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Twenty questions They might not admit it, but coaches dwell on weaknessesPosted: Tuesday November 12, 2002 9:24 PM
I’ve read through all the preseason magazines and seen all the special preview sections. I’ve heard all the coaches at all the conference media days say how optimistic they are about what the next few months will bring. Sunny forecasts are in vogue this time of year, when everyone has a bagel in the loss column, but I’ve got a secret for you all: These guys are worried. All of them. The fact is, every coach is far more concerned with his team’s weaknesses than he is optimistic about its strengths. They won’t say that publicly, of course, but fortunately I’m here to cut through the palaver about half-full glasses and play a little game of 20 Questions to let you know what the coaches are really thinking. These are all from teams (listed alphabetically) that have designs on playing deep into the postseason. For that to happen, however, they’ll first have to come up with answers. 1. Alabama: Who’s No. 3? We know Maurice Williams will be one of the best point guards in the country, and center Erwin Dudley is a load to handle on the block. But when a team needs an important basket, it’s hard to get one from either of those positions, especially since the Tide will probably face a lot of zone this year. Thus, Alabama will need a consistent third option, but neither of the two main candidates, Terrance Meade nor Kennedy Winston, has shown he can be that third scoring option. 2. Arizona: Can you have that thing if you ain’t got that swing? Look at the Wildcats’ roster: They have a bunch of short combo guards and a handful of powerful big men. So where’s the tweener? You might say Luke Walton, but he’s more of a point-power forward, and he’ll never make anyone’s all-defensive team. The only true swingman on the team is Andre Iguodala, and he’s a freshman. If 'Zona runs into a cold-shooting night, it has to go to Plan B -- defensive pressure and dribble-drives. Without a proven swingman to execute it, that plan doesn’t look so hot. 3. Connecticut: What will Taliek Brown know, and when will he know it? I’ve been a defender of Brown’s because I think fans are too fixated on his inability to shoot. But you have to wonder if Brown will be more inclined to look for scoring opportunities this year in an effort to impress NBA scouts. If he does, that will hurt the Huskies’ chances of winning the Big East (not to mention Brown’s pro future). If Brown accepts his role as the third or fourth scoring option and continues to provide stellar leadership at both ends of the floor, then he could very well find himself playing in Atlanta next April. 4. Duke: Whither the star?
Here’s the thing about Chris Duhon: He’s a wonderful on-court maestro, but
he’s not much of an explosive penetrator. That means Duke will have to score
from the other positions. The Blue Devils have plenty of candidates -- Daniel
Ewing, Dahntay Jones, 5. Florida: Softball, anyone? You can have all the talent in the world -- and Florida does -- but it won’t do you a lick of good in today’s game if you don’t have toughness. The Gators were already suspect in that department last year, and now that they’ve lost Udonis Haslem, they’ll be even more deficient. They’d better shore up real quick, because if other teams in the SEC sense they’re soft, the Gators are going to get knocked back early and often. 6. Georgia: Smallball, anyone? I’m aware that very few teams have quality big men anymore, but don’t you need at least one? The Dawgs don’t have any players taller than 6-foot-8, and their best big player, Jonas Hayes, doesn’t exactly evoke comparisons to Bill Russell. Georgia will beat its share of teams with quickness, but only because it has to. 7. Gonzaga: Aren’t things inside-out? Note for all you future bracket-filler-outers: Go with the guards. Gonzaga might have one of the best frontlines in the country with Zach Gourde, Ronny Turiaf and Cory Violette, but it’s a major red flag when your best players are your bigs. Junior point guard Blake Stepp is no Dan Dickau (though he’s not that far off when he’s healthy), which makes me think that the Zags won’t truly be dangerous until next year, when athletic transfer Errol Knight becomes eligible. 8. Kansas: Where’s the bench? I happen to think depth is overrated in most cases and especially in Lawrence, where Roy Williams has too often been overly concerned with spreading out the minutes. But the Jayhawks have literally NO bench right now, especially since highly regarded juco transfer Jeff Graves has had trouble getting into shape. Kansas’ starting five is as good as they come, but unless some reserves emerge they will be frighteningly susceptible to injury and foul trouble. 9. Kentucky: Will the real Keith Bogans please stand up? Bogans was a classic example last season of how pro aspirations can kill a college career. He never recovered from the blow to his confidence he sustained during his poor performance at the NBA’s predraft showcase in Chicago. Then, in an attempt to prove wrong the scouts who said he couldn’t shoot, he ended up proving them right. If he understands that defense, strength and the ability to help your team win are tickets to a paycheck -- check out Greg Buckner with the Sixers as Exhibit A -- then Kentucky, and Bogans, will be just fine. 10. Marquette: Is Travis Diener ready to run the show? We all know Dwyane Wade is a future pro, and I expect Mississippi State transfer Rob Jackson will have a huge impact. But the biggest reason Marquette went 26-7 and made the NCAA Tournament last year was because of the steady leadership and toughness provided by diminutive point guard Cordell Henry. Now 6-foot sophomore Diener steps into that role, and while Diener has proven himself to be a terrific shooter, that’s not the primary obligation of a point guard. 11. Maryland: Will Steve Blake be the same player without a strong supporting cast? Blake was the perfect point guard for last year’s team. He was tough (remember the late 3 he hit in the regional final against UConn?), unflappable, and most of all, he knew to get the ball into the hands of Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter. Now that Blake’s running mates feature Drew Nicholas, Tahj Holden and a bunch of freshmen, he will have to score more, and he has yet to prove he can do that consistently. 12. Michigan State: Will Kelvin Torbert boom or bust? It might seem that the point guard position is a bigger question for the Spartans right now after Marcus Taylor's departure, but if Taylor was so good, why didn’t he get drafted before the 51st pick? Chris Hill will be a solid replacement -- more probably, an improvement -- so that leaves us wondering whether Torbert, a 6-4 sophomore, has the game to match his NBA body. If Torbert sheds the confusion and diffidence that characterized his play last year, he’ll be one of the best players in the Big Ten. If he doesn’t, the Spartans have no chance to win the league. 13. Mississippi State: What’s up with Mario Austin? The 6-9 junior is quite a specimen, and he wisely returned to school after declaring himself eligible last spring for the NBA draft. But now comes word that Austin was held out of the school’s first exhibition game this season for reasons not yet disclosed and that there’s no timetable yet on his return. Even with Austin in the lineup, you have to wonder if he’ll be more concerned with how the team’s doing or impressing NBA scouts. 14. Oklahoma: Who scores up front? The Sooners might have the best perimeter in the country, but the reason they made the Final Four last year was because senior power forward Aaron McGhee, who could both split traps on the block and knock down 3-pointers, hoisted them onto his broad shoulders and took them there. Jabahri Brown, a 6-10 junior, is mostly a defensive guy, while 6-8 Kevin Bookout is a freshman. One of those guys needs to do enough inside to keep defenses honest. 15. Pittsburgh: Just how heavy is the crown? Sure, all five starters are back from last year’s Big East regular-season championship team, but the Panthers’ days of sneaking up on people are long gone. Not only have these players never lived through this kind of hype, but the program hasn’t dealt with it for a long time, either. The Panthers can say they’re ready all they want, but until they actually go through it, there’s no way to prepare for the kind of intensity they’ll see from opponents (and their fans) night after night. 16 Texas: What’s the big deal? Yes, Texas was a nice team last year, but does "Sweet 16" plus "Five starters returning" really warrant a preseason No. 4 ranking? (Actually, considering the Longhorns’ first-round opponent in the NCAA tournament was Boston College, which had no business getting a bid, that Sweet 16 appearance should come with an asterisk.) Of course, I love T.J. Ford, but Texas is a mite small up front, which will enable defenses to overplay the point guard without worrying about the bigs beating them. This would be less of a concern if 6-8 freshman Brad Buckman is ready for prime time, but the transition from high school to college is usually toughest on big players. 17. Villanova: Can you win with freshmen? The answer, as always, is: It depends. You can win by relying on freshmen, but if freshmen are your most important players, that’s a recipe for disaster. Freshmen pose two problems: They’re not ready to carry a team, and they take away time from veterans. Keeping Gary Buchanan and Ricky Wright happy is going to be just as important for Jay Wright as the need to keep freshmen Randy Foye, Jason Fraser and Allan Ray happy. 18. Virginia: Have the Cavs learned from the past, or will they repeat it? This was the most maddening team in the country last year, losing 10 of its last 13 games and failing to make the NCAA Tournament. The Cavs will once again have some intriguing talent, with two transfers, Todd Billet and Nick Vander Laan, playing prominent roles. But if they don’t foster good chemistry and commit themselves to playing tough defense, they won’t be worth the paper they look so good on. 19. Western Kentucky: Will Chris Marcus be a pillar or an anchor? It’s rare that a player has generated so much excitement without much accomplishment, but to be fair that’s not really Marcus’ fault. But the fact is, Marcus played in fewer than half of the Hilltoppers’ games last year because he was hurt, and the team still went 28-4. If Marcus is healthy, Western Kentucky is a Final Four -- yes, Final Four -- contender. Even if he’s not, the Hilltoppers are still a top-20 team and surefire NCAA participant. But if Marcus is being shuffled in and out of the lineup at various levels of effectiveness, it could be a major disruption. 20. Xavier: Will the Musketeers be tournament tested come March? Coach Thad Matta, unlike many of his wimpy peers, has put together a tough non-conference slate that includes the preseason NIT, Cincinnati, Mississippi State and Alabama. But the Atlantic 10 will once again be a soft league, and that kind of an easy road is not the best way to prepare for the NCAA Tournament. The only way to learn how to win tough, close games is to be in them. Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. |
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