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Breaking down the Derby field Posted: Friday May 03, 2002 2:47 PM
LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- It's not entirely true that Saturday's 128th Kentucky Derby is completely wide open. There are 19 horses; at least six of them have no shot whatsoever at winning the race. (It'sallinthechase, Danthebluegrassman, Ocean Sound, Lusty Latin, Request for Parole and Wild Horses, for the record. It'sallinthechase might still be running when the Preakness starts.) Four others would seem to have only the slimmest of chances: War Emblem, the one-dimensional frontrunner inherited by Bob Baffert less than a month before the Derby; the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Proud Citizen; George Steinbrenner's Blue Burner; and Castle Gandolfo all would need a miraculous alignment of the stars to win the race. That leaves nine with a realistic shot: Easy Grades: I watched him finish second to Came Home in the Santa Anita Derby, and afterward jockey Gary Stevens told me that his horse had a chin strap/bridle problem, otherwise he would have won. Maybe. He's a good, solid closer, but Stevens happily jumped off for another mount. Private Emblem: Impressive winner of the Arkansas Derby, but he hasn't run against this class of horse. Doesn't mean he can't, but it's a leap of faith. Essence of Dubai: It's an intramural sport in the racing game to rip Godolfin Racing for trying to win the Derby from halfway around the world. However, it will eventually take the Run for the Roses. Essence of Dubai is an athletic horse who has gone 10 furlongs. He's got a shot. Harlan's Holiday: Trainer Kenny McPeek is a good guy and his family is a terrific story. But I think Harlan's Holiday peaked in the Florida Derby and might not hit the board here. Came Home: Lots of speed, lots of courage, no pedigree. Bloodline people are utterly convinced he'll fall apart in the last furlong. I'm not, but he ran awfully slowly down the Santa Anita stretch. Winning here is asking a lot. Johannesburg: I watched him breeze Friday morning at Keeneland. He's a still a beautiful, leggy animal with a terrific gait. He's filled out some since winning the Breeders' Cup. But man, oh, man, so much to overcome. One lifetime race on dirt, one race at age three, shipped overseas, never setting foot on this track. Seems like too much. Saarland: Another sweet story, were the Phipps family to get a Derby winner just after the death of its patriarch. Saarland is 17 hands high with a magnificent distance pedigree. But he's never shown the type of nimble, mid-race burst that so often wins the Derby. I say he rumbles home in third. Medaglia d'Oro: Trainer Bobby Frankel never rushes a horse. He's here and confident, and this horse has gotten better with each passing race. Scary part: Frankel says if he wins the Derby, then he'll get really tough. Even more scary: It's been 84 years since any horse won the Derby off fewer than five lifetime starts. This horse has four. Doesn't mean a thing, but like I said, scary. I put him second. Perfect Drift: Is this the year for a gelding (no winners since 1929) -- who came out of a prep race six weeks ago in the minor leagues at Turfway Park and spent Derby week at a low-key training center near Louisville Airport -- to win the Derby? Perfect Drift is fast and fresh and ready. He wins. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Layden is a regular contributor to
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