How ill is the NHL?

The answer is blowing in this weekend's entry draft

Hope springs eternal on NHL draft day. Every player chosen is destined to be a star. Every general manager is sure he has built the foundation for his franchise's long-term success. Contract haggles, flameouts, talent misevaluations, career-ending injuries -- those are problems for another day. On draft day nothing matters but smiling faces, prospects' shiny new suits and the visions of Stanley Cups dancing in everyone's heads.

That's how it's supposed to play out, but things will be different when the NHL holds its annual meat market this weekend in Nashville. Most, if not all, of the players chosen will need a year or two of seasoning before making a significant impact on the league. But the NHL -- if there is an NHL -- could be a very different animal in two years than it is today, thanks to the labor freeze that seems certain to descend when the current collective bargaining agreement expires in September 2004. The draft is a time for looking ahead. But the league's uncertain financial future will color every decision teams make this weekend.

For starters, virtually every club -- with the possible exception of the perpetually spendthrift Maple Leafs -- is eager to get rid of players with hefty contracts. Remember the flurry of activity in March, when a record 24 deals were made on trade deadline day? Many GMs and agents expect that pace to continue this weekend. The Capitals would be happy to let anyone have Jaromir Jagr and his $11 million salary, and they'll listen to offers for Peter Bondra as well. Nikolai Khabibulin, who didn't start the Lightning's final playoff game against the Devils, is available for anyone willing to shell out $6 million for a goaltender. The Flyers are said to be shopping John LeClair. The Stars need to clear payroll so they can re-sign free-agent defenseman Derian Hatcher, and they may do so by dumping Bill Guerin and his $8 million salary.

But if everyone is selling, who's buying? Speculation over possible deals will create much intrigue this weekend, but it might also distract from the actual draft. That's unfortunate, because this is one of the deepest pools of prospects in years. Marc-Andre Fleury could well become just the second goalie to be chosen No. 1, especially if the Panthers, who are set in net with Roberto Luongo, trade away the top pick. Eric Staal, Dustin Brown, Thomas Vanek and Nathan Horton are all potential top-flight scorers. Unlike in the NBA, which has LeBron James and then everyone else, there is no clear-cut top pick. Fans could spend hours debating the relative merits and prospective successes of these players.

Instead, the young talent might be overshadowed by more salary dumping, more reminders that the NHL's future is less rosy than that of most of these prospects. Consider the draft the unofficial opening of what promises to be the NHL's strangest season. This weekend may be remembered more for the current stars who changed jerseys than for the future stars who tried theirs on for the first time.

Sports Illustrated staff writer Stephen Cannella covers the NHL for the magazine and contributes frequently to SI.com.

 

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