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Brackets for Dummies
How to win an NCAA tournament pool? I have no idea
Posted: Monday March 17, 2003 11:20 AM
As college basketball writer for this Web site, I've been asked to pen a column on how to fill out a NCAA tournament bracket.
Which is hilarious.
In 17 years of filling these things out, I've never, ever won a tournament pool. I used to be competitive, back in high school and college. But ever since I started following the sport professionally -- i.e. seeing most of the top teams in person, knowing more about Holy Cross and Central Michigan than just their nicknames -- my performances have gone straight down the toilet.
Two years ago marked rock bottom.
While most sane human beings correctly picked Duke to win the national title, I went with Stanford, which promptly lost in the Elite Eight. This allowed me to finish dead last in a pool of about 45 entrants, some of whom either tossed a coin, insisted on picking only odd seeds or made their choices based on which teams had the tougher mascot.
What makes it all worthwhile, though, is knowing how many millions of you I can help simply by allowing you to learn from my mistakes.
Always preferring to write about subjects in which I'm more knowledgeable, I hereby present the Eight Guaranteed Ways to Lose Your NCAA Tournament Pool:
Pick outrageous first-round upsets: We all know some 13 or 14 seed is going to pull a stunner, but unless you're Nostradamus, you're not going to correctly predict whether it will be Austin Peay or Troy State. Furthermore, if you do have the gall to pick, say, San Diego, not only will they not win, but the team they would have upset, Stanford, will go on to the Elite Eight, thus costing you oodles of points, and for what? One measly point, and the chance to brag pathetically to your friends.
Count out certain teams just because they're inconsistent, undisciplined and generally impossible to believe in: That logic burned me last year when, for some reason, I didn't foresee that a grossly talented Missouri team which underachieved all season long would suddenly start caring come tourney time and make the Elite Eight as a 12 seed. Same thing with North Carolina's Final Four team in 2000. This season, look no further than Alabama.
Cross things out: You spend 20 minutes agonizing over Dayton-Tulsa. You finally settle on the Flyers, but no sooner have you written in the D-A-Y than you start having second thoughts. So you cross out Dayton and write in Tulsa. And as soon as you do, you've lost that point. Of course Dayton is going to win now, because you should have gone with your first instinct. And if you do switch it back, then Tulsa is going to win, so you can kick yourself even more.
Pick your favorite team to go way further than any rational person would : You're a huge Dayton fan, and you figure hey, why not have a little fun and put the Flyers in the Final Four? It's just one team. Hey, doofus, now you've taken what could have been a first-place bracket and relegated yourself to spending the next two weeks telling everyone, "Hey, I'd be doing pretty well if I hadn't taken Dayton."
Read too much into trends: Notre Dame started 21-5, then lost four of its last five. No way will they suddenly get hot again, right? Ha! If there was rhyme and reason to this thing, Indiana wouldn't have reached the national championship last year by winning more consecutive games than it did all season, nor would Gonzaga have lost its first tourney game after winning 26 of its previous 27.
Allow yourself to be influenced by tournament history: You know the type -- No way am I picking Wake Forest, they always choke. As if Josh Howard will be shooting free throws with the game on the line and suddenly start thinking Man, I don't know if I'm going to make this, I think Randolph Childress missed in a similar situation in '95!
Put too much stock in coaches: If you listen to Dick Vitale too much, you begin to think guys like Mike Krzyzewski, Gary Williams and Tom Izzo are infallible, and therefore it's tempting to pick against a more anonymous competitor. But look, there's only so much one of these guys can do if their point guard can't shoot or their center can't stay out of foul trouble.
Devote more than 15 minutes to the entire process: Sure, you can spend the next three days poring over stats and matchups in search of any little edge, and that probably will help. But take it from me, You will not win. What you're trying to do is apply logic to an illogical event. Instead, next time try watching no basketball from November to February, looking up nothing about any of the teams and handing over your bracket to a secretary in your office who thinks Sam Houston is an American Idol contestant.
You might not win, but at least you won't be as big a loser as the rest of us.
Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.
Got a comment, question or scoop for Stewart? Click here.
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