An early look at Steve Lavin's potential successor
Posted: Tuesday January 14, 2003 11:58 AM
Since it's no longer a question of ifSteve Lavin will leave UCLA, but when -- and reports out of Los Angeles suggest he may resign as soon as this week -- I figured we might as well start doping out the potential replacements. Sure, this exercise is a little insensitive considering Lavin's body isn't cold yet, but, hey, this is Hollywood, where everyone is always in search of the Next Big Thing. Keep in mind that UCLA is notoriously cheap when it comes to salaries, and buying out Lavin will cost the school upward of $1.6 million. That said, here's how I handicap the field:
Ben Howland 3:1. Howland satisfies two important criteria: He has West Coast roots (he grew up in Santa Barbara, spent 11 years as an assistant at UC-Santa Barbara, and was head coach at Northern Arizona for five years), plus he's just long enough in the tooth to make people forget that Lavin was hired at the age of 31 with no prior college head-coaching experience.
Paul Westphal 7:1. How ironic would it be to have a USC grad coaching UCLA and a UCLA grad at USC? Now in his second season at Pepperdine, Westphal is an L.A. native with extensive NBA experience, which is an invaluable asset in recruiting. Plus, UCLA wouldn't have to pay for any moving costs.
Kelvin Sampson 9:1. Like most elite coaches, Sampson would have to accept a pay cut to come to UCLA, but he has taken Oklahoma about as far as it can go. If he won't leave Norman for this job, he'll never leave.
Tim Floyd 10:1. I don't know if UCLA is smart enough to hire Floyd, but he'd be an inspired choice. If Floyd could build an elite program in Ames, Iowa, imagine what he could do in L.A. Of course, the money won't nearly match what Floyd made as coach of the Chicago Bulls, but at least he wouldn't have to work for Jerry Krause.
Quin Snyder 12:1. He has the Duke pedigree and has proven at Missouri that he can build a program. His biggest problem is that his sharp suits and boyish good looks might remind people too much of Lavin.
Mark Few 15:1. One of the few really good coaches out there UCLA can afford. But is he flashy enough for Tinseltown?
Pat Douglass 18:1. Douglass is a hot coach, having led UC-Irvine to its best two-year stretch ever. Douglass also won three Division II titles at Cal State-Bakersfield. He could do the job at UCLA, but let's face it, he wouldn't be the sexiest hire.
Billy Donovan 20:1. Now this would be a sexy hire, but given that Donovan collects more than $1 million a year at Florida, it would be hard to convince him to make the move.
Tom Crean 25:1. Another candidate UCLA officials probably would not be smart enough to consider. Crean is young and full of energy, which is desperately needed in Pauley Pavilion right now. Problem is, I don't know if Izzo-ball would quicken the pulses of the locals.
Mike Brey 30:1. Another Duke assistant, who is doing a masterful job at Notre Dame. But Brey is also someone who knows who he is, and he's much more South Bend than L.A.
Jim Saia 50:1. Saia is now Lavin's top assistant and presumably would become interim head coach if Lavin resigned. Unfortunately for Saia, that's exactly how Lavin got the job, and anything that reminds people of Lavin is bad-bad-bad.
Roy Williams 100:1. How's this for an intriguing longshot? Williams has long made California a major recruiting base, and his affection for John Wooden is surpassed only by his dislike for his athletic director at Kansas, Allen Bohl. Plus, L.A. has a 12-month golf season and lots of nice courses.
Larry Brown 200:1. Intriguing longshot No. 2. Brown does have an eye on returning to college, but then again he always has an eye on somewhere else. His biggest impediment might be that he's coaching the U.S. in this summer's World Championships and the 2004 Olympics.
John Wooden 1,000:1. Call me crazy, but this might be the smartest hire of all. Everyone knows the coach who follows Lavin will be fired soon enough anyway for not being Wooden. Why not bring back the real thing?
Other Hoop Thoughts
One last thought on the whole, sordid Nolan Richardson III mess at Tennessee State: The school got what it deserved because it never should have hired Richardson in the first place. He had spent the previous 10 years as the third assistant under his father at Arkansas, which means he didn't even recruit off campus. (His main duties were editing videotape for scouting.) It seems Richardson's only contribution to TSU during his two-plus years there was the $37,500 his team earned for the school when it played in the John Thompson Classic at Arkansas. Sure hope it was worth it.
Before my colleague Grant Wahl gets all in a tizzy about my suggestion that Williams might possibly, someday leave Lawrence, let me pick up the bait that he dropped in his last Mailbag. I really do hope Wayne Simien gets healthy and joins the team soon, but if he's out for the year, I absolutely, positively guarantee that the Jayhawks will not win the national championship. I think G-Dub is still a little lightheaded from watching all those Jay Bilas action flicks.
Ontario Lett has turned out to be quite a player for Pittsburgh, which shows the value of being lucky in recruiting. Lett had no offers at the end of his sophomore year at Pensacola Junior College, and after checking him out on a tip, Howland thought he was good, but not that great. Lett has been much better than Howland or anyone else predicted.
Notre Dame, Indiana and Duke all have the same problem: They're such great 3-point shooting teams that their guards sometimes forget to feed the guys in the post. This is especially true with the Irish, who need to get Torin Francis much more involved in the offense.
ESPN's Jon Sundvold is a truly underrated color commentator.
I'm still a big believer in UConn, and I've usually defended Taliek Brown against his many detractors, but I have to say that Brown has not improved significantly as a point guard, and he may even have regressed from last year. He's great at pushing the ball up the floor, but he only knows how to go at one speed. It's no wonder that the Huskies have such long scoring droughts.
Oklahoma is much improved from November, but the Sooners still are not getting enough production from their two freshmen, Kevin Bookout and DeAngelo Alexander. Alexander, in particular, could be a difference-maker if he starts becoming a reliable shooter.
Speaking of Duke, it's time for Chris Duhon to start looking to score more.
Word out of Birmingham is that James Lang, the 6-foot-10, 305-pound high school senior who last fall backed out of his oral commitment to Louisville, has all but decided to enter the NBA draft. Lang has said he is still considering Louisville and Kentucky, among other schools.
Another potential freshman difference-maker is Maurice Ager at Michigan State. The Spartans are still getting scarce floor leadership at the point, and Ager, when he's on, gives them some more perimeter pop.
My goodness, Daniel Horton grew up quickly at Michigan. Is this really the same team that started out 0-6?
Looks as if Cliff Ellis is in trouble down at Auburn. Home attendance is down, the team is mediocre and the NCAA is crawling all over campus.
Michigan State associate coach Brian Gregory may not get the UCLA job, but somewhere there's a very wise athletic director who's going to hire him soon. Think Crean and Stan Heath have done well after leaving Tom Izzo's staff?
I thought Kevin Braswell was a pretty solid point guard for Georgetown, but I think now that the Hoyas are better off without him. Braswell had the ball in his hands so much and took so many shots that I think he disrupted the flow of the offense. It's no coincidence that this year Georgetown is finally shooting the 3 well and getting Mike Sweetney lots of touches in the post.
Reason No. 314 to believe Arizona will win it all: Big men Rick Anderson, Channing Frye and Luke Walton can all shoot long jumpers.
I've heard some rumblings that NBA scouts are doubting whether T.J. Ford will be an effective point guard in the league. (Concerns: Shooting and size.) Which leads me to ask: Are they watching the same guy I'm watching?
I had the immense pleasure of sitting courtside at the Florida-Georgia game Saturday. I know Ted Valentine took a lot of grief for the off-the-ball foul he whistled on Jarvis Hayes on Georgia's last possession, but I have to say that from where I was sitting, watching it happen at full speed, it sure looked like a good call. When a guy goes flying the way Matt Walsh did, you have to call something.
Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine. Hoop Thoughts will appears every Tuesday during the regular season on CNNSI.com.
