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Grand finale Expect Arizona, Duke to survive the Final Four
This is it, Hoopheads, the weekend we've all been looking forward to -- and dreading. Another glorious college basketball season is about to wind down and we couldn't have picked a better quartet of teams to help us face the final curtain. In preparation for Saturday's doubleheader, I conducted a Q&A with myself. (At first, I declined to grant me an interview, but after further prodding I acquiesced.) Herewith, then, are my Hoop Thoughts on the national semifinals. Check in again on Monday to read my primer on the championship game. ARIZONA VS. MICHIGAN STATE 1. Can the Spartans play up-tempo? The players will tell you they can -- what hooper doesn't love to run and shoot? -- but there's a reason Michigan State hasn't yet employed the fast-break style it ran so effectively against Florida in last year's championship game. For one thing, Charlie Bell is still not quite comfortable as a point guard. Secondly, the Spartans don't have anyone outside of Jason Richardson who can be counted on to do the right thing if they receive a pass in transition. Mike Chappell, Marcus Taylor and David Thomas all have the skills to finish and knock down open shots, but all three have battled inconsistency this season. The good news for Michigan State (and Bell) is that even though Arizona likes to run, the Wildcats do not force a whole lot of turnovers through ball pressure. The Spartans need to stay patient and fight the temptation to play at Arizona's pace. 2. Will the real Loren Woods stand up?
Woods is physically weak, he despises contact and he gets frustrated easily, all of which can prompt him into committing silly fouls. Certainly he is no match for Michigan State's bruisers up front, but he does have the height and wingspan to disrupt their ability to score. Woods can also create problems for the Spartans on offense, especially if he causes Hutson -- Michigan State's most important player -- to get into foul trouble. The important thing is for Woods to stay in this game, literally and figuratively. 3. Does Arizona have the Wright stuff? The key to this game will be Michael Wright, the only player on Arizona's roster who is as physically strong and mentally tough as Michigan State's big men. It's an automatic that the Spartans will win the rebounding war, but if Wright, who did not score a field goal against Illinois, can help minimize the opponent's prowess on the offensive glass, then the game will be decided by the guards. And there's no question that Arizona has the advantage at that position. Prediction: Tom Izzo and his players have not gotten enough credit for getting back to the Final Four. Not only did the Spartans lose their three most important players from last year's championship team, but they made it this far without their two prized freshmen playing the prominent roles many of us expected they would coming into the season. Having said that, Michigan State caught a huge break from the selection committee when North Carolina and Florida got the second and third seeds, respectively, in its region. The Spartans are due to be exposed by a team that's much better than any they have faced in a long, long time. Arizona wins the tempo war and runs away with the victory, 84-77. DUKE VS. MARYLAND 1. Can Duke play any better? Absolutely. First of all, the Blue Devils did not shoot the ball especially well in Philadelphia, particularly against UCLA. They also fell into a dangerous habit whereby the other players stood around and watched Shane Battier and Jason Williams do their thing. It was only when Chris Duhon knocked down a couple of threes in the second half that they were able to put away USC. And don't forget that Carlos Boozer is bound to be much more effective after having another week to heal and get into game shape. The conventional wisdom is that, because of its lack of depth and heavy reliance on the 3-pointer, Duke is in danger if it doesn't shoot well or gets into foul trouble. If nothing else, the last few weeks have demonstrated that this team is operating on a much bigger margin for error than previously believed. Pretty scary when you think about it. 2. Will Steve Blake be enough of a counterpoint? Blake is without question the most important player in this game. If Williams has one weakness -- and lord knows, he doesn't have many -- it's that he still hasn't completely mastered the nuances of quarterbacking a team. Williams' style is to attack, attack, attack, when sometimes it's better to pull the ball out and slow things down. Blake is more of a natural point guard than Williams is, and he has created more problems for Williams than any other guard in the country. Blake's potential for forcing Williams into making mistakes and getting into foul trouble is Maryland's best hope for victory. 3. Can Maryland overcome the "wow" factor? Duke has two players (Battier and Nate James) who have played in a Final Four and a coach who has made it to the season's final weekend eight previous times. That's a huge advantage over Maryland, which is playing in its first Final Four. If the Terps come out tight or overanxious, they might end up spotting Duke a lead from which they can't recover. Then again, Maryland is not burdened by expectations the way Duke is. If the Terps play loose, as if they have nothing to lose, that could give them an intangible edge. Prediction: Maryland is the one team Duke did not want to face in this tournament. The Terps bring confidence and familiarity that negate a lot of the advantages Duke usually carries into a game like this. Juan Dixon, who was overshadowed by Lonny Baxter's performance against Stanford in the West Regional final, remains Maryland's go-to guy. He and Blake seem to play their best against Duke and I expect them to do that again Saturday night. When the teams squared off the second time, in Cameron, Duke was in control of the game until Boozer broke his foot in the second half. Maryland may have still pulled off the comeback with Boozer in the lineup, but it would have been a lot harder. And though Matt Christensen, Reggie Love and Casey Sanders acquitted themselves well against Maryland during the ACC tournament, none of them came close to giving Duke the inside presence that Boozer does. The Blue Devils actually became a better team after Boozer got hurt, and now that he's back and getting healthier, they'll be better still. Another instant classic goes Duke's way, 81-78. Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Hoop Thoughts will appear each week throughout the college basketball season
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