To me, it's a good-but-not-great haul.
Chiefs. Tackle Victor Riley was the centerpiece here, and he's in New Orleans now. But the best overall pick was a seventh-rounder, cornerback Eric Warfield, who has started 36 games and earned a rich new contract last season to play for the Chiefs long-term. Fourth-rounder Greg Favors (31 starts) and sixth-rounder Derrick Ransom (26) have been good draft values.
Cowboys. Nice draft, but not great, up and down the line. Greg Ellis has never been the impact rusher the Cowboys hoped he'd be as the eighth pick in the draft, though he has started 76 games. Second-round tackle Flozell Adams was an excellent pick. And the Cowboys got excellent mid-round value, though no long-term great players, in the guts of the draft -- defensive tackle Michael Myers (24 career starts) in the fourth; linebacker Darren Hambrick (56), a good tackle prospect for Pittsburgh now; Oliver Ross (nine) in the fifth; and safety/special-teamer Izell Reese (30) in the sixth.
Falcons. Keith Brooking has become a centrpiece defensive player, which the 12th pick in the draft obviously doesn't always turn out to be. Bob Hallen, Tim Dwight (who scored a Super Bowl touchdown) and Ephraim Salaam are very good picks for the late-second, fourth and seventh rounds.
Packers. It's tough to grade a draft this well when the Pack blew their third and fourth round selections (Jonathan Brown, Roosevelt Blackmon). But the first-round pick, Vonnie Holliday, was excellent value for the 19th overall selection, and a good NFL wideout (Corey Bradford) came in the fifth. The
reason this draft rates a B is Matt Hasselbeck, the pet of former Packers QB coach Andy Reid. When you take a quarterback with the 187th pick, and you trade him for a future first-rounder (actually, an advantageous flip of first-round picks with Seattle), and he leads the NFL in passing yards for the final seven weeks of 2002, well, that's a good pick.
Colts. Even though they probably snagged themselves a future Hall of Famer, I ask you: How tough was it really to take Peyton Manning with the first overall pick in the draft? I give the Colts credit, but let's not go overboard. Second-rounder Jerome Pathon's a nice NFL receiver, just not for the Colts anymore, and guard Steve McKinney has been a very good starter almost since Day 1, which is great for a fourth-round pick.
Rams. Four solid NFL starters (Grant Wistrom, Leonard Little, Az Hakim and Roland Williams) really helped put the Rams into position for the Super Bowl win two years later.
Raiders. Charles Woodson and Mo Collins have combined to start 124 games for the 2002 AFC champs. Second-rounder Leon Bender died. Third-rounder Jon Ritchie was a good value at fullback for five years. Look for fifth-rounder Travian Smith (five starts) to be a contributing NFL linebacker going forward.
Broncos. I'd love to grade this draft higher, because it intrigues me. But I can't, not with first-rounder Marcus Nash having been a total washout. The Broncos, defending Super Bowl champs, drafted last, remember, and this is what they got: safety Eric Brown (67 starts) in the second, quarterback Brian Griese (51) in the third, and, in the seventh, offensive lineman Trey Teague and linebacker Nate Wayne. Now Teague and Wayne are starting elsewhere now, but those are two NFL starters, plucked in the seventh round of a draft. Nice job. As for Griese, let's not throw him over the side of the boat. He did win an NFL passing title. He was miles better than the second overall pick in the draft. And for the 91st pick in the draft, that's pretty impressive.
Eagles. Another solid draft from a team that usually does well. Tra Thomas, Jeremiah Trotter, Allen Rossumand Brandon Whiting with the first four picks. That's what I call four-for-four. The amazing thing is the Eagles cleaned house before the next draft, and the Mike Lombardi/Bryan Broaddus personnel crew was flushed down the toilet with the Ray Rhodes coaching staff. I know it has turned out well for the Eagles, but someone still needs to explain the personnel side of that sacking to me. Makes no sense.
Titans. Value throughout. Kevin Dyson's no Randy Moss, but he has been a good NFL receiver. Samari Rolle, the second-round pick, has turned into a top-10 NFL corner in his 62 starts. Third-rounder Dainon Sidney's a solid backup and special-teamer. Fifth-rounder Benji Olson and seventh-rounder Kevin Long both turned into starters for a while; Olson still is one. Not a famous draft, but a very nice one.
Vikings. Talk about bang for the buck. How about Randy Moss with the 21st overall pick and the best center in the NFC, Matt Birk, in the sixth round? Throw in Kailee Wong -- though he's not there anymore -- and I'll forget Kivuusama Mays in the fourth and Kerry Cooks in the fifth.
49ers. Picking late in every round after a 13-3 season, the Niners got good value throughout on four players. R.W. McQuarters mostly failed here, but he's a good corner in Chicago now. Jeremy Newberry, the second-round center, is one of the best in the business. Fourth-rounder Lance Schulters was a Pro Bowl safety before leaving last year for Tennessee. And sixth-rounder Fred Beasley's a gem, my favorite runner/blocker of any fullback in the game.
