BCS or bust

Big East faces uphill climb to preserve status come 2005

How fitting it was that a few hours before Miami left the Big East in its rearview mirror Monday, a group of college presidents, athletic directors and commissioners were meeting in Chicago to begin discussions about the next generation of the BCS.

Fitting because as the Big East embarks on the process of picking up the pieces and plotting its future, the overriding challenge will be preserving its status among college football's ruling elite once the current BCS contract expires following the 2005 season.

"Our task is not easy, I'm not going to lie to you," said commissioner Mike Tranghese, who, ironically, serves as the BCS' coordinator. "We've lost two really good football programs."

As any athletic director or conference commissioner will tell you, it's the "marketplace" -- TV networks, bowl games, sponsors -- that ultimately determines which teams and leagues will merit inclusion in the sport's next postseason structure.

Reality says that the Big East's membership as constituted today (minus Miami and Virginia Tech) is not overly enticing to said marketplace. The league now faces the unenviable task of trying to change that perception in a relatively short period of time or risk losing critical revenue and exposure on which its programs have become dependent.

"If we weren't suspect without Miami, we clearly are without Miami and Virginia Tech," said Syracuse AD Jake Crouthamel. "What we need to do is position ourselves within the next three years so that whatever happens with the BCS, [there is] a place for us. Until we get our hands around this issue and get it resolved, we are all in a precarious position."

First off, there's the matter of keeping the remaining teams together. Given the league's precarious situation, it's got to be tempting to some of them to go off on their own direction. Many expect Pittsburgh or perhaps Syracuse to reach out to the Big Ten. And there are those within the ACC still lobbying to add Boston College as a 12th member.

Realistically, though, the Big Ten is no threat to expand on account of anyone but Notre Dame, and the ACC has to deal with issues stemming from its just-completed charade before beginning another one.

The more vexing question is whether the Big East's six remaining I-A football schools will remain aligned with the six others. There's believed to be a growing sentiment among the basketball schools to split off and form their own entity, possibly adding similar programs like Marquette and Xavier, but Tranghese, among others, is optimistic the conference can retain its present format.

"Whether we stay together or separate is probably the first question our presidents are going to have to answer," said Tranghese.

Once that's settled, it's on to the business of finding teams to replace Miami and Virginia Tech.

To field a football league at all, the Big East must get back to eight teams by 2005, the first year new NCAA I-A requirements go into effect. Connecticut has already been invited to join by then and may be asked to come a year earlier, but Temple is scheduled to be dismissed after the '04 season and league officials don't seem particularly moved to take the Owls back.

That means the Big East needs to have two new teams signed up by this time next year if they're going to be on board for the '05 season.

About the only certainty is that Notre Dame will not be one of them. While it's in the Irish's best interests to continue their bowl and basketball relationships with the Big East, officials there "have consistently told anyone who was willing to listen that they put a high degree of importance on their football independence," said Tranghese.

Ditto the Big Ten's Penn State. Although they would seem a more natural geographic fit with Syracuse and Pittsburgh than with Illinois and Iowa, the Nittany Lions would be hard-pressed to turn their back on the stability of the Big Ten.

The one slam-dunk invitee thus far appears to be Louisville, with its BCS-sized athletic budget ($32 million), competitive football team and high-profile basketball program. And the Cardinals are definitely interested ("Those are some very attractive schools to be partnered with," AD Tom Jurich told the Louisville Courier Journal).

Cincinnati is a similar program, and it would bring a built-in rivalry with the Cardinals. Marshall, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida and East Carolina have all been mentioned as well.

But while the trend among most conferences these days is the bigger, the better, the Big East needs to be more selective. It can't afford to dilute its product with so many mid-majors that the league becomes labeled one itself.

Therefore, while UCF and USF are rising programs in a football-rich state, they still don't yet have the recognition level to attract TV sets. Likewise, rurally situated ECU doesn't necessarily fit with the Big East's mostly metropolitan membership. And Memphis hasn't produced a winning football team in nine years.

"We can't just go out and pluck this team and that team unless we have a plan," said Rutgers AD Robert Mulcahy. "First of all, there are no Miami and Virginia Techs out there. They are two teams that have been in the top 10 and are going to stay there a while. We're going to have to build to it."

While the expansion process will be taking place off the field, the most important work the Big East can do may be on it.

It's easy to look at the league's membership today and wonder why the BCS would bother. But what if Pittsburgh, coming off a 9-4 season and top 20 ranking in 2002, made a surprise run to the championship game in '03 a la Virginia Tech a few years back? What if West Virginia, also 9-4 a year ago, replicated its undefeated regular seasons of 1988 and '93?

"We've got some good programs," said Tranghese. "We're going to have to win games. I don't think its going to be any more complicated than that."

That's asking a lot -- especially considering the 'Canes and Hokies will still be around next season -- but it may be the league's best hope of avoiding the unseemly fate known as BCS exile.

Speaking of which, officials within both the Big East and BCS seem to agree there's not much danger of it happening for the duration of the existing conference -- the Big East is a signatory member, and there's no clause in the contract that addresses change in membership.

After that, though, anything could happen.

As the time to devise a new postseason structure draws near, the teams that lie outside the six BCS conferences -- almost 50 percent of the Division 1-A membership -- are clamoring for some form of inclusion. Scenarios being discussed include adding a fifth bowl and/or reserving an at-large berth for the highest-ranked non-BCS team.

On the surface, the big boys have little incentive to listen. As Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany has pointed out many times, the gap existed long before the birth of the BCS, and the BCS has actually distributed revenue to the other leagues (about $40 million over the life of the contract) that didn't previously exist. Then there's that issue of the marketplace -- can ABC really sell a New Year's Day bowl game featuring Boise State or New Mexico?

But how will the BCS justify the continued exclusion of Conference USA or the Mountain West if the Big East more closely resembles those leagues than the ACC? And can the other BCS conferences afford to further their elitist stigma by kicking one of their own to the curb?

"I think at this point we're operating under the presumption that the Big East is a contract member of the Bowl Championship Series," said Big 12 commissioner Kevin Weiberg. "I don't believe we've had any discussion about them falling into another status."

As they begin what will likely be an arduous process, Big East presidents and athletic directors are presenting a unified, optimistic voice. They speak of their current crisis as just one of several challenges the league has faced in its 24-year history.

Make no mistake, though -- how this one is handled will go a long way toward determining whether the conference lives to 30.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.

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