Definition of sleeper

USC never answers bell against UNC-Wilmington

Me and my big mouth. For the past six weeks, I’ve been telling anyone who would listen (and many others who preferred not to) that USC was going to be the sleeper team of the NCAA tournament. Loved their speed. Loved their toughness. Loved, loved, LOVED their experience. When the brackets popped up on my TV last Sunday night and I saw a Duke-USC matchup looming, I just KNEW the Trojans would be the perfect foil for what was obviously a very vulnerable Blue Devils team.

So USC goes out in the first round, and here’s what I get: I’m sitting courtside at the Bi-Lo Center in Greenville, S.C., watching a Notre Dame-Charlotte game that was almost as scintillating as Lee Fowler’s interview with CBS last Sunday, and my cell phone rings. On the line -- on the air! -- is my favorite radio posse, The Sports Junkies, calling to bust my chops because I had told their many dozens of listeners to go with USC in their office pools. I get Bill Brill, a fellow Duke grad and the dean of the ACC sportswriters, tell me the headline on my next Web column should read " Seth Davis reports: Seth Davis is an idiot." (I also bought Bill breakfast because I bet him last spring that Jason Williams was turning pro, but that’s another story.) I got an obnoxious voice mail from my father (who shouldn’t talk -- he picked Gonzaga to go to the Final Four) and several e-mails from other Duke grads (including the best man at my wedding), all of whom were eager to pour salt in my very public wound. My wife, Melissa, said she’s not leaving me, but apparently our dog wants a trial separation.

I don’t know why I’m supposed to be right about all my bracket picks just because I’m supposed to be some sort of expert. (Did I mention I also had Florida and Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen?) So let me say this: Last year, on Selection Sunday, I nailed the Final Four, the Final Two and the Final One, and I took first place in the Sports Illustrated office pool. And you know what? I was guessing then, and I’m guessing now. You all know I’m right, because you’re huge college basketball fans and you study all the stats and trends, yet every year you lose the pool to the person in accounting who made picks based on team uniform colors.

So bear that in mind as you scroll through my regional capsules. As for my USC pick, I may not look like The Amazing Kreskin again this year, but all is not lost. At the very least, I’m on O.J. Simpson’s good side.

EAST
Biggest surprise: OK, so I also picked Valpo over Kentucky, but I was just trying to be daring. Still, I didn’t think UK would be so focused given the turmoil the program has been through this season. Tubby Smith’s teams do well in big games, so the further the Wildcats advance, the better they will become.

I told you so: Bob Knight did a phenomenal job at Texas Tech this season, but if you check out their schedule, you’ll see that the vast majority of their 23 wins came against suspect opponents. Southern Illinois, by contrast, is a battle-tested mid-major that was playing a virtual home game in Chicago.

Predictions (and guesses): Maryland coasts past Wisconsin, while Kentucky struggles with Tulsa, but survives. Southern Illinois outruns and outguns a very athletic Georgia team and UConn handles N.C. State with surprising ease.

Player to watch: N.C. State guard Anthony Grundy’s numbers measure up favorably against those of any guard in the country. UConn needs to put the clamps on him early and often.

Tip-in: If the committee were smart enough to let in just four Big East teams, we would have had a much better game with Wisconsin taking on Butler or Bowling Green instead of St. John's.

SOUTH
Biggest surprise: Gotta be my Trojans going down. They proved they’re good by erasing a 19-point deficit in the second half, but if you’re a veteran team, there’s no excuse for not being prepared to play an NCAA tournament game, even if your opponent has a hyphen.

I told you so: Kent State was a No. 10 seed and Oklahoma State was a No. 7, yet the Vegas oddsmakers had the Golden Flashes favored. Maybe we should ask the bookies to seed the tournament.

Predictions (and guesses): Kent State continues to roll over the Tide, while Duke and Indiana move on comfortably. My newfound West Coast bias makes Cal a tempting pick, but I’ve gotta go with Pitt playing in its hometown.

Player to watch: Don’t look now, but Carlos Boozer has been Duke’s best and most consistent player the last month. He’s making everyone else that much harder to guard.

Tip-in: Do the folks in Bloomington understand that Mike Davis is actually a pretty darn good coach?

MIDWEST
Biggest first-round surprise: Creighton obviously pulled off a stunner in upending Florida, but I’m actually more surprised Wake Forest dispatched Pepperdine so easily. Wake has gotten spotty guard play for most of the season, but mad props go to Craig Dawson for shooting the Deacs into the next round.

I told you so: Boston College did not belong in the tournament, and after playing a weak non-conference schedule this season the Eagles were certainly not going to beat a rough-and-tumble Texas team in Dallas.

Predictions (and guesses): All you folks who picked Kansas to win the whole thing ought to be very nervous with Kirk Hinrich hobbling and a Stanford team looming that has two very dangerous players in Curtis Borchardt and Casey Jacobsen. Still, the Cardinal is at a major disadvantage on the perimeter even if Hinrich doesn’t play, and it says here KU will move on, along with Illinois, Texas and an Oregon squad that is better than you think.

Player to watch: Illinois is a much different team when Cory Bradford is hitting his shots.

Tip-in: Billy Donovan was absolutely right in arguing that Creighton deserved a technical after its players ran on the court following the game-winning bucket, but there’s just no way a referee is going to make that call in that situation.

WEST
Biggest first-round surprise: It’s not that surprising that Wyoming could beat Gonzaga, but I’m shocked that both Dan Dickau and Blake Stepp could shoot so poorly in the same game. Guess it’s a little harder to play the role of Goliath than David sometimes.

I told you so: There’s no way that Miami is a better team than Missouri, yet for some reason the Hurricanes were seeded seven spots higher. I’m sure you didn’t fall for that.

Predictions (and guesses): Mizzou marches on (now THAT one I nailed) against a nice Ohio State team with inferior talent. Arizona and Oklahoma also advance. Predicting anything about UCLA is always dangerous in March, especially in light of the way they walloped Ole Miss, but the Bruins have played soft all year and will get muscled out of the tourney by Cincinnati.

Player to watch: Hollis Price is Oklahoma’s best player and team leader.

Tip-in: As good as Cincinnati is, the Bearcats don’t have as much talent as most people believe. A great game by UCLA or Missouri would do them in.

Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers the college basketball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

 

Related information
Multimedia
Visit Video Plus for the latest audio and video
Search our site	Watch CNN/SI 24 hours a day
	Sports Illustrated and CNN have combined to form a 24 hour sports news and information channel. To receive CNN/SI at your home call your cable operator or DirecTV.