Unpredictable and inexplicable

Indiana's run exemplifies the tournament's charm

How can so many smart people be so wrong so often? That was my thought as I walked off the Georgia Dome floor Saturday night following Indiana's 73-64 win over Oklahoma. The Hoosiers were supposed to be too slow, too thin and too starry-eyed to pull off the upset. Well, someone forgot to tell Indiana those things, and now all sports fans -- not just hoopheads like us -- can be grateful for the compelling drama that will unfurl in the final game of yet another glorious NCAA tournament.

I'm hoping that all the fuddy-duddies (including a few of my colleagues at this very Web site) who wanted to re-seed these teams before the Final Four are now re-seeing the light. Indiana playing for the championship game is a far more enticing storyline than Maryland and Kansas duking it out. Let us all please remember: The unique charm in the NCAA tournament lies in its longshot possibilities. There are no second chances, no Game 2s. And no matter how lopsided a matchup looks on paper, things still get decided on the court, not in some computer. (See football, college.) Best of all, the three-week buildup allows folks with a passing interest in the game to grow familiar with the characters who act out the final drama. Most of America didn't know squat about these Indiana Hoosiers two weeks ago, but now water coolers everywhere are buzzing with chatter of Jared Jeffries' grace, Dane Fife's grit, Tom Coverdale's ankle and Mike Davis' humility.

Still, as much as I admire what Indiana has done, you won't find me jumping on its bandwagon at this late stage. I still believe Maryland will win the championship, but only a fool would try to argue that it will be a cakewalk. This title will most definitely have to be earned.

I can tell you this, though, I'm through underestimating Fife's defensive quickness after watching him harass Hollis Price into a nightmarish 1-for-11 shooting night on Saturday. In Maryland guard Juan Dixon, Fife will be defending a player similar to Price, both in physique and style. Somehow, though, I'm guessing Dixon will do a better job handling Fife's aggressiveness, if only because Dixon is surrounded by better players than Price was. As smart as Price is, Dixon may be the smartest player I've ever seen, and it says here he'll bait Fife into early foul trouble.

It would be easy to dismiss Jeffrey Newton's season-high 19 points as a fluke, but at this stage of the tournament there is no such thing. Newton's production resulted from the Sooners' efforts to lock down Jeffries, who scored just eight points, but was still the most dominant player on the floor. If the Terps neglect Newton in a similar fashion, he'll score some more. Once again, however, there's a difference. Maryland's quartet of bigs is better than Oklahoma's frontcourt players, and if those guys can outplay Kansas' front line, even with Lonny Baxter in foul trouble, they should be able to handle Indiana's trio of Jeffries, Newton and Jarrad Odle. I expect Maryland coach Gary Williams will make it a point to get the ball in Baxter's hands early and often to get him into the flow of the game.

Finally, there's the all-important point guard position. Three weeks ago, when I picked Maryland to win the tournament, I cited Steve Blake as the main reason. Blake, however, has had a miserable few weeks, save for the late 3-pointer he buried to stave off UConn in the regional final. That Maryland could beat Kansas so convincingly with Blake in a funk and Baxter in foul trouble speaks to the Terps' incredible resiliency. Call it a hunch, but I think Blake is due for a big game going against a courageous but still-hobbling Coverdale.

As much as I enjoy covering the NCAA tournament, I'm always a little bummed when championship Monday rolls around, because it means another season is coming to an end. It will be particularly hard to say goodbye to these Indiana Hoosiers, who have reminded us once again that a team can defy the predictions as long as its players believe in themselves and each other. Maryland may end up winning the game, but Mike Davis and his players won't need a scoreboard Monday night to tell them whether they are winners. In my view, they've already won.

Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

 

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