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Computer illiterate Best change BCS can make to formula is to lose itPosted: Monday June 24, 2002 2:48 PM
With all that we could be discussing about the coming college football season in these throes of summer, it figures that I find myself writing about the BCS rankings. Because for all the great things the sport has witnessed the past few years -- coaching milestones, rushing records, historic upsets -- one topic has managed to eat up more of our attention than any of the others. Everyone has an opinion when it comes to college football's terminal postseason debate. So before beginning our discussion of the latest tweaks to the BCS formula, I might as well get mine out of the way:
So, the BCS wants its gurus to eliminate margin of victory altogether. As many as three or four of the eight are threatening to defect. Is that good? Bad? Does it really matter? The better question is, what's the deal with the darn formula that it has to be changed every year?
Apparently, the BCS powers-that-be are in agreement with the populace that believes Nebraska should not have played in the Rose Bowl last season after failing to win its conference. Apparently, they believe it had to do with the Huskers' penchant for beating some of their more hapless foes by scores like 48-3 and 51-7. Apparently, they've come to the conclusion this flaw must be corrected. There's only one problem. The conference commissioners who run the BCS are lifelong athletic employees whose backgrounds by no means equip them to oversee a complex math formula. Their only plausible means of, for example, selecting the appropriate computer ratings to include is to apply them to past seasons and see if the results jive with what actually happened. But just as these latest wrinkles weren't even on the horizon a year ago, some new, unforeseen controversy will surely arise next year and merit even more tinkering. And to prove it, consider that the previous two paragraphs were lifted from a column I wrote last summer. Like I said then and have said many times since, the BCS does not have to be so complicated. Simply put, all you need are bowls and polls. In each of the BCS' four seasons of existence, the two teams the public concluded should have played for the national championship -- including Miami and Oregon last year, Oklahoma and Miami the year before -- were the AP and coaches' No. 1 and 2 teams prior to the bowls. No need for new-age computer models; just the same, human ballots we've been using for almost 70 years. In the event the two polls have a different second teams, use schedule strength rankings as a tiebreaker. The past keepers of the BCS torch, architect Roy Kramer and successor John Swofford, were openly leery of letting subjectivity play too big a role in the process, thus justifying their overly elaborate computer component. But new head guy Mike Tranghese, author of last week's much-chronicled e-mail nixing margin-of-victory, seems far less skeptical of the human pulse. He's the one championing the cause of a "human oversight committee" that would override any unfavorable 1-2 matchup the formula might spit out. If it indeed comes to that, if in the end all those weeks of fuss and data result in human beings deciding the thing anyway, just save us all the trouble. Make the override permanent.
For some, basketball can't start soon enoughAny hopes of a miracle turnaround for Duke this season were likely squashed when veteran QB D. Bryant was ruled academically ineligible. Though the senior has struggled just like the rest of the Blue Devils during their 23 consecutive losses, he's always been one of their better athletes and a player whom head coach Carl Franks, a Steve Spurrier protege, has built his offense around. Now, forced to go with one of four underclassmen behind center who've combined for 17 career pass attempts, it may be that the only realistic goal for Duke is to avoid a third straight winless season. If not, the 12 additional losses would bring its total to 35, breaking the all-time Division I-A record set by Northwestern when it lost 34 straight from 1979-82. Two of Duke's 23 losses, coincidentally, have come against the Wildcats, and the two teams square off again Sept. 14 at Northwestern in what would appear to be the Blue Devils' second-best prospect for victory. (Two weeks later they visit Navy, a fellow 2001 winless team). But unfortunately for Franks, 3-30 in three seasons at his alma mater, it will almost certainly take more than two wins to save his job.
This week's SEC updateIt appears as if the search committee has found a couple finalists who appeal both to its university presidents, who desire a fellow educator or other candidate capable of cleaning up the league's off-field image, and its athletic directors, who obviously prefer an experienced athletic administrator. Besides current SEC associate commissioner and Kramer protege Mark Womack, the two names being reported as finalists are Ohio Valley Conference commissioner Dan Beebe and Conference USA commissioner Mike Slive. While both obviously have experience in a position like Kramer's, they also boast histories dealing with NCAA compliance issues. Beebe, 45, the OVC's commissioner since 1989, is a former NCAA enforcement director who led the mid-'80s investigation that resulted in SMU's death penalty. He also sits on the supervisory Division I Management Council. And Slive, 61, commissioner of C-USA since its 1995 inception, is currently the chair of the NCAA's Infractions Appeals Committee, which -- perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not -- hears Alabama's appeals case Aug. 16. Of the three, Slive has the highest profile and would figure to be the favorite, but had at one point reportedly withdrawn his name from consideration upon originally being mentioned for the job.
Worth notingRemember back during spring practice reading about Wake Forest's exceptional depth at running back? Well ... it's gone. Within the span of a few days last week, 1,000-yard rusher Tarence Williams broke his foot and could miss the start of the season, while backup Fred Staton, who had 583 yards last year, is academically ineligible for 2002. ... QB Matt LoVecchio has yet to offer an explanation for leaving Notre Dame, but the choice of Indiana as his new school rules out at least one possibility. The New Jersey native, who was widely expected to transfer closer to home, must not have minded new Irish coach Tyrone Willingham's West Coast offense, as first-year Hoosiers head man Gerry DiNardo is installing the same thing. ... Central Florida coach Mike Kruczek, whose team joins the Mid-American Conference this season, recently raised quite a few eyebrows up in Huntington, W. Va., home of league powerhouse Marshall, when he was quoted as telling an alumni chapter, "I'm a very confident guy, and I think we can be undefeated." He added, "Our major concern is our out-of-conference opponents." UCF visits Marshall Sept. 20; Kruczek claims he was misquoted. ... It may be that Hawaii fans will never be able to rest easy as long as June Jones is their head coach. The ex-Atlanta Falcons and San Diego Chargers coach, often rumored when NFL jobs come open, was asked during a recent visit to Falcons camp whether he ever gets the itch to return to the pros. "Yeah, I do," he said. "I love it where I am. We're going to be a good football team this year. You hope it works out where I can stay where I am, but you never know."Stewart Mandel covers college football for CNNSI.com. Got a comment, question or scoop for Stewart? Click here.
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