Hurricane warning

Miami defection might spell doom for Big East leftovers

If the current speculation holds true, a Hurricane is about to wipe out the present landscape of college football.

The goal for those in its path? Try to avoid becoming part of the devastation.

If Miami joins the ACC -- and various reports out of South Florida say such a move is looking more and more inevitable -- the ripple effect will be felt by schools up and down the East Coast, and as far west as South Bend, Ind.

Commissioners, athletic directors, television execs, bowl officials and other parties with a vested interest are all anxiously awaiting a decision by the 'Canes (who, it should be noted, haven't yet been officially invited by the ACC).

And for five of Miami's current Big East peers, it might be time to start panicking.

"I've never seen anything like it," one athletic director told the Boston Globe. "Everybody is trying to line up support and make plans on what could happen."

With Syracuse and Boston College expected to follow Miami to the ACC, giving that league the 12 members necessary to create a potentially lucrative football title game, Big East leftovers Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Connecticut (which replaces Temple in 2004) would find themselves on very shaky ground. They'd be one team short of the NCAA minimum needed to field a conference, and they'd almost certainly be expelled from the BCS.

There's too much at stake, though, for the remaining Big East schools to simply fold up shop and head their separate ways.

"Those schools have too much invested [in football], and they don't see how they can do it as an independent," said one Big East source. "They'd have no chance of getting on television."

If the league stuck together and attempted to salvage its football business, the only available targets would seem to be successful "mid-majors" from places like Conference USA and the MAC. Louisville, Cincinnati, Marshall and South Florida would all be viable choices.

But would the reformed league be strong enough to merit inclusion in the BCS? Retain its current stable of bowl partners (Gator, Insight, Continental Tire, San Francisco)? Garner a valuable television contract?

Probably not, in which case the schools' athletic programs would face serious trouble meeting their budgets. The drop-off in annual revenue between a team from a BCS conference and a non-BCS conference is about $8 million.

In that event, you can count on Pittsburgh shopping its services to the 11-team Big Ten, which hasn't explored expansion since its failed attempt to add Notre Dame in 1999. The Panthers would pitch a drastically improved athletic program that has invested heavily in new facilities for football and basketball and finished in the top 20 in both sports last season.

Pittsburgh also has at least one advocate in Joe Paterno, who wants Penn State to renew the schools' in-state rivalry.

But one Big Ten source said the league's interest in a championship game is "lukewarm at best" -- the financial boost would be minimal. Its sole motivation for expansion would be to enhance the value of its television product, something Pittsburgh doesn't accomplish because Penn State already provides that market.

West Virginia and Virginia Tech would both shop themselves around as well, but despite strong football programs, would have no logical suitor. The closest major conferences geographically are the ACC, which has shown little interest in either, and the SEC, which has even less. Conference USA would be considered a step down.

Imagine the potential plight of Virginia Tech, which could conceivably play in the BCS title game this season, then get kicked out of the BCS the next. In that scenario, the Hokies might become the East Coast equivalent of BYU, nationally respected but essentially ostracized from the national championship picture.

Not surprisingly, the school is lobbying hard to be one of the three included if the ACC expands.

"We live in the geographic footprint of the ACC," Virginia Tech AD Jim Weaver told The New York Times. "It would seem if they want to enhance football, they might want to look pretty seriously at Virginia Tech, because we've been pretty good the last 10 years."

There is, of course, one program besides Miami that could singlehandedly save the Big East's football stature, but it would be the longest of long shots.

Theoretically, commissioner Mike Tranghese could issue an ultimatum to Notre Dame, which already relies on the Big East for basketball and bowl partnerships: get in all the way, or get out.

He could try convincing the Irish their nationally ranked basketball programs would suffer without the league. He could allow them to keep their NBC deal for home games. And in a six- or seven-team league there'd still be plenty of room on the schedule for ND's many traditional rivals (USC, Michigan, Purdue, etc.).

Problem is, the Big East needs the Irish a lot more than the Irish need the Big East.

"We would always try to have Notre Dame in our bowl picture, even if that's in the form of an individual contract with the school," said Gator Bowl president Rick Catlett.

As for basketball, there's already momentum for a plan in which the Big East's I-A football schools would split off from its other members -- Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Providence and Seton Hall. Notre Dame could join those, as well as other Catholic schools like Xavier, DePaul or Marquette, in forming a pretty strong basketball conference.

Unfortunately, the football conference probably wouldn't be able to say the same thing.

It's a shame, because Big East football, once considered a laughingstock, has reached a new level the past couple seasons.

Last year, Miami played for the national championship while Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and West Virginia all finished in the national rankings. Going into this season, the 'Canes, Hokies and Panthers all figure to be in the mix for the preseason top 10.

For the first time, the league could make an argument for being in the same hemisphere as the Big Ten or Pac-10.

If the three schools leave, though, it may more closely resemble Conference USA.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.

To send a question or comment for Stewart's Mailbag, click here.

 

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