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Betting on War Emblem Posted: Friday June 07, 2002 10:23 AM
At this point, you're either a believer or you're not a believer. You have either gotten past the fact that War Emblem was purchased by a Saudi prince just three weeks before the Kentucky Derby or it still bothers you to the point that you cannot make rational judgments about the horse that, on Saturday afternoon at Belmont Park, will try to win the Triple Crown. You have either dismissed the early concerns that War Emblem has versatility and distance issues that will prevent him from winning the classic races against quality opponents or you remain skeptical. You either believe that he will win the Belmont or you do not. With apologies to both the Monkees (original) and Smash Mouth (Shrek version), I'm a believer. It's possible War Emblem will lose the Belmont because it's a horse race. Stuff happens. But here is what D. Wayne Lukas -- not a believer to the 10th power, by the way, but for competitive reasons, not practical ones -- told me on Tuesday afternoon while we sat in his office at Churchill Downs (Lukas flew to New York on Wednesday). "I won't lie to you," he said. "If every horse in the race gets a perfect run, he's going to be tough to beat. Real tough to beat." I agree with Lukas. Here's why: My view of the race isn't clouded by any dislike of War Emblem owner Prince Ahmed bin Salman of The Thoroughbred Corporation or trainer Bob Baffert. Prince Ahmed is evasive and, at times, silly. And he's Saudi. I can deal with that. He's a horse owner. Many of them are rich and quirky. Some of them are also Muslim. It's just not a big deal in this arena. And as for buying the horse late, he got lucky. Period. Baffert, who also bugs people by being candid, also got lucky. A bloodstock agent named Don Brauer found War Emblem and brokered a deal for Baffert, and now's he's sitting on the Triple Crown. But make no mistake, Baffert has made War Emblem better. As for the Belmont, it's no gimme. It's a mile and a half, and there should be early speed pressing War Emblem. Half the trainers in the field have horses entered largely because of the presence of Wiseman's Ferry, the front-running Lone Star Derby winner converted from grass to dirt by trainer Niall O'Callaghan. They all envision Wiseman's Ferry pressing War Emblem for a mile, then picking up the pieces when both horses crumble. Yet on Thursday morning O'Callaghan said, "Am I going to run with Baffert's horse for a mile? Is that what I'm going to do?" Trainers never tell the whole truth, but I'm not convinced that Wiseman's Ferry is going for War Emblem's throat right out of the gate. I think O'Callaghan, a feisty Irishman who is rooting for his native country in the World Cup, wants to take a shot at winning the race. Therefore, he'll let Jorge Chavez sit off War Emblem. But here's the rub: I'm so enamored of War Emblem's beautiful, light-footed stride that I think he could handle six brisk (not lightning) furlongs with Wiseman's Ferry and then go on. I don't think Lukas' Proud Citizen can beat him. Couldn't beat him in the Derby. Couldn't beat him in the Preakness. I know: He was a little short in the Derby, had a bad trip in the Preakness. Doesn't allow for the margins, in my opinion. I just think War Emblem is better. I'm betting Derby show horse Perfect Drift lacks class and Peter Pan winner Sunday Break is short. Most of all, I'm betting that War Emblem is special. I'm betting that he can overcome almost any scenario that develops on Saturday, that he has matured enough to relax ever so slightly in the face of speed, that he will relish the 10 furlongs. I'm betting that we'll see history. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Layden is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send him a question or comment.
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