Early indicators

Two Breeders' Cup races could be window into the future

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. -- Horse trainer Shug McGaughey, a man whose wonderfully marble-mouthed Kentucky drawl and slow morning walk are pulled straight from central casting, stood in the rain Thursday morning and talked about the future. "I want to win the Derby someday," McGaughey said. "I don't care if I win it with a filly or a colt." He spoke on the eve of the 19th Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships, which will take place Saturday at Arlington Park, outside Chicago.

He spoke about his brilliant 2-year-old filly Storm Flag Flying, who will be the favorite in the Juvenile Fillies' race. In fairness to McGaughey, a polite man who lives for his chosen sport, he didn't bring up the Derby. I did that. But it didn't take McGaughey long to warm to the subject, even in bone-chilling cold and steady rain on the track's backside.

Here's why: Among the Breeders' Cup's eight races, two are for 2-year-olds: the Juvenile Fillies and the Juvenile. Each race carries a $1 million purse, placing both among the richest horse races in the world. But understand this: Two-year-old races are not run in a vacuum. People who watch them have one eye on the finish line and one eye on next May, trying to discern if somewhere among the Breeders' Cup babies is the winner of next year's Kentucky Derby.

(This phenomenon, by the way, is hardly unique to horse racing. We sports fans can't watch a college football game without wondering what Mel Kiper Jr. thinks of the State U. tailback's draftability. We always look ahead to "the next level.")

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile has been a lousy predictor of Derby success. In an oft-quoted statistic, no horse has won the Juvenile (or the Juvenile Fillies) as a 2-year-old and gone on to win the Derby at 3. "The good 2-year-olds are precocious," said Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel, who will saddle eight Breeders' Cup horses, none of them juveniles. "It takes a pretty special horse to go short [distances] at 2, and then go a mile and a quarter at 3." Asked if he likes any of the current crop, Frankel said, "Not really."

Frankel's point is the one most often stressed by horsemen. Just because a 2-year-old can win at seven furlongs or a mile doesn't mean he'll have the class to win at 10 furlongs half a year later. But I think this year might be different.

First of all, while there's some truth in the stat comparing Breeders' Cup 2-year-olds with Derby winners, there's a bit of a lie, too. Consider: Point Given, who ran a lousy Derby but proved himself the best 2-year-old in America in 2001, was beaten by a nose in the 2000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Secretariat was a 2-year-old champion. So was Affirmed. The great ones show their greatness.

Second, Saturday's juvenile races will be stretched from 1 1/16 miles to a mile and an eighth. The change, made to accommodate Arlington Park's short homestretch, is controversial. "It's really too far for these 2-year-olds to run right now," said trainer Bob Baffert, who nonetheless has entered three good ones in the Juvenile. But it will also provide a window into the future. Contrary to Frankel's thinking, we will no longer be looking at proven sprinters trying to stretch out, we will be looking at racehorses trying to run far. It's a long way from 1 1/16 miles to nine furlongs (and soooo much farther to the Derby's distance of a mile and a quarter), so we will learn something more this year.

I would love to have seen trainer John Ward's Sky Mesa run nine furlongs after winning three starts and seemingly craving more real estate to run. But he's out with an injury discovered Friday morning. I'm anxious to see Baffert's Vindication, a son of Seattle Slew, stretch out; Baffert thinks he can go all day. Most of all, I want to watch Storm Flag Flying, to see if McGaughey has a filly worth taking to the Derby.

Perhaps all of them will fold up like accordions in the stretch. Perhaps the winner of next year's Derby is gamboling in a field somewhere right now, maturing late. But this time I'm not sure. I think Saturday's juvenile winners are worth watching into the spring. For real.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Layden is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send him a question or comment.

 

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