Revved for the Roses

Don't overlook Derby horses of Baffert, Lukas

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- The Kentucky Derby teaches lessons. It educates horsemen and bettors. Sometimes those lessons take, sometimes they do not. One year ago, the public sent off two-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert's War Emblem at 20-1 and four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas' Proud Citizen at 23-1.

Good sense was behind those numbers. Or so it seemed at post time. Baffert had spent nearly $1 million of Saudi prince Ahmed bin Salman's money to buy War Emblem less than three weeks before the Derby. Given that every horse in his own stable of 3-year-olds had failed to become a Derby contender, the move seemed desperate and ill advised. War Emblem had won the Illinois Derby impressively, but had done so on the front, without pressure, on a speed-favoring racetrack. It seemed like Baffert just wanted to be part of his favorite party.

Meanwhile, Lukas trotted out Proud Citizen. A month earlier Lukas had shocked pundits by tossing the colt into the Santa Anita Derby, where he was trounced. But Proud Citizen came back and won the Lexington Stakes two weeks prior to the Derby, so Lukas entered him in the Run for the Roses. It seemed a hurried decision, but Lukas likes the Derby party, too.

What happened that day remains a fresh memory, almost a year later. War Emblem raced out to an easy lead and cruised for a mile before opening up in the stretch and winning Baffert his third Derby. Proud Citizen ran a solid second. An exacta pairing the horses of Baffert and Lukas, two of the most successful trainers in the history of the toughest race in America, paid a whopping $1,300.80.

Look back and the picture becomes clearer. In a very short time, Baffert made War Emblem a better horse. Not tons better, but better. Trainers who recalled the speed duel that compromised favorite Point Given and others in 2001 had instructed their riders to stay off the pace, leaving War Emblem alone on the lead. In hindsight, his performance became logical.

Proud Citizen, it turns out, was getting better. Lukas would explain later that he had entered Proud Citizen in the Santa Anita Derby just to tighten him up, with no intention of winning. It was a prep for the Lexington Stakes, and that race was a prep for the Derby. It turns out Proud Citizen came to Louisville on the rise, a dangerous horse. More hindsight, validated by the race.

The bigger picture is that Baffert and Lukas know how to win the Derby. "A lot of trainers come here and they're not sure what to do," said Bobby Frankel, who has Saturday's favorite, Empire Maker, and solid contender Peace Rules. "They get all excited." Winning the Derby is both a precise science and a mystical one, part work and part luck. To be sure, Baffert and Lukas get good horses from people with money to spend. That is part of their gift. But they also ignore convention and other people.

They are back this year. They will not be similarly ignored, but nor will they be favorites.

Baffert has Indian Express, a tall, long-legged son of Indian Charlie, who came to Baffert's barn via Utah and Panama and was purchased in March for $150,000. In the week before the Santa Anita Derby, Baffert showed Indian Express to me and another writer outside his California barn. "Good-lookin' son of a gun, isn't he?" Baffert said that morning. Indian Express was, and in that race he stalked solid fractions, took the lead and nearly held off Buddy Gil at the line. It was a totally unexpected performance and won him a trip to the Derby.

Lukas has Scrimshaw, who was bought last year by Bob and Beverly Lewis for $550,000 and who ran poorly in two winter prep races. After throat surgery and more than two months off, Scrimshaw, like Proud Citizen last year, won the Lexington two weeks ago. The finishing time was slow and the competition suspect. But it was a winner for Lukas, two weeks before the Derby. "We all know what Wayne can do," Bob Lewis told me Wednesday night after the post-position draw.

In 2002, doing my reporting for Sports Illustrated in the weeks and days leading up to the Derby, I nearly ignored Lukas' and Baffert's horses. Not this year. If Frankel's Empire Maker is sound, he's the best horse. If Peace Rules gets an easy lead, he's tough to beat. The Derby is all about ifs, and Baffert and Lukas often have been position to benefit from somebody else's mistake or misfortune.

Recent history suggests that it's unwise to toss out the Big Two.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Layden covers horse racing for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send him a question or comment.

 

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