There's no need to reseed

ABOARD DELTA FLIGHT 266, BOUND FOR ATLANTA -- Is it possible to be burned out and rejuvenated at the same time? That's how I always seem to feel when this week of the year rolls around. We all know the Final Four is the best weekend in sports, which is why I begin today by arguing against an idea you'll be hearing often this week, one that, if implemented, would rob this event of much of its intrinsic charm.

I am talking about the idea of rearranging the matchups prior to the Final Four so the two highest seeds wouldn't be able to meet until Monday night. You could see this train gather steam once Duke lost while Kansas and Maryland played on. As the advocates of this idea will ask often in the coming days, why have Maryland and Kansas meet in the semifinals when they could play for the title?

Well, I'll give you two reasons. First of all, Kansas and Maryland would first have to win on Saturday, and that is no guarantee. After all, Oklahoma did beat both of these schools this season. Second, the great appeal of the NCAA tournament lies in its single-elimination format, where David can, and often does, slay Goliath before our very eyes. When Creighton sank Florida and Indiana edged out Duke, there was no postgame speculation over how the favorites would rebound in Game 2. They were one-and-done. And think of this: If the NCAA reseeded the teams each year before the Final Four, we might never have seen N.C. State coach Jim Valvano running across The Pit in 1983 looking for someone to hug, or watched little Villanova knock off mighty Georgetown in '85.

With their unfair scheduling tactics, nefarious RPI and insulting play-in game, the game's powerbrokers are already doing everything they can to stomp on the Davids as if they were cockroaches scurrying across the kitchen floor. The last thing we need to do is give Goliath a bigger shoe. So let's stop this snowball before it gets rolling, and let's get onto the games.

Oklahoma vs. Indiana

The Hoosiers knocked off Duke by pounding it inside to Jared Jeffries and killing the Blue Devils on the glass. They blew by Kent State by shooting at a phenomenal clip from 3-point range. In Oklahoma, however, Indiana is presented with a considerably more formidable challenge on both counts. I suspect it has run out of miracles.

Even under normal circumstances, it would be reasonable to assume the Hoosiers' shooting will come back to earth. This is even more likely considering outside shooters often have trouble converting long-range attempts in a dome, where the depth perception and sight lines are much different than what they've experienced all season. Then there's Tom Coverdale's tender ankle, which, if it doesn't keep him out of the game entirely, will certainly limit his effectiveness as a shooter, floor leader and perimeter defender.

Of course, Indiana will have the best player on the floor in Jeffries, but Oklahoma has the frontline players, especially explosive shot blocker Jabahri Brown, that both Duke and Kent State lacked. The Sooners also have superior quickness and strength on the perimeter. IU's best hope is to shoot the lights out again, but if it fails to do that, it can only win by out-toughing Oklahoma. And nobody out-toughs Oklahoma.

Prediction: Oklahoma 70, Indiana 58

Kansas vs. Maryland

Whoa, nellie. I can't imagine two teams being more evenly matched, which means the game will turn on the usual variables -- outside shooting, turnovers, foul trouble and free throws. Predicting what will happen is more guesswork than analysis, but here goes.

From Maryland's standpoint, the most important thing is, of course, defending Drew Gooden. That is a near-impossible task, but in Chris Wilcox the Terps have a rare talent with the size and agility to pull it off. If Wilcox gets in foul trouble (which I'm sure he will), Maryland can still switch Lonny Baxter on Gooden and bring Tahj Holden and Ryan Randle off the bench. So whatever happens, Gooden can expect to see big bodies swarming him all night.

Priority No. 2 -- actually, it's more like 1A -- is stopping Kirk Hinrich. Again, easier said than done, but if anyone can do it it'll be Byron Mouton, a fifth-year senior and first-rate Glue Guy. Mouton's task will be made easier if Hinrich's sprained ankle is still bothering him. As for style, both teams prefer an uptempo game -- you do know that Kansas led the nation in scoring this season, right? -- but I think it would behoove Maryland to control the tempo and not let the game become too much of a track meet.

Which brings us to the great difference-maker: point guard. And the advantage there goes to Maryland. Kansas' Aaron Miles is a nice player, but he's also a freshman who has never played on anything approaching this big a stage. Steve Blake, on the other hand, is a three-year starter who has already played in a Final Four. He also had the chutzpah to insist to his coach last Sunday that he should take the big shot against Connecticut, even though he hadn't scored a point the entire game. I like Blake's toughness, I love his character, and he's the main reason why, in this clash of the heavyweights, I like Maryland to be the last team standing.

Prediction (OK, it's a guess): Maryland 88, Kansas 83.

Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

 

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