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Taking a gamble
Posted: Tuesday March 13, 2001 4:59 PM
Thank goodness for gambling.
There, I said it. Sue me, curse me, ban me, flog me. My wails of pain will not drown out the obvious truth: The NCAA tournament owes its wild popularity to gambling, from the $10 office pool to the $10,000 parlay.
In this era of channel surfing and waning attention spans -- not to mention diminished TV ratings -- March Madness maintains its toehold on the national psyche because all of us hold a financial stake in what is about to happen. The action in Vegas this weekend will be second only to that for the Super Bowl. The most popular feature on this Web site will be the bracket predictions submitted by our staff of "experts." I will personally be entered in no fewer than three NCAA pools (including the one at the Sports Illustrated offices in New York), as well as a popular (and mildly deranged) competition called Moos March Madness, which will enable literally hundreds of entrants to place symbolic "bets" based on official point spreads. (Think Tony Soprano could learn a few things from Moos about how to run a bizniss? Fuhgeddaboudit.)
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This, of course, presents a conundrum for the NCAA, which has argued, rightly, that all this gambling is dangerous for the game because of the potential for point shaving. CBS' broadcast rights fees to the tournament provide the NCAA with over 90 percent of its annual revenues. So there's no denying that all this action is a big part of what makes this event such a valuable commodity.
Thus, I'll admit to being a little conflicted as I offer my Hoop Thoughts this week, tailored as they must be to all you bracket filler-outers. The games are always exciting, but so are the games within the games. And so, for better or worse, for richer or power, let the Madness begin.
EAST
While there is some truth to the theory that Duke is vulnerable if it doesn't shoot well, it's worth noting that the Blue Devils did not shoot high percentages in any of their wins in the ACC tournament. Duke operates on the theory that if you're going to have a subpar shooting night, you might as well do it from behind the 3-point line. The Blue Devils have more margin for error than people give them credit for, which is why I'm picking them to win the whole shebang.
Having said that, Duke drew the worst possible Sweet 16 matchup in UCLA. Not only do the Bruins have the perimeter defenders to lock up Duke's shooters, but they also have a tough-as-nails point guard in Earl Watson, who will not be the least bit intimidated about going up against Jason Williams.
Like everyone else, I was shocked that Boston College got a No. 3 seed. Why was the Big East so mistreated? And why so much respect for the SEC?
If you're looking for a sleeper team here, I'd stay away from Iowa. The Hawkeyes invested a lot of effort, emotional and physical, to win the Big Ten tournament. Even if Iowa gets by Creighton, which is no sure thing, I don't see any way the Hawkeyes can beat Kentucky.
WEST
Another seeding complaint to register here: St. Joseph's a 9? If we're punishing teams that won regular-season titles but stumbled in the league tournament, why is Iowa State a No. 2 seed? St. Joseph's deserved better than having to play Georgia Tech in the first round.
This region will provide a potential classic if Iowa State and Maryland meet in the Sweet 16. It's funny how everyone -- including yours truly -- is jumping on the Terps' bandwagon again after bailing en masse a few weeks back. As far as I can tell, the only person who stuck with Maryland throughout is my fiancée, Melissa, who, through no fault of her own, has watched more college basketball this season than anyone should have to. (Then again, I've watched more Ally McBeal than anyone should have to. So it's a wash.)
Of all the top seeds in the field, Stanford still has the most to prove. On the one hand, all the Cardinal have done this season is win. On the other hand, they've played exactly one ranked team outside their conference all year. I do predict, however, that if Stanford reaches the Final Four, it will be because Michael McDonald demonstrates he's a much better point guard than anyone gives him credit for.
If Georgia State does, in fact, play Maryland in a "Lefty Game," there will be a sad cloud hanging over the matchup, and its name is Len Bias. Bias is still the best college basketball player I've ever seen in person. He's also the reason I became a college basketball fan while growing up in Maryland.
SOUTH
If everyone and their grandmother is picking a team to win, doesn't that team cease to be a sleeper? As it is, I'll add my name to the list of people who like Gonzaga to make the Sweet 16. Virginia is not nearly as good a team away from University Hall, and everyone knows the Zags are better than a 12 seed.
Providence seems to be another hot pick right now. How can the second-best team in the Big East be a 10 seed? The Friars have the two things that bother North Carolina most: a great defensive point guard in John Linehan (believe me, Ronald Curry wants no part of him) and a 7-foot-2 center, in Karim Shabazz, who can stay even with Brendan Haywood. Then again, Carolina looked pretty bad heading into last year's tournament, and if memory serves the Heels did OK.
I strongly recommend against picking Michigan State to win it all, if only because of history. Over the last two decades, only Duke in '92 has repeated as champs, and unlike this edition of the Spartans that Duke team brought back its core players from the previous year.
Looking to take a chance? Try Texas. If the 'Horns can get by Temple, I think they match up great with injury-plagued Florida.
MIDWEST
After listing Arizona as one of my duds a few weeks back, I am now picking them to go all the way to the championship game. I figure if you make every possible prediction at some point during the season, you can always point back and say you called it right.
On the other hand, whomever Arizona faces in the second round will give the Wildcats fits. Butler, remember, played the 'Cats very tough in Tucson earlier in the year and the Bulldogs know how to impose their slow-it-down style against quicker teams. And if Arizona gets Wake Forest, the Wildcats may have to fit Loren Woods with a straitjacket.
Looking to take a chance (Part II)? Try Charlotte over Illinois. The 49ers have had all sorts of injury and maturity problems, but they seem to have ironed them out the last few weeks. Illinois, meanwhile, has been inconsistent even when it wins.
With all due respect to my buddy Joe Drape, the New York Times writer who picked Kansas to reach the final game, I have no faith in the Jayhawks in this tournament. They were already thin before they lost Luke Axtell, and they have neither the defensive toughness nor the perimeter shooting required to carry them to Minneapolis.
Bonus Midwest Hoop Thought: I still have no idea why Billy Packer was so fixated on Mike Davis' job security (and Steve Alford's potential as his replacement) during the Big Ten championship game. Davis' future at Indiana was sealed at IU even before the conference tournament, much less the final, began. It was ludicrous for Packer to suggest that the outcome of that one game would be the deciding factor.
Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Hoop Thoughts will appear each week throughout the college basketball season.
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