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Carolina won't be cautious
Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis spoke with CNNSI.com about the goings-on in the college basketball world this week: CNNSI.com: Let's start with the obvious, Duke vs. North Carolina Thursday night. Both teams are undefeated in the ACC. Both teams are ranked in the top five. Duke had been rolling over teams before Saturday night's squeaker at Maryland. What do the Tar Heels need to do to pull this off? Seth Davis: With Duke scoring 93 points a game, you'd assume that North Carolina would try to slow down the tempo. But I talked to Matt Doherty and it doesn't sound like that's going to be part of his game plan. Doherty pointed out to me that he does have some depth on his team and depth has not been Duke's strong suit so far this season. From Carolina's perspective, I see two keys. One, they are going to have to play very good defense like Maryland did on Saturday night. Doherty told me he hasn't been pleased with his team's defensive efforts the last two or three games. And two, the Tar Heels will also have to keep their turnovers at a minimum because Duke is so efficient at converting those turnovers at the other end, not just the fast break layups but the wide-open three pointers.
And the X factor in this game, as in so many big games, will be the referees. Watch the first four or five minutes of the game. If the officials are calling a tight game, then I think that will work to Duke's advantage. But if they are going to let the kids play, then North Carolina will benefit because they do have the better inside players. It's sure to be a very interesting and competitive game. CNNSI.com: Maryland nearly pulled off the upset over Duke last Saturday night. How can the Terps rebound from such a devastating loss? Davis: This is a veteran team. Maryland starts three juniors and a senior and it just seems to me that they should not have that much trouble bouncing back from this loss because for 39 minutes the Terps thoroughly outplayed Duke in a way that no other team has done this year. Maryland forced the Blue Devils to commit 22 turnovers and sophomore point guard Steve Blake had his best game of the season, outplaying Jason Williams up until the last two minutes before he fouled out. Maryland certainly has a lot to be encouraged by. But I talked with Gary Williams on Monday night and he admitted to me that he is not sure how his team will react. Maryland has a game at Virginia on Wednesday and it's going to be important for them to come out and play really well in that game. I expect Maryland to be just fine. CNNSI.com: Finally, it's almost February, and you can see the proverbial NCAA tournament bubble starting to take a little shape. Which bubble teams should we be keeping an eye on over the next few weeks? Davis: There are a few interesting teams that I'm going to be keeping an eye on. First of all, Connecticut has a very low RPI ranking at 72 and they have lost four games in a row heading in Tuesday night's game against St. John's; it is going to be very important for the Huskies to have a good month and play well in the Big East Tournament because it has been a very competitive league this season top to bottom. Out in the Big Ten, Minnesota is a very interesting team. There has been some confusion about this, but they are eligible for postseason play because their postseason ban was only one year. Minnesota is ranked 20th in the RPI and right now they are in a tie for seventh in the league. I think the Big Ten is going to get at least that many bids. In the Atlantic 10, Massachusetts, to me, has been one of the real surprises of the conference season, but before league play began, they were 2-9. So even though they are tied for first place, that league isn't going to help them much in terms of the computer rankings. They may still need to win that conference tournament to get that automatic bid, but they are certainly going to make it interesting if they keep playing well. Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers the college basketball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.
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