U.S. sprinting may have hit a dry spell

Interesting talk last week by former U.S. Olympian Michael Johnson to British media outlets. MJ -- who holds the world record in both the 200 meters and 400 meters and who has three individual Olympic gold medals (and would have won a fourth, but came down with food poisoning in 1992) -- suggested that not only did he think it was unlikely for Americans Maurice Greene and Tim Montgomery to finish 1-2 (or 2-1) at this year's World Championships in Athletics, but that it's very possible neither of them would win.

This is not the first time Johnson has said something bombastic to the British media (or written something bombastic under his own byline in a British newspaper). In his post-Olympic life, MJ has become noisy in a way that he never was until the very end of his competitive career, when Greene induced him into a public rhubarb over their on-again, off-again rivalry that eventually fizzled when both men pulled up lame in the 200 at the 2000 Olympic Trials.

But never mind that. In whatever fashion Johnson chose to make this point, it's a good one.

Last week at the adidas Oregon Track Classic outside Portland, three-time world 100-meter champion and 2000 Olympic gold medalist Greene was soundly beaten in the 100, running a very pedestrian 10.33 seconds. Before that meet, Greene told my colleague, Grant Wahl, "There's a lot of people saying that I'm on the downside, that I'm done. ... It's my job to prove those people wrong."

I'm not sure it's going to be that easy. Greene dominated the competition from 1997 through 2001, a terrific run that even Johnson acknowledges. Greene will turn 29 in July, which isn't too old to be successful, but it is old enough to suggest that he's nearer the end of his career than the beginning. He hasn't run a 100 under 10 seconds since the middle of last summer. Greene has fought a lot of battles in an event that punishes runners, mentally and physically.

This year Mo says he's planning to run mostly 200s, which is curious. It's true that he won the '99 world title in the 200, but he's never been a pure 200-meter runner, while many have said that he is the purest 100-meter runner in history.

When Greene went to Los Angeles to work with coach John Smith in the fall of 1996, he was broke and hungry. Smith pushed him and Greene trained like a madman. That work ethic paid off. He has been one of the toughest competitors in the history of sprinting. I've known the guy since '97, and he has also grown emotionally. He's generous with his time and his money and relishes serving as a role model for kids.

It would be good for the sport if he ran very fast for another five years. I'm just not sure he can do it.

Montgomery is another story altogether. Half a year younger than Greene, TiMo has always had great top-end speed but shaky commitment. In 2000 he hooked up with coach Trevor Graham, nearly won the 2001 world title, and then took down Greene's world record last summer.

Last winter he fired Graham and joined partner Marion Jones in a dalliance with defrocked Canadian coach Charlie Francis. Since mid-winter Montgomery has had no coach. Jones is pregnant with their child and, obviously, taking the year off, so he can't draw from her extraordinary fire every day in workouts.

Realistically, what Montgomery learned while training with Graham for the past two years should carry him through much of this season. However, he pulled out of this weekend's Prefontaine Classic with an injury, which is always a red flag. TiMo needs to be pushed. With no coach and no Marion, I worry about the guy.

In the bigger picture, the potential decline of Greene and Montgomery could expose the weakness of Team USA. From a post-World War II, non-boycott high of 30 track and field medals at the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona, the U.S. has slipped into the high teens and stayed there. At the 2001 worlds in Edmonton, the U.S. won 19 medals, but three came from Jones, two from Montgomery and one from Greene. Greene and Jones have been medal machines since '97.

With Jones out and Mo and TiMo struggling, the U.S. medal total at this August's worlds in Paris could flirt with the mid- and low teens. Perhaps Justin Gatlin will be the next great U.S. sprinter. Or maybe high school star Allyson Felix can replace Jones.

But make no mistake: These are big shoes to fill.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Layden covers horse racing for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send him a question or comment.

 

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