Challenging War Emblem

Rival trainers are strategizing for the Preakness

Now they tell us it was all so obvious. Of course War Emblem got loose on the lead in the Kentucky Derby, and of course nobody could run him down off a moderate pace.

D. Wayne Lukas, who trains Derby runner-up Proud Citizen, told us so. "The race was very readable," he said this week outside the stakes barn at Pimlico.

Ken McPeek, whose Harlan's Holiday was the Derby favorite (and finished a very unthreatening seventh), told us so, too. "I studied the race a week beforehand and I knew there was no other speed," he said.

Two weeks have passed, and and on Saturday it will be time to run the Preakness. There is a new dilemma for all of the trainers: What to do about War Emblem this time? Do they know, as with the Kentucky Derby, how the horse will run? Or did they really not know the first time that a $20,000 yearling sold three weeks before the Run for the Roses could keep going all the way to the wire? And no matter what they know, what can they do about it?

The Preakness presents one of the most fascinating of all horse-racing conundrums: A fast horse has proven he can win on the lead. The obvious response for any horseman trying to beat War Emblem is to challenge him with early speed and not let him have that early lead. But ... can any horse burn out War Emblem and not also burn himself out? That's the rub.

Battle tested Click the image to launch the clip Trainer Bob Baffert says War Emblem was a dark horse in the Kentucky Derby and suggests people not overlook him in the Preakness. Start Video Plus Visit Video Plus for all the latest video and audio.

First, consider War Emblem. There are a lot of very smart and skilled handicappers out there who threw out War Emblem 30 seconds into analyzing the Derby. Fact is, almost nobody put him on the board. Yet, he won.

Cynics have said the victory was a fluke, that he took an unchallenged lead and only had to run three-eighths of the mile. Fine. Maybe all that's true. But he wasn't running all that slowly early. And then his last quarter-mile was the fastest in the field and nobody was gaining at the end. Even Lukas acknowledges, "It's obvious he's got a high cruising speed."

So War Emblem is a genuine horse. How do you beat him?

As soon as he hobbled on his broken ankle to the Derby finish line two weeks ago, McPeek said, "Boy, I wish Booklet had been here." Well, Booklet is here, and trainer John Ward has promised to challenge War Emblem on the front. But Ward drew post position 10, outside War Emblem, which indicates that he might ask rider Pat Day, a keen judge of pace with soft hands, to rate Booklet. In any case, Booklet is a fast-turnover sprinter. To beat War Emblem to the first turn would be suicidal.

Menacing Dennis is a California sprinter who seems unlikely to last in this company past six furlongs. He also drew outside War Emblem, mirroring Booklet's problem.

Lukas entered two horses: Proud Citizen and Table Limit, a longshot whose last two races were at seven furlongs. On Wednesday morning he said that Table Limit was not a rabbit, but on Wednesday afternoon at the post-position draw, he put Table Limit one spot outside War Emblem. It seems obvious he will press the Derby winner with Table Limit. That is the biggest pacing threat. Lukas insists that he wouldn't sacrifice one horse (Table Limit) so that another (Proud Citizen) could win, but frankly, I'm skeptical. I think he might do exactly that.

But I also believe in War Emblem at this point. "The key question in this race," War Emblem's embattled trainer, Bob Baffert, said this week, "isn't, Can War Emblem rate? It's, Can they keep up with him?"

They can, but only sacrificially. I think War Emblem will be on or near the lead and he will run fast fractions in hand. He will dismiss the speed and then he will have to deal with Proud Citizen and Medaglia D'Oro in the lane. He trounced Proud Citizen in the Derby and is just plain better. In the end, it's Medaglia D'Oro who will get closest. War Emblem beats him by a neck at the wire.

And we all go to Belmont.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Layden is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send him a question or comment.

 

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