Pigskin puzzle

NFL playoff scenarios have rarely been so complex

We are sports fans, and we know what the rest of the world thinks of us. They think we are fat, lazy, unrefined, immature couch potatoes. This is inaccurate, of course. Not all of us are fat.

The most pervasive stereotype about us is that we are not exactly the smartest subset of the population. Let's face it, intellectually speaking, the rest of society considers the average sports lover to be a couple yards short of a first down. Maybe that's understandable, given that the most visible members of our group are often loud, drunk and wearing nothing from the waist up except body paint to match their favorite team's colors, or, in the case of Cincinnati Bengals fans, some sort of mask to conceal their identities.

But this is our time, our annual moment to flex our mental muscles. The final few weeks of the NFL season, with its complicated and convoluted playoff scenarios, is the sports fan's yearly opportunity to prove that he or she has a little something going on upstairs beside point spreads and completion percentages. Sure, when our algebra teacher asked us to solve for X back in high school, we thought she wanted us to figure out whatever happened to Xavier McDaniel. But when it comes to, say, Cleveland's wild-card chances, we're regular Einsteins.

Stephen Hawking may have been able to write A Brief History of Time, but can he give us a succinct summation of the AFC East? We, the sports fans, can. We know that if the New York Jets beat the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins next week the Jets are division champs. But if the Jets lose and the Patriots win, however, the Pats take the division. And should the Patriots lose it doesn't matter whether the Jets win or lose because the Dolphins are the division champions. What's more, we can say it all in one breath.

Rarely has there been a more mentally demanding set of possible playoff permutations than there is this year. When play began last weekend not a single playoff berth had been clinched in the AFC, the first time in 15 years that had been the case this late in a season. The postseason picture was so fuzzy that 10 AFC teams were still capable of finishing anywhere from the No. 1 playoff seed to out of the playoffs entirely.

But we have a handle on it, all of it, because we have a thorough understanding of the NFL's complex tie-breaking procedures, the laws by which the playoff universe is governed. We won't delve into them too deeply here because to explain the tie-breakers in their entirety would require three chalkboards, two spreadsheets and an overhead projector, and could possibly make your head explode. Here, for instance, is a section of the official wild-card tie-breaker rules covering a dead heat among three or more teams:

"When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth."

Does that clear it all up? Suffice it to say that if the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers tie for the final wild-card berth, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees may have to play Scrabble for the right to advance.

A week from now it will all be settled. The six playoff teams in each conference will have been decided, and we can sit back and enjoy the postseason. But after two weeks of playing out scenarios in our heads, we might need a couple of aspirin and a glass of water before we get to the chips and pretzels.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Phil Taylor writes about a Hot Button issue every Monday on CNNSI.com.

 

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