A bold look at 2003

Even if you haven't seen the movie About Schmidt, you no doubt have heard about the flick's most memorable moment, when Kathy Bates strips nude before stepping into a hot tub with Jack Nicholson. When I saw the flick, at the moment that the, uh, full-figured Bates shed her robe, everyone in the movie theater applauded. There's a lesson to be learned there, which all of us would do well to heed in 2003: Be bold. Be very bold. Especially when in pursuit of the naked truth.

With that lesson, and the image of a very naked Kathy Bates, fresh in my mind, I, your fearless forecaster, am prepared to usher in the new year by letting it all hang out -- figuratively speaking, that is. In college hoops parlance, New Year's means a New Season, when conference play gets rolling as a lead-in to March Madness. And so, fat rolls and all, I herewith offer my predictions on how the college hoops season will play out between now and April 7. Any similarity between these prognostications and the events that actually follow are strictly coincidental.

My, it's chilly in here. The envelopes, please ...

Your 2002-03 national champion: Arizona. All right, so I'm not going out on much of a limb here, but I'm even more convinced now than I was at the beginning of the season. It's not just what I've seen from the Wildcats, it's what I haven't seen from everyone else. Jason Gardner's inconsistent shooting scares me, but no other team comes close to matching Arizona's combination of guard play, inside power, depth and experience. Just send the trophy to Tucson now.

Three more for the Final Four: We all jumped off the Kansas bandwagon pretty quickly, but it will fill up again soon enough as it rides into New Orleans. The Jayhawks bench is coming around, and Aaron Miles is settling into his role as floor leader (a euphemism for non-shooter). The other two slots are up in the air, but I'm going with Notre Dame and Texas, where the nation's two best point guards, Chris Thomas and T.J. Ford, will be the determining factors.

Sleepers creepers: In the unlikely event that any of my Final Four selections falter, replacements will come from my next four: Connecticut (speed kills in the NCAA tournament, and the Huskies have experience to boot), Marquette (Dwyane Wade is that good), Creighton (best chance in years for mid-majors to break through the glass ceiling) and Mississippi State (best inside-outside combo in SEC).

Early exits: Don't try to ride these teams to the office-pool title: Illinois (freshmen tend to play like freshmen in the NCAA tournament, and the Illini start three of them), Florida (ditto for Anthony Roberson and Matt Walsh), Kentucky (Wildcats go cold from outside too easily) and Xavier (too small inside, not enough punch from the point-guard spot).

Hardship underclassmen: The following non-seniors will be in the NBA draft next June: Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse; Mario Austin, Mississippi State; Chris Duhon, Duke; T.J. Ford, Texas; Jarvis Hayes, Georgia; Chris Thomas, Notre Dame; Dijon Thompson, UCLA; Dwyane Wade, Marquette.

Returning underclassmen: The following non-seniors will consider entering the NBA draft next June, but assuming they're smart, they'll be back: Julius Hodge, N.C. State; Luke Jackson, Oregon; Rashad McCants, North Carolina; Emeka Okafor, Connecticut (Okafor is actually good enough to turn pro, but I think he'll come back for academic reasons); Rickey Paulding, Missouri; Rick Rickert, Minnesota; Luke Ridnour, Oregon; Wayne Simien, Kansas; Maurice Williams, Alabama; Bracey Wright, Indiana.

As for the next two months, here's how each major conference will play out:

Atlantic 10: Xavier will get a tougher-than-expected challenge from Saint Joseph's and Temple. The Musketeers will win the regular-season title but not the A-10 tournament, if only because their NCAA bid will have been secured long before. Temple will advance the furthest of the three in the Big Dance.

ACC: North Carolina might have mounted a challenge to Duke, but thanks to Sean May's broken ankle, it says here the Tar Heels will miss the NCAA tournament. Duke is still the class of the league, but Virginia will be the surprise winner of the ACC tournament.

Big Ten: Only three teams are worth following: Illinois, Indiana and Michigan State. The league race is a crapshoot -- what the heck, I'll go with the Spartans -- but the Hoosiers will be the best NCAA tourney team.

Big 12: Kansas edges Texas for the regular-season title, but I predict Texas Tech will win the league tournament, which will mean more to the Red Raiders than to the two favorites. Oklahoma will improve the most between now and the NCAAs, especially once DeAngelo Alexander starts to blossom.

Big East: Again, a three-horse race, this one between Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. So I'll divvy up the picks: Pitt wins the regular season, UConn wins the conference tourney and Notre Dame makes the Final Four. In a league that's deeper than anticipated, it says here that Georgetown, with its laughably weak nonconference schedule, will have its bubble burst on Selection Sunday.

Conference USA: Thanks to the emergence of Louisville and Memphis, this league is looking at its best season ever. Marquette is still the cream of the crop, but I like the 'Ville to sneak up and win the conference tourney.

Pac-10: Arizona coasts on the West Coast -- regular season, conference tournament, national championship. Oregon is a solid No. 2, but I like Arizona State as a sleeper NCAA tournament team. That will be the only drama during a listless regular season that might as well be renamed "The Steve Lavin Farewell Tour."

SEC: Once again, this will be the most entertaining league in the country. Mississippi State is for real, and as an ascending program it has something to prove. Let's hand the Bulldogs the regular season and the league tourney. The wild card is Florida, which should get Christian Drejer back soon and can't win the league unless he plays well right away. Don't be surprised if the SEC gets eight NCAA bids.

Happy New Year, everyone. May I put my robe back on now?

Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine. Hoop Thoughts will appears every Tuesday during the regular season on CNNSI.com.

 

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