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Guide to the Madness
This is an exciting yet wistful time of year for us Hoopheads. Yes, March Madness is almost upon us, but that also means the season is nearly over and we'll all have to, you know, get a life. Last week, I could have sworn I heard the three ugliest words in the English language: pitchers and catchers. Say it ain't so. So before the excitement begins -- and ends -- I thought I'd weigh in with a few predictions on how the season's climax will unfold. Here, then, is my Guide to the Madness: Sure things and sleepers and busts, oh, my! SURE THINGS Or as Grant Wahl, the Cliff Clavin of cyberspace, would call them, the Magic Six. I absolutely, positively guarantee that your 2001 champion will come from the following group. (Not that I'm on any kind of limb here; these are the top six teams in both the AP and coaches' polls). Listed odds are for conversational purposes only. Please, no wagering. North Carolina (3:1). This the only team in the field with potential production from every position -- including point guard, where Ronald Curry has progressed much quicker than I anticipated. A possible Brendan Haywood disappearing act remains the most obvious Achilles' (Tar) Heel. Illinois (5:1). The Illini possess in abundance the three things you need most to win in March: defense, athleticism and guard play. Brian Cook and Frank Williams are still a little more up-and-down than I'd like, but lately they've been more up than down. Michigan State (7:1). Don't look now, but the Spartans are starting to get that swagger again. They don't have quite the mental toughness they had last year, but who does? Duke (10:1). This is still the one team no one wants to face, but the Blue Devils' offensive firepower masks their defensive deficiencies. They simply can't afford to miss shots against a good team. Iowa State (15:1). If it comes down to physical and mental toughness, the Cyclones should breeze their way through the field. Their suspect shooting is an even bigger liability on neutral floors and in domed arenas. Stanford (20:1). OK, G-Dub, they're on my list. I've been nitpicking at the Cardinal all season, but let's face it, all they do is win. Their lack of speed still troubles me, but they can match up with anyone up front. SLEEPERS Every year a team or two goes further than predicted. Here are the six most likely candidates: Butler. I've been on the Bulldogs bandwagon the last couple of weeks, and I'm not about to jump off now. This veteran group, which knocked off Wisconsin in Madison on Jan. 30, is still perturbed about losing to Florida at the OT buzzer in the first round of the NCAAs last year. Plus, center Scott Robisch is getting healthier. Oklahoma. The Sooners have a great blend of perimeter talent and strong rebounders, and they've steadily gotten better all season long. St. Joseph's. The Hawks still get dissed by national media types who insist on calling them St. Joseph's (Pa.) when they are the only St. Joseph's in Division I. Guards rule in March, and the Jameer Nelson-Marvin O'Connor combo is deadly. Syracuse. The Orangemen's zone defense will cause a lot of problems in the tournament because teams outside the Big East aren't used to playing against it. The 'Cuse isn't very deep, but I love teams that feature veterans. UCLA. I also like teams that get the most out of what they have. This is one of them. Wisconsin. The Badgers' style has proven to be effective in the tourney. Also, with four starters back from last year's Final Four team, they'll be used to the pressure. BUSTS If you're looking for horses to take you to the front of the office pool, don't saddle up these bad boys: Arizona. We've been waiting all season for this team to bust out. If it hasn't happened by now, it ain't gonna happen. Georgetown. The Hoyas are a case study in the dangers of having too much depth. Still too inconsistent to make a serious move. Kansas. The Jayhawks are just a wee bit soft for my taste, and they lack the kind of go-to scorer you need to get you out of a jam in the tournament. Tennessee. Don't even get me started. Wake Forest. The Deacs started fast but have been exposed in the last month. They simply can't win away from home. LEFTOVER HOOP THOUGHTS TO CLEANSE THE PALATE ... Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Hoop Thoughts will appear each week throughout the college basketball season.
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