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The skinny on all the upsets

Posted: Friday November 23, 2001 6:06 PM
Updated: Monday November 26, 2001 7:58 PM
  View the Seth Davis Insider Archive

Looks like Goliath picked the wrong week to give up smoking.

Rarely in recent memory have so many top teams gone down to defeat so early in the college basketball season. From Philly to L.A., from Chapel Hill to Lawrence, hoopheads across the nation are wondering whether the home team's surprising defeat is an aberrational blip or an indication that something is really wrong. The answer, as always, is: It depends. So to help you sift through the wreckage, here's my primer on which giants will rise from the sting of the slingshot, and which ones are truly slung.

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Sports Illustrated's college basketball insider Seth Davis talks about upset-happy programs like Gonzaga. Start
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Don't worry, be happy

Maryland (lost 71-67 to Arizona). Terps coach Gary Williams isn't happy unless he's unhappy, so being caught off guard by a surprisingly mature Arizona team isn't much cause for concern. This team is dominated by upperclassmen who have been through a lot worse. I expect the Terrapins to recover quickly.

Kansas (lost 93-91 to Ball State). All credit to Ball State, but the Jayhawks would not have lost the game if Nick Collison hadn't gone out with severe cramps. I am usually not partial to teams that feature a freshman point guard, but there is enough veteran talent so that KU doesn't have to depend too much on Aaron Miles. Everyone talks about Collison and Drew Gooden, but the make-or-break guy on this team will be Kirk Hinrich.

St. Joseph's (lost 68-67 to Eastern Washington). The Hawks found out right away just how difficult it is to play with a bull's-eye on their backs. With so many veterans on board, I'm guessing they've learned their lesson.

Kentucky (lost 64-52 to Western Kentucky). Again, an injury -- this one to point guard J.P. Blevins -- played a major role in this loss. Blevins is hardly a great player, but that position is the one weakness in the Wildcats' attack which needs to be shored up. They've got plenty of time -- and talent -- to do just that.

Be afraid, be very afraid

Florida (lost 75-71 to Arizona). It's one thing for Maryland to be caught off guard by Arizona, but what was the Gators' excuse? This is still a very talented team, but the guard situation is a little too dicey for my taste. Brett Nelson knows that if he's going to make it in the NBA it will have to be as a point guard, yet Billy Donovan has to play Nelson at the 2 spot often because his other point guard, Justin Hamilton, is not a very good shooter. And with Teddy Dupay gone for the season, the only other player on this team who can consistently knock down a 3-pointer is power forward Matt Bonner. In Donovan's Rick Pitino-style system, a lack of shooters is a major, major problem.

UCLA (lost 91-73 to Ball State). Three words: freshman point guard. Yes, Cedric Bozeman is a rare talent, but Dan Gadzuric's dearth of offensive post moves makes it even more important that the big man have a mature, seasoned point guard (like Earl Watson) to get him the ball. Bozeman is not going to be that guy. To wit, UCLA had 22 turnovers in the game; Ball State had three.

North Carolina (lost 77-69 to Hampton and 58-54 to Davidson). The Heels have no point guards, can't make 3-pointers and are horrible on defense. Besides that, they're in great shape.

Georgetown (lost 73-59 to Georgia). Every year, it seems, the Hoyas field a team that can do everything but make shots. In today's game, if you can't make 3s, you can't win big.

Other Hoop Thoughts ...

  • The preseason experiment with the jump-ball rule shows just how impractical the idea really is. Dick Vitale's one-man crusade against the possession arrow is based on a mathematically incorrect premise -- namely, that the arrow punishes the defense. The fact is, the arrow only punishes the defense 50 percent of the time. The rest of the time it rewards the defense. The same math applies to the jump ball. If a point guard ties up a center and they go to a jump ball, how is that rewarding the defense? Moving everyone to the center circle, lining up the players and throwing up the ball takes way too long. It also brings into play the possibility of an errant toss by the ref.

  • People who talk about Duke's need to replace Shane Battier's leadership are missing the boat. The Blue Devils have plenty of leadership. What it doesn't have -- not yet, anyway -- is a great defensive presence. Battier was vastly overrated as an on-the-ball defender, but he may have been the best help defender in the history of the game. Until Duke is able to establish a new defensive identity, it will be vulnerable.

  • Oh, and to answer your next question: Yes, Seton Hall is for real.

  • Until further notice, I hereby decree that the MAC has replaced Conference USA in the ranks of the power conferences.

  • If my buddy Grant Wahl needs some musical suggestions for his next road trip, my advice is to load up his car with a bunch of bootlegs from the greatest band of all time, The Radiators, from New Orleans, and listen to nothing else.

  • Attention newspaper editors and agate typists: There is only one St. Joseph's in Division I basketball, so there is no need to identify that school as St. Joseph's (Pa.). If you don't get it right this season, you never will. (And considering how many people still get this wrong, why would the school confuse everyone further by trying to get people to call it Saint Joseph's?)

  • Too bad Cincinnati guard Steve Logan doesn't play for a better team. He is tenacious, talented and much improved.

  • Covering college hoops for a living has spoiled me, but there are still a few players I'd pay to see. Oklahoma State's Maurice Baker is one of them.

  • I'm usually not one for ref bashing, but Frank Scagliotta's foul call on Iowa's Glen Worley on Wednesday night with the score tied and time expiring was one of the worst calls I've ever seen. Instead of going to overtime, as it should have, the game ended when Missouri's Clarence Gilbert made one of two free throws with 0.8 seconds on the clock.

    Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Hoop Thoughts will appear every week during the season.

     
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