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On second thought ...
Rethinking early picks with the benefit of hindsight
Posted: Thursday October 04, 2001 5:29 PM
Sports Illustrated's Stephen Cannella checks in with his baseball thoughts
every week throughout the season on CNNSI.com. To read his picks in some
less-than-major awards categories click
here.
Every year during spring training, the good people at CNNSI.com ask me and my
fellow Sports Illustrated baseball writers, Tom Verducci and Jeff
Pearlman, to make some fearless predictions for the season ahead. As far as I'm
concerned, nothing good can come of such prognostication. If you're prescient,
and by October everything has turned out the way you had expected in March, then the
season was probably as exciting as a mystery novel to which you know the ending.
If your predictions are way off base, someone is sure to dredge them up, throw
them back in your face and wonder aloud if you actually watch any of the games
in the sport you cover. (Like Pearlman's pick of the Royals to win the NL
Central this year. KC is, ahem, 28 1/2 games out with four to play. But I
digress.)
As the season winds down, I figured I'd beat everyone to the punch, grade my
preseason ruminations myself and offer amended choices based on the wisdom
gained during a season played. The verdict? My crystal ball was apparently on
the fritz back in March, but I'm holding strong to the only prediction that
really counts: Yankees over the Cardinals in the World
Series.
AL MVP
Spring pick: Magglio Ordonez, White
Sox
Hindsight choice: Ichiro Suzuki,
Mariners
Ordonez's numbers (.304, 30 home runs, 111 RBIs) are strong, but no one on a
team that was never in serious playoff contention will win an
MVP.
NL MVP
Spring pick: Jeff Bagwell, Astros
Hindsight choice: Barry Bonds,
Giants
Under normal circumstances, Bagwell would be a serious candidate -- he's been a
run-producing monster, as usual, and Houston is headed to the playoffs. Alas,
Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Luis Gonzalez all had historic seasons for
teams in the postseason hunt until the final week. Sorry,
Jeff.
AL Cy
Young
Spring pick: Pedro Martinez, Red
Sox
Hindsight choice: Roger Clemens,
Yankees
Pedro was headed for another dominating year when he was derailed by midsummer
shoulder woes. Clemens got off to the best start (20-1) in history. He wins in a
landslide.
NL Cy
Young
Spring pick: Kevin Brown,
Dodgers
Hindsight choice: Randy Johnson,
Diamondbacks
Brown fought injuries all year. Johnson, meanwhile, is within 12 Ks of Nolan
Ryan's single-season strikeout record. It's close, but the Unit should win
over rotation-mate Curt
Schilling.
AL Rookie of the
Year
Spring pick: Alfonso Soriano,
Yankees
Hindsight choice: Ichiro Suzuki,
Mariners
Most years, Soriano would have been a solid choice. Yet another prediction
steamrolled by the Ichiro
Express.
NL Rookie of the
Year
Spring pick: Ben Sheets, Brewers
Hindsight choice: Albert Pujols,
Cardinals
Hey, I didn't even know Pujols' name back in March and neither did you. A solid
effort by Sheets (10-10, 4.77 ERA) was overshadowed by perhaps the greatest
offensive season ever by a
rookie.
AL Home Run
Leader
Spring pick: Carlos Delgado, Blue
Jays
Hindsight choice: Alex Rodriguez,
Rangers
Delgado's 39 bombs are respectable, but Rodriguez's power numbers jumped with
the move from Seattle's Safeco Field to The Ballpark in Arlington. Scary
thought: At age 26, A-Rod is just entering what are usually a power hitter's
prime years. Pencil him in for 50-plus every year from now
on.
NL Home Run
Leader
Spring pick: Vladimir Guerrero,
Expos
Hindsight choice: Barry Bonds,
Giants
No one expected Bonds, who had never even hit 50 homers in a season, to go on
such a power binge at age 37. The upward arc of Guerrero's home runs numbers
(38, 42, 44 the last three seasons) leveled off this year -- he won't even reach
40.
AL Batting
Title
Spring pick: Darin Erstad, Angels
Hindsight choice: Ichiro Suzuki,
Mariners
Erstad endured a season-long slump and was never comfortable at the plate. Guess
who's there to fill his
shoes?
NL Batting
Title
Spring pick: Jeff Cirillo,
Rockies
Hindsight choice: Larry Walker,
Rockies
After a slow start Cirillo has cranked up his average to .315, still his lowest
mark in four years. His teammate Walker quietly returned to form after a down
2000 season -- he's coasting to the batting crown with a .352
average.
AL Pitching Victories
Spring pick: Tim Hudson,
A's
Hindsight choice: Mark Mulder,
A's
I wasn't far off on this one -- Hudson is right up there with 17 wins. Mulder,
however, is tied with Roger Clemens at 20. At least I got the team
right.
NL Pitching
Victories
Spring pick: Kevin Brown,
Dodgers
Hindsight choice: Curt Schilling,
Diamondbacks
Brown might have been among the leaders if he were healthy, but Schilling
pitched with purpose and aggressiveness and had the best season of his
career.
AL Comeback Player of the
Year
Spring pick: Wilson Alvarez, Devil
Rays
Hindsight choice: Juan Gonzalez,
Indians
Oops. The reports coming out of Devil Rays camp were that Alvarez might be back
from his shoulder injury in May. Didn't happen -- he didn't give the team a
single inning this season. Gonzalez, meanwhile, rocketed back to his 1999 level
after a sour season in
Detroit.
NL Comeback Player of the
Year
Spring pick: John Smoltz,
Braves
Hindsight choice:
Smoltz
I'm sticking with the Atlanta veteran, who reinvented himself as a closer when
it became clear his elbow couldn't handle the stress of
starting.
Most Overrated
Player
Spring pick: Ichiro Suzuki,
Mariners
Hindsight choice: Chuck Knoblauch,
Yankees
I'd like to forget about this one. Several scouts told me during the spring that
Ichiro was having trouble getting around on average fastballs and was being
eaten up by inside pitches. Let's just say he got himself straightened out by
Opening Day.
Breakout
Player
Spring pick: Derrek Lee,
Marlins
Hindsight choice: Lance Berkman,
Astros
After hitting 28 homers and driving in 70 runs last season, Lee tread water this
year (21 homers, 72 RBIs). Berkman developed into one of the best young sluggers
in the
NL.
Surprise
Team
Spring pick:
Brewers
Hindsight choice:
Cubs
There's talent there, but the Brew Crew tanked, losing 90 games and breaking the
team record for strikeouts. The Cubbies missed the playoffs but came closer than
anyone guessed they
would.
Disappointing
Team
Spring pick: Red
Sox
Hindsight choice: Red
Sox
Things have become ugly over the last two months. Yes, Pedro, Nomar and Jason
Varitek missed huge chunks of the season with injuries. But struggling to
finish .500 after being 16 games over in July? "Disappointing" is a
kind way to describe Boston's
season.
Manager of the
Year
Spring pick: Larry Dierker,
Astros
Hindsight choice: Lou Piniella,
Mariners
Dierker did a fine job, but it's hard to overlook the magic wand Piniella waved
in Seattle. They lost A-Rod and still challenged the AL record for wins.
Regardless of what they do in the postseason, this was an amazing year for the
Mariners.
Sports Illustrated's Stephen Cannella checks in with his baseball thoughts
every week throughout the season on CNNSI.com.
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