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Funny Cide should have last laugh Look for Derby champ to find Preakness winner's circlePosted: Friday May 16, 2003 5:03 PM
BALTIMORE -- Horse racing's Triple Crown has become one of the most elusive achievements in sports. Only 11 horses have won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, three since 1948 and none since Affirmed in 1978. Yet there has been a more recent trend. It has become commonplace for horses to win the first two legs and fail in the third. Four times in the last six years has a thoroughbred won the Derby and Preakness: Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999) and War Emblem (2002). Even the exceptions strengthen the trend: In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby and ran second in the Preakness. In 2001, Point Given went off as the Derby favorite, lost, and then dominated the Preakness (and the Belmont). It has become commonplace enough for horses to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown to suggest that it is not coincidence. The Preakness is 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Derby, on a speed-favoring, oddly shaped track. Its fields are smaller than the Derby's. (On Saturday, 10 horses will go to the post -- six fewer than did for the Derby). Perhaps the answer is simple: While racing luck has a huge influence in the outcome of the Derby, the horse that wins the race must be dead fit. That horse will remain dead fit two weeks later. Derby winner Funny Cide is the morning-line favorite for the Preakness at 7-5. Derby third-place finisher Peace Rules is 8-5. Many smart people would argue that these two are a cut above the other eight horses in the field. I enjoyed writing in the May 12 issue of Sports Illustrated about Funny Cide's unusual roots -- his common-folk owners, his crusty trainer, the fact that he is a gelding who had never worked at Churchill Downs. But I've watched his Derby win on video many times since that day. Funny Cide was no fluke. It's true that jockey Jose Santos gave the horse a terrific ride and that he encountered no big trouble. But Funny Cide also stayed close to an honest pace, moved before reaching the turn and kept going for a long time. It was a brave, tough victory. His biggest issue in the Preakness is post position. Funny Cide breaks from the 9 hole, and could easily be left far outside on the first turn, which can be deadly. Santos says the colt is fast enough to get into a good position without tiring. Trainer Barclay Tagg notes that Secretariat sat fourth entering the first turn in 1973 and circled the field effortlessly. "I'm not saying Funny Cide is Secretariat," Tagg added. My gut feeling here is that Funny Cide will do what Santos says. He'll run close enough to stay in the race, make a move in the middle of the race and gut it out. Nobody knows if it's time for the gelding to bounce and throw in a bad performance. But on form, at least, he should win. The primary threat is Peace Rules, who was even closer to the Derby pace and held up very well down the Churchill lane. On replays, however, I'm amazed by how hard Edgar Prado was riding Peace Rules down the backstretch. For more than half the race the horse ran while tiring, which leads me to think that he's even more likely than Funny Cide to crash and burn at Pimlico. Of the others, D. Wayne Lukas -trained Ten Cents A Shine scares me. Like most folks, I didn't think he belonged in the Derby, but he beat half the field despite breaking terribly. He's been beaten 87 lengths in his last four races, yet Lukas seems to think he's awakening. Bob Baffert 's Senor Swinger, purchased for more than $1 million in March (sound familiar?), won a grass stakes on Derby Day in Kentucky. He could also be a threat. Yet I keep hearing what Ten Cents A Shine owner Ken Ramsey said to me on Thursday night, in validating his own participation: "These horses aren't Secretariat and Spectacular Bid." I don't think they are, either. That's why I think Funny Cide can beat them again. The Belmont, however, is another story. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Layden covers horse racing for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send him a question or comment. |
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