Spring's secrets revealed

What coaches don't want you to know about season ahead

You can't hide the truth forever, coaches. We know better.

You can sit your entire starting lineup for the spring game, like Wisconsin. You can hold back all your most important changes, like Nebraska's new coordinators, or hold your practices under the shroud of military-caliber secrecy, like Michigan.

Eventually -- this fall, actually -- it's all going to come out.

So why not start now?

With spring practice coming to a close around the country, it's time to let you in on 10 of the worst-kept secrets around college football regarding the upcoming season:

• Top 25 teams heading into 2003

• Top 10 Heisman candidates for 2003

1. Texas will be better without Chris Simms.

No, this is not meant as a final parting shot at the world's most celebrated 97th pick before he heads off to Tampa. It's just that the running skills of replacement Chance Mock (and his eventual replacement, Vincent Young) have allowed the Longhorns to finally open up their offense to include shotgun, option and designed QB sprints, properly maximizing the abundant talent on that side of the ball. The quarterback now becomes a weapon, to go along with such others as tailback Cedric Benson, wideout Roy Williams and tight end David Thomas.

This, of course, depends on Mack Brown and offensive coordinator Greg Davis not retreating into their old, conservative ways at the first sight of a Stoops brother.

2. Ohio State will get it done a different way.

Last year, the Buckeyes were able to win 14 consecutive games on the strength of an ultra-stingy defense that continually rose to the occasion even when their modest, run-dominated offense continually stalled. This year, it could be the exact opposite.

While the defense will go through some growing pains replacing stalwarts Mike Doss, Cie Grant, Matt Wilhelm and Donnie Nickey, coach Jim Tressel has enough confidence in QB Craig Krenzel to air it out a little more and put some points on the board. Plus there's Maurice Clarett.

It's entirely possible Ohio State will be a more dangerous team yet fall short of returning to the title game just because a couple breaks don't fall their way.

3. Chris Leak will be Florida's starting quarterback.

Ron Zook continually praised the spring performance of sophomore Ingle Martin, who emerged as the No. 1 guy going into fall. But don't be fooled, it was all a charade.

With his young team likely to struggle in other areas and the pressure already mounting after a disappointing debut, Zook needs his quarterback to be a playmaker. Of his choices, only Leak is the caliber athlete to pull it off. Plus, his recruiting jewel has a step up on the typical freshman quarterback in that he ran virtually the same offense as the Gators in high school.

Expect Martin to start the season under center but give way to Leak before too long.

4. Oklahoma will have its toughest defense yet.

The Sooners obviously have had some pretty good ones the past few years, but last season's actually got burned on a few occasions (Missouri, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State), thanks to a vulnerability to the deep ball.

So what did co-coordinators Mike Stoops and Brent Venables do? Add the nation's top junior college safety, Donte Nicholson, to a unit that already includes nine returning starters, including potential All-Americas Tommie Harris, Teddy Lehman, Brandon Everage, Lance Mitchell and Derrick Strait.

Nicholson has the makings of another Roy Williams-type safety, and if that weren't enough, another juco stud, cornerback Chijoke Onyenegecha, is trying to join the Sooners if he can get out of his letter of intent to Arizona State.

5. Colorado is in for a tumble, as are Alabama and Penn State.

It figures to be a rebuilding year for the two-time defending Big 12 North champs, whose quarterbacks are all green, the cogs of their strong offensive line the past two years have all departed and the linebackers and secondary are in flux. Not a good situation to have when your non-conference schedule includes Florida State, Washington State and UCLA. Smells like 5-7.

In Tuscaloosa, Mike Price figures to have trouble reaching the Crimson Tide's 10-win total of a year ago. Part of it is losing the senior-laden defensive line that was so valuable to Dennis Franchione, part of it is the scholarship reductions kicking in. But mostly it's that the personnel on hand isn't yet suited to the type of wide-open offense Price plans to implement. Give him a couple years.

As for the Nittany Lions -- at least the ones not getting into fights with wrestlers or getting kicked out of school -- nothing was more telling than the team's record four first-round and two second-round draft picks. You're telling me with that kind of talent the best they could muster was 9-4? And remember, it took two losing seasons just to get to that point. With a lot of rebuilding to do, expect this one to more closely resemble those.

6. This will probably be Paul Pasqualoni's last go-around at Syracuse.

Folks on the Hill like to boast that they've avoided the type of revolving door so common at other schools, keeping the same basketball coach, Jim Boeheim, for 27 years, and Pasqualoni for 13. But they also won't put up with another 4-8 season. And while the Orangemen should be somewhat improved, it's hard to imagine them competing in a suddenly formidable Big East where Miami, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Boston College and West Virginia all have lapped them.

Other hot-seat inhabitants headed into the season: Duke's Carl Franks (5-40 in four seasons), Arizona's John Mackovic (stung by a player mutiny last fall), Nebraska's Frank Solich (coming off the school's worst season in 40 years), Clemson's Tommy Bowden (8-8 in ACC the past two seasons) and Georgia Tech's Chan Gailey (fans are none too pleased with 51-7 loss to rival Georgia and Silicon Valley upset by Fresno State).

7. Missouri, Minnesota and Arizona State are on the rise.

He's only played one year of college football, but Brad Smith has all the makings of a savior who should lead Mizzou to its first bowl game in five years. Remember, this is a team that went 5-7 last season with last-second losses to Oklahoma and Iowa State.

The Gophers won seven of their first eight last season despite fielding one of the youngest two-deeps in the country, finishing with an impressive bowl win over Arkansas. With QB Asad Abdul-Khaliq back for his 27th season this fall, along with 1,300-yard rusher Terry Jackson, 10 returning starters on defense and a favorable schedule, Glen Mason should have his best season to date.

And, quite simply, Dirk Koetter has turned the Sun Devils into one of the most explosive offenses in the country. QB Andrew Walter should put up more big numbers, perhaps enough to compensate for losing Terrell Suggs on defense.

8. The ACC race will be tougher than the SEC.

That'll rile up a few southerners, won't it?

The SEC is and always will be deeper top to bottom. But while defending champ Georgia rebuilds its offensive line and defense, Tennessee tries to rediscover its offense, Florida goes through transition and Alabama deals with probation, the ACC boasts four solid teams -- N.C. State, Florida State, Maryland and Virginia -- among our post-spring top 16.

Of those four, the one with the most questions, ironically, is the one that's won nine of the past 10 league titles, FSU. But an experienced Chris Rix along with three quality running backs in Greg Jones, Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker means the 'Noles should be formidable. Philip Rivers is poised to have a huge senior year for the Wolfpack, Maryland gets back All-ACC tailback Bruce Perry and Virginia's accumulation of young talent is downright scary.

9. Kentucky is redefining the term "two-headed quarterback."

When new Wildcats coach Rich Brooks says he wants to get both Jared Lorenzen and Shane Boyd on the field, he's not kidding. At various points in the spring, one lined up at quarterback, the other at running back. One dropped back and the other went deep. Yes, that meant the hefty lefty Lorenzen, who's trimmed down to 275, lining up wide.

Kentucky might not win a lot of games this fall, but they should be fun to watch.

10. Remember, this time last year no one was writing about Ohio State, Carson Palmer or Brad Banks.

We would love to share with you who those out-of-left-field stories will be this season, but alas, those darn coaches are keeping it a secret.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.

To send a question or comment for Stewart's Mailbag, click here.

 

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