What's Bruin at UCLA?

If it's December, Steve Lavin must be on the hot seat

Looks like the Westwood circus got started a little early this season.

Ever since UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero fired football coach Bob Toledo last week, everyone in Los Angeles has been reading tea leaves in an effort to discern what that decision will mean for Steve Lavin. It doesn't help that his team is off to one of its patented slow starts -- the Bruins are 2-2, and that doesn't count the two exhibition games they lost before blowing the season opener at home against lowly San Diego -- but Lavin can't help but feel that he has heard all this noise before. "It's like that movie Groundhog Day," he says. "Every year, it seems like the same thing happens. Even the guys in the coffee shop I go to are asking me, 'Are you next?'"

So, then, what do the tea leaves tell us? Well, in the first place, we should know better than to issue a verdict on a Lavin team this early in the season. His record is 10-10 in November -- admittedly, that's atrocious -- but he has still made it to five Sweet 16s (and one Elite Eight) during his first six seasons in Westwood. I don't believe in judging any coach based on how he does in any single month, but if we're going to pick a month to judge him by, it's sure as heck isn't going to be November. It's going to be March.

Second, people seem to be assuming that Lavin is on shaky ground because the school brought in a new A.D. (Guerrero) to replace Pete Dalis, who hired Lavin, but that's not the case. Dalis originally gave Lavin the job on an interim basis after firing Jim Harrick, but Lavin forced Dalis to make him permanent by taking the Bruins to the Elite Eight. Moreover, Dalis was a trigger-happy kind of guy. He fired Larry Farmer and Walt Hazzard before dumping Harrick, and two years ago he tried to secretly replace Lavin with Rick Pitino. Dalis bungled the situation further by telling Lavin to his face that he had never contacted Pitino, then admitting to the media that he had.

Thus, it's not hard to read between the lines when Lavin says of his new boss, "He has been a breath of fresh air for the whole athletic department. It's nice to work with someone who is a supporter of your program and wants you to be successful."

Of course, Guerrero could tamp down the circus by giving Lavin a strong public word of support, but the A.D. will not comment on the coach's situation, even though he was asked about it during the press conference announcing Toledo's firing. (Guerrero also declined to comment for this column.) Still, why assume that because Guerrero dumped his football coach, he's looking to ax Lavin as well? If anything, the A.D. may be even more reluctant to fire Lavin because it would mean shaking up both revenue programs -- in his first year on the job.

Lavin knows that if Guerrero were to fire him, the A.D. would not face public outcry -- he certainly hasn't dealt with one one for canning Toledo -- so Lavin better be sure his club improves throughout the season. On that front, Lavin likes what he sees in the tea leaves. His bench is getting deeper -- sophomore forward Andre Patterson just regained his eligibility; 6-foot-6 senior Mercedes Lewis, an NFL prospect at tight end, will join the basketball squad soon; and 7-foot freshman center Michael Fey has shown potential in the post. Ultimately, the team's fate will hinge on the progress of sophomore point guard Cedric Bozeman, who is off to a spotty start (37.1 percent shooting, only seven free throws all season). Lavin, however, believes Bozeman will get better, and quickly. "Don't forget that Earl Watson was booed off the court in Pauley Pavilion when he was a sophomore, and now he's in the NBA," Lavin says. "I really like Cedric's poise and intelligence. People say this team is bad, but I think it's a potential monster."

Oh, it's a monster, all right, one that could very well devour the coach when the season is over. Before we start assuming that will happen, however, it helps to remember that Lavin has been through this circus many times before. Last time I checked, he's still the ringmaster.

OTHER HOOP THOUGHTS