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Easy pickings History says Sorenstam will take Women's Open
SOUTHERN PINES, N.C. -- Who is going to win the U.S. Women's Open this week at Pine Needles Lodge and Golf Club? While there are many contenders, you really don't need to be an expert to pick Annika Sorenstam. She has already captured five events this season, including the first major, the Nabisco Championship -- plus she won the Open the last time it was held at Pine Needles, in 1996. But then again you can't really discount the likes of Karrie Webb, Se Ri Pak, Lorie Kane or Juli Inkster. A closer look, however, shows that some trends and patterns prevail from year to year at the national championship. With this in mind, one clear-cut choice emerges out of the 150-person field. Only two players -- Mickey Wright and Carol Mann -- have won the event prior to the Open and then the Open, so you can eliminate last week's winner, Carin Koch. No one with the first name Kelly, no matter what the spelling, has ever won the Open, which means Kelly Robbins, Kelli Kuehne and Kellee Booth will not stand in the winner's circle.
Nobody under the age of 20 has ever captured the Open championship. So 13-year-old Morgan Pressel and the other four teenagers will have to wait few more years. Only one amateur has ever hoisted the trophy -- Catherine Lacoste in 1967 -- so you can eliminate all 20 in this year's championship, including former U.S Amateur champion Leigh Ann Hardin and current NCAA champion Candy Hanneman. Brenda Corrie-Kuehn and Kristi Albers are both pregnant and neither will deliver this weekend because no twosome has ever cradled the Open trophy. No player using a long putter has ever won, which means Beth Daniel and Kris Tschetter don't have much of a chance. Never has a player whose last name starts with an 'F' won -- so say goodbye to Cindy Figg-Currier, Allison Finney, Nina Foust, Amy Fruhwirth, Yuri Fudon and Akiko Fukushima. And no one whose surname begins with an 'E', 'O', 'T', 'V' or 'Z' has gained a title, either, so throw out the likes of Michelle Ellis, Stacy Orscell, Rachel Teske, Lynn Valentine and Jean Zedlitz. You can also boot the 41 players who are making their first appearance in the Women's Open. Pak and Sorenstam both won in their second attempts, but not since 1956, when Kathy Cornelius triumphed at Northland Country Club in Duluth, Minn., has an Open newcomer gone on to be toasted as champion. LPGA Tour rookies like Amy Langhals and Nicole Materne will need a little more experience. No one playing on a special exemption from the USGA has won, so Liselotte Neumann will not be taking home her second trophy. Eliminate the 19 non-LPGA Tour professionals, who should be playing at this week's Futures Tour event in Sussex, Wis., and not at the Open. The likes of Marine Monnet and Raquel (Pancho) Carriedo may one day make the LPGA, but they are not quite ready for prime time. By the way, Laura Davies, in 1987 at Plainfield Country Club, was the last non-member of the LPGA Tour to capture an Open. Congratulations to those who made it through the rigorous sectional qualifying, but don't let the door hit you on the way out. You can dismiss Helen Alfredsson, Maria Hjorth, Donna Andrews, Catrin Nilsmark and the 87 others who earned their spots at one of the 11 sites. Since the USGA adopted its current sectional qualifying format in 1976, no qualifier has ever won the Open. April showers may bring May flowers, but not at the Open. No player has ever won with a bouquet of fairway woods in her bag. Those short hitters -- Vicki Goetze-Ackerman, Mi Hyun Kim, Emilee Klein and Leta Lindley -- and their 9- and 11-woods will have to wait for their gardens to grow. We can also forget about 13 players over the age of 40. Four of those on the list -- Inkster, Betsy King, Rosie Jones and Jane Geddes -- are hard to dismiss, since they account for four U.S. Open victories. But if history prevails, they have a better chance of winning Survivor. The oldest Open champion was 40-year-old Fay Crocker at the 1955 event in Wichita, Kan. We can also eliminate all eight golfers from north of the border -- Claudia Beauchesne, Angela Buzminski, A.J. Eathorne, Nancy Harvey, Kane, Marie Josée Rouleau, Shelly Stouffer and Heather Wilbur -- who would have better luck trying for the Stanley Cup. But why just single out our Canadian neighbors, eh? Let's give the boot to a veritable League of Nations. Players born in Colombia ( Marisa Baena ), the Dominican Republic ( Dominique Brooks Gagnon ), India ( Smriti Mehra ), Japan ( Aki Nakano ), New Zealand ( Marnie McGuire ), the Philippines ( Jennifer Rosales ), Peru ( Jenny Lidback ), Scotland ( Janice Moodie ), Spain ( Paula Marti ) and Taiwan ( Yu Ping Lin ) will all get their passports stamped, but none will be paying taxes on the $500,000 first-place check. Besides the United States, only five other countries -- France, Sweden, Korea, England and Australia -- have produced an Open champ. However, since 2001 has been the year of the international players, who have taken 13 of the first 15 LPGA events, let's just say that the winner will probably not be draped in Old Glory. So don't expect any fireworks from remaining Americans -- Meg Mallon, Pat Hurst, Brandie Burton and Dottie Pepper. That leaves us with just a handful of players: Sophie Gustafson, Davies, Pak, Grace Park, Karrie Webb and the Sorenstam sisters, Charlotta and Annika. All would be worthy champions, but we have to pick one. Webb and Davies have yet to win this year, so it's hard to see either breaking through at a major. No one who went through three different hair colors in one year has won the Open, which means Gustafson should have stuck with red. Players are saying that Pine Needles is no walk in the park, which can't be good for Grace or Se Ri (whose last name was shortened to Pak in a 1998 passport screwup). Finally, no pair of siblings still using their maiden names have ever won the U.S Women's Open. So sorry, Charlotta. Annika gets the bigger piece of cake again. Tom Hanson, a regular contributor to Sports Illustrated's Golf Plus section,
is a longtime caddie on the LPGA Tour. Click here
to send him a question or comment.
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