Empire (Maker) strikes back

Jockey Jerry Bailey gives Derby favorite an edge

Anyone trying to pick a winner in the Kentucky Derby should begin by putting a few images in his or her mind:

1. Last year's front-running victory by War Emblem, in which winning jockey Victor Espinoza crossed the line without a speck of dirt on his silks and raised his stick to the heavens.

2. The 2001 Derby, in which Songandaprayer and Balto Star towed a closely packed field through searing fractions of 22.25 seconds for the 1/4 mile, 44.86 for the 1/2 and 1:09.25 for 3/4, setting up closing Monarchos for the victory. The split times for 1/2 and 3/4 miles were the fastest in the history of the Derby, and both of trainer Bob Baffert's horses, favored Point Given and Congaree, were much too close to the hot pace.

Why remember these images? Because trainers and jockeys are only human when it comes to competing in the most important horse race in the world. Mistakes made one year often are not corrected until the next, which is much too late. War Emblem was allowed to go last year not only because there wasn't much speed in the race, but also because trainers and riders didn't want a repeat of the '01 fiasco. Baffert knew it, and that's why he was so quietly confident all week about War Emblem.

Back to images:

3. Florida Derby, March 15. Bobby Frankel-trained Empire Maker destroys the field by nearly 10 lengths. It was the most dominant performance of the Derby prep season, accomplished while sitting close to an honest pace.

4. Santa Anita Derby, April 5. Buddy Gil, a gelding, outfights Baffert's surprising Indian Express to win the Santa Anita Derby in a grueling stretch run.

5. Illinois Derby, April 5. In the same race that launched War Emblem last year (but at a different racetrack), Ten Most Wanted suddenly matures into a monster and rolls to a four-length victory.

6. Blue Grass Stakes, April 12. Peace Rules, Frankel's other Derby horse, goes wire-to-wire and holds off Brancusi.

Here's what I think I've learned from these images, and from interviewing trainers, owners and jockeys to report on the Derby for Sports Illustrated: Peace Rules is a terrific horse who has been overlooked because he's in the same barn as Empire Maker. If the race unfolds like last year's and Peace Rules gets an easy lead, he'll win by a huge margin. However (big however), they're not going to run last year's race. I'd like to pick Peace Rules to win the Derby, but it's going to be too fast up front, compromising him and Indian Express and, to a lesser extent, Buddy Gil. I think those three will beat each other up and have too little left at the finish.

The race will benefit a closer or a classy stalker who doesn't get too close to what promises to be a fast pace. To me, that includes the following horses: Empire Maker, Ten Most Wanted, Scrimshaw and Atswhatimtalknbout.

D. Wayne Lukas-trained Scrimshaw won the Lexington Stakes two weeks ago, and Lukas impressively has gotten him to the Derby. But the horse's slow closing time in that race scares me. Atswhatimtalknbout, the Hollywood horse partly owned by Steven Spielberg and the Seabiscuit gang, was flying at the finish of the San Felipe Stakes but ran dully in the Santa Anita Derby. After not racing at all as a 2-year-old, the Derby will be Atswhatimtalknbout's sixth race of 2003. Too many. I think he needs rest, not 10 furlongs.

That leaves the impressive 6-5 favorite, Empire Maker, and hot buzz horse Ten Most Wanted. The latter will have Pat Day on the his back, while he nurses a sore back of his own. Day is one of the shrewdest pace judges in racing history, a big plus. But Empire Maker has Jerry Bailey, a six-time Eclipse winner who has been the best rider in America for several years.

I like that edge. I'm picking Empire Maker, in what could be a sensational stretch run.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Layden covers horse racing for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send him a question or comment.

 

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