Conference crapshoot

Miami's ACC move a hot topic, but will it actually happen?

It seems all anyone wants to talk about this week is conference musical chairs, and why not? It's like playing fantasy football or making up NBA trades -- the possibilities are endless.

The reality, however, is that the ACC is a long way from agreeing on anything, nevertheless inviting Miami, nevertheless bringing about the demise of the Big East, nevertheless setting off a chain reaction throughout the rest of the country.

In the meantime, it sure is fun to talk about.

As a Terps fan, I have been very interested in what the experts' opinions have been on Miami. But as you stated they haven't even been invited yet. More because of basketball issues, I don't see seven ACC schools saying yes. Gary Williams likes the round robin ways of the ACC as it is. Do you really think seven ACC schools will say yes?
-- Wesley T. Cover, Columbia, Md.

Realignment? Want to see what a new ACC, Big East and basketball-only conference would look like? Here's Stewart's best guess.

Presumably, what's going on behind closed doors as we speak is John Swofford and the league's other expansion proponents are trying to convince schools like Maryland that the possible benefits from the football side will outweigh the negatives it would cause basketball. Obviously, Duke and North Carolina, where basketball is king, are a lost cause. But if you're Maryland or N.C. State, schools with burgeoning football programs, it may be worth it to toss a little basketball tradition out the window.

What many people don't realize is that football is a far more lucrative sport for athletic programs than basketball. The difference between the ACC sending, say, five teams to the NCAA tournament instead of four in a given year may mean an extra $1 million split among the schools. But getting a second BCS berth -- which the league hasn't accomplished yet -- means an extra $4.5 million, not to mention $6-$10 million annually from the proposed football championship game, not to mention a more valuable television contract. Gary Williams can probably make some good arguments against expansion, but can he counter that?

Historically, Miami has thrived on playing two tough teams, Florida and FSU, and mostly gimmes. What do they really gain going to the ACC? An extra loss or two would put them in a secondary bowl.
-- Richard Evans, Frederick, Md.

I don't know that that's an entirely accurate depiction, Richard. I would hardly consider Virginia Tech a gimme. And both last year and this year Miami is also playing Tennessee. So let's compare that to their potential schedule as an ACC team. They'd still play FSU, they'd still play Syracuse and Boston College, but they'd presumably drop one tough non-conference game, like a Florida or Tennessee now. So then is N.C. State/Maryland/Clemson/Georgia Tech substantially tougher than Virginia Tech/Tennessee/Pittsburgh/West Virginia? I'd say not.

Where they could get burned is that before, a loss to FSU would have no affect on their chances of a BCS automatic berth. But I think the league would take a cue from the SEC's treatment of Florida and Tennessee in the late '90s and have the 'Canes and 'Noles play early enough that the loser could still bounce back into national title contention or at least garner an at-large spot.

Where does Boston College get off thinking they belong in the ACC? I went to BC ('96), and though the football team is capable of big-time upsets (ask ND), it has not emerged as a perennial power as many had hoped during the Tom Coughlin years. Also, ACC football has more of a southern culture to it; like guys wearing ties and girls wearing sundresses to the games. B.C. so does not fit that mold. It is obvious what the Eagles would gain from the move, but what would the ACC gain from having BC join?
-- Tom McLaughlin, Fairfax, Va.

You've hit on one of the many key issues that's holding things up on the ACC's end. There's dispute over who that third team should be, BC or Virginia Tech? The interest in BC is purely TV-based -- Boston is the nation's No. 6 market, Blacksburg isn't even on the map. But many in the league are concerned over the same issues you mentioned. As for the school itself, BC just wants to do whatever it takes to remain in the BCS, whether it means joining an ill-suited league or not.

It's pretty simple - create a 16-team ACC:

ACC North: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Penn St., Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, Virginia Tech ACC South: The four N.C. schools, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami
-- Dennis Carlton, Chantilly, Va.

Football fans would love it, but how do you make a basketball schedule? And can you imagine the amount of travel involved for the tennis and cross-country teams?

But you do hit on one intriguing possibility shared by several other readers - the idea of the Big East luring Penn State. The aforementioned proposal is closer to the type of Eastern super league Joe Paterno championed for years before joining the Big Ten than is the present-day Big East. It's also no secret that JoePa's relationship with Jim Delany is tenuous at best following his spats with the refs last season, and the Nittany Lions haven't been as competitive in the league as they initially envisioned.

Last week I said Notre Dame was the only program that could save Big East football if Miami left -- make that Notre Dame and Penn State.

How can you possibly pick Maurice Clarett as the Heisman favorite when he isn't the best player on his own team? Chris Gamble was named team MVP, first pick in the spring game and the biggest reason why they won the championship.
--Tony, Florida

Hey, I'd be all for handing Gamble the Heisman if he plays defensive back the full season this year and has the same kind of impact. But as well all know, and as was documented on this site last year, he faces an uphill climb." Traditionally the voters have been nine times more inclined to reward a running back (36 winners) than a receiver or defensive back (four combined). It took nearly perfect circumstances for Charles Woodson, and unfortunately it would probably require the same for Gamble.

Stewart, how can you not have Iowa ranked in your Top 25? They have nearly all of their Big-Ten leading rush defense back, with capable replacements for the departures. Great skill position players in Fred Russell and Maurice Brown and another huge O-line.
--Marc, Chicago

Marc, what were the two biggest keys to Iowa's resurgence last season? Brad Banks and the nation's best offensive line. Who did the Hawkeyes lose from last season? Banks and four-fifths of that offensive line, not to mention All-America tight end Dallas Clark, top pass-rusher Colin Cole and top linebacker Fred Barr. No doubt there's still some talent left, but this particular season has all the makings of a rebuilding year.

I read your column all the time, and you have not answered my question. What do you think of the University of Hawaii? Do you think everyone is overlooking them in the polls?
Selawe Tau, Botswana Gaborone

As the great Axl Rose once said, all you need is just a little patience, my friend.

I think June Jones has certainly turned Hawaii into one of the top programs in the WAC and a title contender for this season. It's hard to imagine just how explosive that offense will be with Timmy Chang returning to a team that already threw for 5,406 yards last year.

But like I've said before, there's still a considerable gap between the upper-echelon BCS teams and even the best in other leagues like Marshall, TCU or in this case Hawaii, especially ones that don't play much defense. In considering whether or not to rank the Warriors in the preseason Top 25, you have to ask yourself: While they may win 9-10 games next season against the Nevadas and Tulsas, do you really think they could beat most of the other teams in those rankings? My guess is no, but we'll find out soon enough. Hawaii plays at USC the second week of the season.

That's all for this week. Keep those topics coming. I'll even throw out a few suggestions ...

Who will be Alabama's next coach? (We might as well start now.)

Do you think John Swofford would offer Mike Tranghese Clemson and half his ham sandwich for Syracuse and a bag of ho-hos?

And finally, when FOX does the inevitable and produces The Mike Price Story: A Fall From Grace, who will they cast in the roles of Price and Destiny? Same goes for the E! version, The Mike Price Story: Lots of Blurred-out Nudity, and the Lifetime version, Mike Price: Satan.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.

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