This year, Hoopheads, I'm throwing caution to the wind. In filling out my brackets, I have decided to go out on the ultimate limb and predict a scenario that has never, ever happened once in the 64-year history of the NCAA tournament.
That's right: It says here that all four No. 1 seeds will make the Final Four.
Call me a chalk chump if you want, but if this possibility is so obvious, how come it's never happened before? And why should I try to pick teams that I honestly don't believe will win, just to be trendy?
Believe me, I tried. I imagined Arizona getting tripped up by Gonzaga in the second round, until I remembered that the Zags are big and slow and won't be able to drag the 'Cats into a halfcourt game. I thought about giving UConn the nod over Texas in the South, but then I pictured T.J. Ford matching up against Taliek Brown, and I quickly dismissed that notion. I entertained picking a number of teams in the Midwest -- red-hot Missouri, Dwyane Wade-led Marquette or tough-as-nails Pittsburgh -- over Kentucky. Then I came to my senses. I even submitted an original bracket to SI.com on Monday morning that put Syracuse in the Final Four over Oklahoma. A few hours later, however, I changed my mind when it dawned on me that Carmelo Anthony will never be defended as intelligently and tenaciously as he will by the Sooners on March 30 in Albany -- including when he gets to the NBA.
The fact is, five teams (Kansas being the fifth) have clearly stood above the rest of the nation this season, and should do so again in the postseason. Duke, Louisville and Florida all had their moments, but their vulnerabilities were exposed over the last month. Wake Forest is a nice team that won the ACC regular season by two games, and Pitt looked impressive in rolling through the Big East tourney. But do you honestly think those teams will be cutting down the nets on April 7? Eliminating Kansas was trickier, because the Jayhawks responded better than I thought they would after Wayne Simien's injury. Still, the road out of the West goes through Arizona, which already blew the Jayhawks off their home floor this season.
Besides, anyone can predict that three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 will make the Final Four. It takes real chutzpah to say all four No. 1 seeds will get there.
So there you have it: Kentucky, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma will reach New Orleans, where Kentucky will prevail over Texas in the national championship game. The sleepers and Cinderellas will have their moments in the early rounds, as usual, but in this tournament the best team will usually win.
So you can have your giant slayers. I'm taking the giants.
Bracket Hoop Thoughts
EAST
I was glad to see N.C. State play its way into the field, but I'm still a little chagrined that the Wolfpack had to beat Wake Forest in the ACC tournament to secure its bid. I know it was terrible out of conference, losing big to UMass and Temple, but wouldn't the ACC be a lock to get four bids if it added five lousy schools and didn't make teams play each other twice every season?
Special props to the committee for making room for the three mid-major bubble teams: Butler, Gonzaga and Southern Illinois. I don't care if Butler was a makeup call for last year; the Bulldogs deserved to get in.
I think Mississippi State is the perfect type of team to knock off Louisville. The Bulldogs have quick, athletic guards who can handle Louisville's press, and in Mario Austin they have a player who can expose the Cardinals' soft underbelly.
St. Joseph's perfectly fits the bill of a sleeper team, dominated by a veteran backcourt in Jameer Nelson and Delonte West. This team somehow stayed under the national radar all season, but that's about to change.
SOUTH
Strange how both Anthony Roberson and Brett Nelson seem more comfortable coming off the bench for Florida. The Gators needed to right themselves in the SEC tourney, but still couldn't knock off LSU. Not a good sign.
UNC Wilmington is another classic sleeper: a mid-major that has been to three NCAA tournaments in the last four years and possesses a real shooting star in Brett Blizzard. I know I'm in the minority, but I have them knocking off Maryland.
As good as Anthony is, if one player in this tournament is capable of pulling off a Danny Manning, it's Xavier's David West. He's a multi-talented scoring machine. Most important, he's a senior.
I just don't see how you can justify giving Texas a No. 1 seed over Kansas, which beat Texas in their one meeting, won the Big 12 regular-season title and advanced one round further in the conference tournament. Having said that, if Texas were the No. 2 seed in the West, I would have picked them to beat Arizona, and comfortably.
WE INTERRUPT THIS BRACKET ANALYSIS TO CONVEY THE FOLLOWING RANDOM THOUGHT: As I write this, I am sitting on an airplane en route to my home in Los Angeles. The latest Star Trek movie is playing on the screen in front of me. I have never seen any of the Star Trek movies, nor have I ever watched an episode on TV for more than two minutes. I am very proud of this.
Back to our regularly scheduled column ...
MIDWEST
That Alabama got into this tournament is the biggest disgrace of all. It comes down to this: The Tide was fighting for its NCAA tourney lives, and it still was blown out by Vanderbilt in the first round of the SEC tournament.
Missouri-Marquette, if it happens, is the best second-round matchup on the entire board. I went with Mizzou because I think Ricky Clemons will defend Travis Diener better than Diener will defend Clemons.
The more Ben Howland says he's happy at Pitt, the more I believe he's the next coach at UCLA.
I say there's a 60-percent chance that Tubby Smith will be coaching in the NBA next season, probably in Philadelphia or Charlotte. That figure is on the low end compared with what people are saying in Lexington.
WEST
Of all the No. 1 seeds, I think Arizona is the most vulnerable. I know Will Bynum and Dennis Latimore transferred because they weren't getting a lot of minutes, but the minutes they were getting were valuable to the team. More significant, Luke Walton is still not healthy, and won't be until well after the season.
I have two Cinderellas in this region. Few people realize how good of a job Dennis Felton did this year at Western Kentucky after his two best big men got hurt. The Hilltoppers also have a truly dynamic little point guard in Patrick Sparks. I also think any team that starts three freshmen, as Illinois does, is by definition ripe to be plucked.
To the extent that you can call a top-20 team a Cinderella, I've picked Creighton to the Sweet 16, where people will figure out that the Bluejays are a lot more than just Kyle Korver. I was also very, very tempted to pick Memphis over Kansas, but I think Memphis will try to run with the Jayhawks, which is exactly what Roy Williams will want the Tigers to do.
You've probably already heard this factoid, but I don't think it can be repeated often enough: Vermont coach Tom Brennan has a morning drive-time radio show in Burlington that gets better ratings than both Howard Stern's and Don Imus'. Very, very cool.
Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Hoop Thoughts appears every Tuesday during the regular season. Davis' first book, Equinunk, Tell Your Story: My Return to Summer Camp, is available through Chandler House Press.
