 |
| |
|
 |
 |
||||||||||||||||||||
|
Coming up just short Seven players who almost became heroes last weekendPosted: Tuesday March 25, 2003 3:24 PM
"Nobody remembers who finishes second." That's what Wisconsin-Milwaukee coach Bruce Pearl said to me last Thursday night about a half hour after his Panthers had lost a 70-69 heartbreaker to Notre Dame. On most occasions Pearl would be right, but not this year, and not in this tournament. No, we didn't have the usual batch of upsets that usually occur in the first two rounds, but that doesn't mean the would-be Cinderellas will be forgotten. So before the 2003 NCAA tournament gives us a fresh batch of teams who will finish second in this week's games, I'd like to present my Almost Famous Roll Call -- players who gave their upset-starved fans a ray of hope, even if it didn't translate to one shining moment. Sweet 16 predictionsWe can play this one of two ways, kids. I can ignore the developments of the past weekend and try to align these picks with my original bracket projections. Or I can tell you what I honestly think will happen. I'm choosing the latter path -- which, if you check out how my picks are doing thus far, makes sense. EAST Oklahoma vs. Butler: I had Oklahoma as my Final Four pick coming out of this region, but I didn't realize how severely Hollis Price had hurt his groin on the final play of the Big 12 tournament final. Price scored just five points in the Sooners' second-round win over Cal. OU got a break by drawing Butler instead of Louisville in the Sweet 16, not because Butler is less talented than the Cards (though it is) but because the Bulldogs prefer a slower pace. The Sooners can beat the Bulldogs even if Price is still hobbling, but they'll need him totally healthy for the regional final. Syracuse vs. Auburn: Auburn is not a great matchup for Syracuse, which proved in falling behind by 17 points to Oklahoma State that its transition defense is suspect. The Tigers are not nearly as good as the Cowboys on defense, but they are a much better shooting team, and in Marquis Daniels they have a long, 6-6 slasher who can find holes in the Syracuse zone. Still, Auburn played a putrid nonconference schedule this year and had trouble winning on the road in the SEC. With the game taking place in Albany, this will be a de facto home game for Syracuse, who will prevail. East Region final: In its win over Oklahoma State, Syracuse showed that it can be, almost minute to minute, a very bad team or a very good team. The Orangemen at their best are better than Oklahoma, but the Sooners' lows are not nearly as low as the Orange's. So which Syracuse team will show up? I say the great one, and it heads to the Final Four. SOUTH Texas vs. Connecticut: Stylistically, Texas-UConn will be the most entertaining game of this round. Both teams love to run. The difference is that the Longhorns can effectively play a halfcourt game, while the Huskies can't. In any uptempo contest the difference usually comes at point guard, and that will be no contest. UConn's Taliek Brown missed a couple of weeks with a shoulder injury, but even when he's healthy he has a tendency to be out of control. UConn will need Ben Gordon to go for 40 to win, and Texas' long-armed, rugged perimeter defenders will see that that doesn't happen. Maryland vs. Michigan State: It's amazing to think that a month ago it looked like Michigan State wouldn't even make the tournament, yet here it is in the Sweet 16. The Spartans sure picked the right time to play their best basketball, but I doubt they can maintain that level. Maryland is too deep and too experienced, and the Terps have the horses inside to negate the Spartans' most important asset. South Region final: I've been bullish on the Longhorns all year, and this is no time to stop riding them. I'm driving this (T.J.) Ford all the way to New Orleans. MIDWEST Kentucky vs. Wisconsin: The Badgers have had a great year and they're easy to root for, but I see a train wreck coming. Kentucky is one of the few teams still alive that didn't have anything close to a scare during the first two rounds. Bo Ryan has done Wisconsin a favor by shedding its plodding style from past years, but the worst thing you can try to do is run with the Wildcats. It says here Kentucky will win without breaking stride. Pittsburgh vs. Marquette: You won't find two teams who scratch and claw better than Marquette and Pittsburgh, so this one should be nip and tuck all the way. I've been late in coming around to the Panthers, but even though they're not pretty to watch, they've proven they know how to play well together and win. It won't come easy, but they've got one more W in them. Midwest Region final: This is actually a very tempting upset possibility. No team in the nation more closely mirrors Kentucky than does Pittsburgh, and the Panthers will certainly not be intimidated by the Cats' tenacious D. Still, at some point a team has to make clutch shots and free throws, and Kentucky's ability to put the biscuit in the basket will enable the Wildcats to come out on top. WEST Arizona vs. Notre Dame: Was Arizona's great escape last weekend the prototypical close shave that teams endure on the way to Titletown? Or was it a sign that the 'Cats are vulnerable? I'm guessing it's the latter, but 'Zona certainly proved it won't go down without a fight. Notre Dame played great against Illinois, but while Arizona's personnel is somewhat similar to the Illini's, the Wildcats have a lot more experience. The Irish will ring up a few again on Thursday, but look for Arizona to answer the bell. Kansas vs. Duke: Even though Central Michigan beat Creighton, the Chippewas were a much better matchup for Duke than the Bluejays would have been because CMU's game plan was to slow the tempo and try to take advantage of Chris Kaman inside. Well, Kaman got his points, but the Dukies were able to run away to an easy win. They won't be able to do that against Kansas, which has a great post presence in Nick Collison but is pleased as punch to run-run-run. Duke did well for itself in getting back to the Sweet 16, but the march ends here. West Region final: If Kansas and Arizona do meet, there will be a lot of talk about the game they played on Jan. 25, when Arizona turned a 20-point first-half deficit into a stunning 91-74 win -- in Lawrence, no less. Things will be different this time around. Back then, a major storyline was Arizona's depth and Kansas' lack of it. In the weeks since, however, the Wildcats' rotation was trimmed to eight after Dennis Latimore transferred out (guard Will Bynum had left three weeks before the January meeting). While the Jayhawks never did get injured Wayne Simien back for good, they have solidified their own seven-man rotation. Simien's replacement, Jeff Graves, is also a much more effective player than he was on Jan. 25. The bottom line is that Kansas will have the two best players on the court, and with a smartly conceived and well-executed game plan, this one is theirs for the taking. Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis convers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com.
|
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||
