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Houston has liftoff Look for Astros to overtake Cubs in NL Central
Sports Illustrated's Stephen Cannella checks in with his baseball thoughts every week throughout the season on CNNSI.com If you have anything to sell, you'd be wise to start buying up commercial time during July broadcasts of games involving the Oakland A's. All eyes will be on the Athletics for the next two weeks, with teams waiting to pounce on deals for players such as Jason Giambi, Jason Isringhausen and Johnny Damon if Oakland should tumble out of the wild-card race. But while the baseball world has become more A's-obsessed than an overambitious high school student, the real team to watch may be the Astros, who have quietly crept back into the NL Central race. On the morning of June 14 the Astros were 31-31, seven games behind the first-place Cubs, and they had won just seven of their previous 21 games. Since then they've gone 21-10 -- tied with the Yankees for the best record in the majors during that span -- and before Thursday's contests trailed Chicago by just three games and led the NL wild-card race. Any explanation of the turnaround starts, of course, with Houston's hyperactive offense. The Astros scored six runs or more 21 times in that 31-game stretch, including Wednesday's 17-11 bludgeoning of the Cardinals. "What's scary about Houston is that they have a veteran lineup, and their hitters are the kind that hit good pitchers," says one advance scout. "They can explode against anyone." It's true, veterans like leadoff hitter Craig Biggio and bashers Jeff Bagwell (headed for his third straight 40-homer season) and Moises Alou (league-leading .369 batting average) make their lineup tick, but the Astros have one of baseball's best collections of young talent to thank for their resurgence. Center fielder Lance Berkman, 25, has exploded in his first year as an everyday player -- he's second in the league in hitting (.358), second in on-base percentage (.453), third in RBIs (86) and sixth in home runs (26). "To me, Berkman is better than [Cardinals rookie] Albert Pujols," says the scout. "He can really hit, he goes the other way extremely well, and he's a much better center fielder than people thought he would be." A pair of kids have invigorated Houston's pitching staff as well. Right-hander Wade Miller, 24, who is 11-4 with a 4.18 ERA, has a nasty four-pitch arsenal, including a sinking changeup deadly to hitters expecting a 94-mph fastball. And 23-year-old right-hander Roy Oswalt is 8-1 with a 3.14 ERA since being called up from Class AAA in May. Miller and Oswalt have picked up the slack from veterans Shane Reynolds (8-9, 5.42) and Scott Elarton (4-8, 7.14). Says the scout, "Houston's young arms are better than their old arms." That group has an advantage the Cubs' starters lack -- they don't have to be perfect, just effective enough to keep the game within reach. Houston's hitters provide the ultimate safety net, which is why the Astros should overtake Chicago. They'll have plenty of opportunity to do so: Beginning with a four-game series that starts Friday, Houston plays the Cubs 14 more times, including a four-game set at Wrigley Field to end the season. All you entrepreneurs might want to buy some ad time during those games, too. Sports Illustrated staff writer Stephen Cannella covers the baseball beat for
the magazine. Touching Base appears every week on CNNSI.com.
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