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No guarantees on QBs NFL teams should use prime picks more wiselyPosted: Monday April 29, 2002 3:45 PM
Sports Illustrated senior writer Phil Taylor touches on a Hot Button issue each Monday on CNNSI.com. After you read Phil's take, give us yours. Some guy named David Garrard was the Jaguars' fourth-round pick in the NFL Draft 10 days ago. David Garrard is a quarterback from East Carolina. With that sentence, I have completely exhausted my reservoir of knowledge about David Garrard. I don't know whether he's right- or left-handed, how fast he runs the 40, or if he has the arm strength to throw the deep out. But I do know this: There's a decent chance that David Garrard will have as productive a pro career as David Carr, who went to the Texans as the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. If it's not David Garrard who goes on to outshine Carr, then it will probably be someone like him. Maybe Wes Pate (from Stephen F. Austin, a seventh-round selection by the Ravens) or J.T. O'Sullivan (from UC Davis, a sixth-round selection by the Saints). Nothing against Carr or Joey Harrington, taken by the Lions with the third overall pick, but history has shown that the best quarterbacks aren't always those everyone salivates over in the draft. In fact, the QB everybody loves coming out of college rarely turns out to be the best pro. For every Terry Bradshaw, the top pick of the 1970 draft who wound up getting into the Hall of Fame, there is a Jeff George, the No. 1 pick 20 years later who wound up getting on the nerves of just about every coach who ever worked with him. That's why it's baffling to see NFL teams continue to spend their prime picks on quarterbacks. Personnel people just can't help being seduced by the big, strong-armed passer who looks like a star, and they ignore the fact that based on past results, going for one of those guys with a high pick just isn't a smart investment. There have been 12 quarterbacks taken with the No. 1 overall pick since 1970 -- Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, Steve Bartkowski, John Elway, Vinny Testaverde, Troy Aikman, George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick and Carr. Of those, only Bradshaw, Elway and Aikman became the kind of franchise players you hope to get with the first pick. (The jury's still out on some of the others.) Good quarterbacks come from everywhere -- from the Canadian Football League, like the 49ers' Jeff Garcia, or the Arena Football League, like the Rams' Kurt Warner. Several of the league's top signal callers, like Garcia, Warner and the Raiders' Rich Gannon, are guys who bounced around a bit in the pros before hitting their stride. The league is full of starting quarterbacks who were hardly considered can't-miss players coming out of college, like Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Kordell Stewart and Jay Fiedler. There were seven QBs chosen for the Pro Bowl last year -- Favre, Garcia, Warner, Donovan McNabb, Gannon, Brady and Stewart. McNabb, picked second overall by the Eagles in 1999, was the only one of that group who was a first-round draft choice. It may be that quarterback is such a complex position, requiring a wide range of physical and mental skills, that it's harder to project than other position. That theory makes it even more logical to avoid going for a QB from central casting. Better to use a top pick on a stud running back or a ferocious pass rusher. When it comes time to fill the quarterback spot, take a look at guys who have already proved they can play the position on the pro level -- any pro level -- like Garcia, Warner and Gannon, guys who fit your system. Those glamour-boy quarterbacks may look good up on the draft podium, but I'd just as soon put my money on -- what's his name again? Oh yeah, David Garrard. Sports Illustrated senior writer Phil Taylor writes about a Hot Button issue every Monday on CNNSI.com. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the
writer.
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