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A time for reflection
Using 20/20 hindsight to amend preseason predictions
Posted: Thursday September 26, 2002 4:30 PM
Updated: Thursday September 26, 2002 6:01 PM
Like a kid bringing home a mediocre report card to his parents, I'll start with the good news: I know my home run hitters. Or I did back in March, when I posted predictions for the 2002 season in various categories. I went out on a limb and picked Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa to lead their respective leagues in homers. With four games left in the season, guess whose names were atop the leaderboards?
OK, OK, those weren't longshot choices -- betting on those two in a power category is like picking Friends to beat The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer in the ratings. But my bruised ego is clinging to any comfort it can find. (I also did all right in naming Ron Gardenhire Manager of the Year, Kevin Millwood and Darin Erstad as Comeback Players of the Year, the Mets and Indians as disappointments, Eric Chavez as my AL breakout player and the Angels as the AL's surprise team.) Frankly, I whiffed on many of my other picks. What happened? Clearly, the season turned out to be entertaining and full of surprises and unexpected twists. That's the explanation I'm offering, anyway. Here are my amended choices in selected other categories.
AL MVP
Spring pick: Jason Giambi, Yankees
Hindsight choice: Miguel Tejada, A's
You could make a solid case for Giambi, and it's hard to ignore A-Rod's monster season, but no player was more important to a contender than Tejada.
NL MVP
Spring pick: Chipper Jones, Braves
Hindsight choice: Barry Bonds, Giants
Jones has been solid, but 96 RBIs heading into the season's final weekend doesn't cut it. Bonds fits the perfect MVP profile: Dazzling numbers and a key role on a team in contention all year.
AL Cy Young
Spring pick: Mark Mulder, A's
Hindsight choice: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox
Oakland's Barry Zito and Martinez's rotation-mate Derek Lowe have more wins, but Pedro leads the league in ERA, strikeouts, opponents' average and win percentage. Hard to overlook all that.
NL Cy Young
Spring pick: Matt Morris, Cardinals
Hindsight choice: Curt Schilling, Diamondbacks
Last week I wrote that Schilling deserved the award over Randy Johnson . Schilling's since been shelled for 14 earned runs in two starts and his ERA has ballooned to 3.14, but -- call me stubborn -- I'm standing by my choice. Two September outings don't ruin a wonderful season.
AL Rookie of the Year
Spring pick: Carlos Pena, A's
Hindsight choice: Eric Hinske, Blue Jays
Oops. Pena struggled and was sent to the minors in May, then traded to Detroit. Hinske led all rookies in homers and RBIs.
NL Rookie of the Year
Spring pick: Sean Burroughs, Padres.
Hindsight choice: Jason Jennings, Rockies
Oops again. (Note to self: Do more research next year before picking rookies to hype.) Burroughs ended up spending most of the year at Class AAA. Jennings, meanwhile, deserves to have an award named after him for the way he handled Coors Field. No Rockies starter has ever won more games there in a single season, and Jennings is also the first NL rookie to win 15 games since 1985.
NL Breakout Player
Spring pick: Adrian Beltre, Dodgers
Hindsight choice: Pat Burrell, Phillies
Beltre was awful in the first half, though he did rebound well after the break. Burrell has matured into a cleanup hitter (115 RBIs) for the Phils to build around.
NL Surprise Team
Spring pick: Marlins
Hindsight choice: Reds
The Marlins teased us in the first half but then thudded back to earth. The Reds, with a spit-and-glue rotation, stayed in the NL Central race longer than anyone thought they could. They're a team to watch in '03.
Sports Illustrated staff writer Stephen Cannella covers the baseball beat for the magazine. Touching Base appears every week on CNNSI.com.
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