Ones not done

Forecasting the Sweet 16: Pencil in the 'Cats and ...

The members of the 2003 Sweet 16 divide quite nicely into two categories.

Old, and new.

Old as in the owners of the last seven national championships -- Kentucky, Arizona, Connecticut, Michigan State, Duke and Maryland -- as well as returning Final Four participants Oklahoma and Kansas.

New as in Auburn and Butler, Marquette and Notre Dame, upstart power Pittsburgh and first-time No. 1 seed Texas.

Only Wisconsin, three years removed from a Final Four, and Syracuse, going on seven years since its last trip, fall somewhere in between, but the Orangemen seemingly belong more with the former and the Badgers more with the latter.

An abundance of second-round upsets ensured not a single region went to form, yet managed to provide for more star power than any field in recent memory.

Maryland and Michigan State, with five Final Fours between them the past four years, are set to stage the most glamorous six-seven game in NCAA history.

Duke and Kansas, two teams many had meeting in the title game in their brackets a year ago, finally get their showdown -- in the Sweet 16.

Meanwhile, Syracuse and Auburn have staged some pretty good football games the past couple years, but a regional semifinal in basketball?

Sounds almost as strange as Oklahoma-Butler.

Old and new. New and old. Which one will ultimately prevail?

All four No. 1 seeds remain, yet you can't help but look at some of their star-studded regions and wince.

Kentucky and Arizona, the two consensus favorites, happen to be in the two regions that went closest to form.

Kentucky will face no worse than a three seed, Marquette, if it reaches the Elite Eight. Same with Arizona, which will be dealing with one of two possible poisons: Kansas or Duke.

Texas, meanwhile, has appeared the most vulnerable of the top seeds, and it now enters a regional that happens to include three of the past four national champions: Connecticut (1999), Michigan State (2000) and Maryland (2002).

The Longhorns haven't gone as far as the Elite Eight since 1990.

Only Oklahoma, which, granted, is so banged up it qualifies for worker's compensation and hasn't played outside of its state or neighbor Texas in almost a month, seems to have caught a break.

Butler's ride has been fun, but history says this is where it will probably end. Of the 12 No. 12 seeds to reach the Sweet 16, only one, Missouri last year, won another game.

Then again, the Sooners' Elite Eight opponent in Albany could be unofficial host Syracuse, not exactly doing them any favors.

So, which will it be, old or new?

Here's thinking old. Definitely old.

Kentucky is showing no sign of slowing down any time soon. Pencil in the Wildcats.

Pencil in the other Wildcats, too, the only team from the West in the West.

In the South, Connecticut takes down Texas, then cools off whichever overachiever, Maryland or Michigan State, presents itself.

And Syracuse wins the Syracuse Invitational, making for an all-Big East semifinal and an all old-school Final Four.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.

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